Week 2 · 2026-09-21
Indianapolis Colts
8-9 in 2025
at
Kansas City Chiefs
6-11 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
Indianapolis wins if
Strong offense (27 pts/g) beats Chiefs' elite defense (19 allowed).
Kansas City wins if
Middling offense (21 pts/g) beats Colts' middling defense (24 allowed).
Watch
Colts' passing attack should test Chiefs.
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
ColtsChiefs
27.4 78thPoints / game41th 21.3
24.2 38thPoints allowed / game88th 19.3
5.8 78thYards / play31th 5.1
118.1 47thRush yards / game28th 106.6
240.3 75thPass yards / game56th 232.2
43% 3rd-down % 37%
-0.1 53thTurnover margin / game59th -0.1
What it says. Colts lead on 4 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is points allowed / game, Chiefs 88th against 38th.
Each offense against the other defense
When Indianapolis has the ball
Passing
Colts offense
240.3 yds/g 75th
Chiefs defense
205.1 allowed 78th
Rushing
Colts offense
118.1 yds/g 47th
Chiefs defense
105.7 allowed 78th
When Kansas City has the ball
Passing
Chiefs offense
232.2 yds/g 56th
Colts defense
262.5 allowed 6th
Rushing
Chiefs offense
106.6 yds/g 28th
Colts defense
101.9 allowed 81th
Player spotlights
4 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
ColtsJonathan TaylorRB
60+ Rush Yards
88.8 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
ChiefsPatrick MahomesQB
250+ Pass Yards
264.8 avg · cleared 80% (8/10)
Soft on paperA soft matchup on paper, 4th-softest pass defence of 32 — but across three seasons, soft defences have not produced above-baseline games, so we make no call
Rashee RiceWR
50+ Rec Yards
71.4 avg · cleared 62% (5/8)
Matchup not a factor
Travis KelceTE
40+ Rec Yards
47.6 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
ColtsLLLLL0-5 last 5 · 21.8 for · 32.6 againstChiefsLLLLL0-5 last 5 · 11.4 for · 19.2 against