Week 2 · 2026-09-20
Pittsburgh Steelers
10-8 in 2025
at
New England Patriots
15-3 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
Pittsburgh wins if
Middling offense (22 pts/g) beats Patriots' elite defense (18 allowed).
New England wins if
Elite offense (28 pts/g) beats Steelers' middling defense (23 allowed).
Watch
Patriots' run game should test Steelers; Steelers own the turnover battle.
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
SteelersPatriots
22.4 50thPoints / game88th 28.1
23.2 50thPoints allowed / game94th 17.9
5.1 34thYards / play100th 6.2
101.1 22thRush yards / game88th 129.8
210.0 34thPass yards / game91th 262.6
38% 3rd-down % 43%
0.7 94thTurnover margin / game64th 0.1
What it says. Patriots lead on 5 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is yards / play, Patriots 100th against 34th.
Each offense against the other defense
When Pittsburgh has the ball
Passing
Steelers offense
210 yds/g 34th
Patriots defense
203.9 allowed 81th
Rushing
Steelers offense
101.1 yds/g 22th
Patriots defense
100.9 allowed 84th
When New England has the ball
Passing
Patriots offense
262.6 yds/g 91th
Steelers defense
260.4 allowed 9th
Rushing
Patriots offense
129.8 yds/g 88th
Steelers defense
115.9 allowed 56th
Player spotlights
5 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
SteelersJaylen WarrenRB
60+ Rush Yards
59.7 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Tough matchup-7 ydsPlayers lose 7 yards against their own form facing this run defence, 7th-toughest run defence of 32
DK MetcalfWR
40+ Rec Yards
48.6 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
PatriotsDrake MayeQB
250+ Pass Yards
263.6 avg · cleared 80% (8/10)
Soft on paperA soft matchup on paper, 5th-softest pass defence of 32 — but across three seasons, soft defences have not produced above-baseline games, so we make no call
TreVeyon HendersonRB
60+ Rush Yards
71.0 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Soft on paperA soft matchup on paper, 4th-softest run defence of 32 — but across three seasons, soft defences have not produced above-baseline games, so we make no call
Hunter HenryTE
40+ Rec Yards
51.5 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Matchup not a factor
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
SteelersWWLWL3-2 last 5 · 19.0 for · 21.2 againstPatriotsLWWWW4-1 last 5 · 31.0 for · 16.4 against