Week 2 · 2026-09-20
Washington Commanders
5-12 in 2025
at
Dallas Cowboys
7-10 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
Washington wins if
Middling offense (21 pts/g) beats Cowboys' weak defense (30 allowed).
Dallas wins if
Strong offense (28 pts/g) beats Commanders' weak defense (27 allowed).
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
CommandersCowboys
20.9 38thPoints / game84th 27.7
26.5 19thPoints allowed / game3th 30.1
5.5 66thYards / play91th 5.9
134.7 91thRush yards / game75th 125.6
195.8 25thPass yards / game100th 278.5
38% 3rd-down % 41%
-0.8 6thTurnover margin / game11th -0.5
What it says. Cowboys lead on 4 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is pass yards / game, Cowboys 100th against 25th.
Each offense against the other defense
When Washington has the ball
Passing
Commanders offense
195.8 yds/g 25th
Cowboys defense
265.9 allowed 3th
Rushing
Commanders offense
134.7 yds/g 91th
Cowboys defense
125.5 allowed 31th
When Dallas has the ball
Passing
Cowboys offense
278.5 yds/g 100th
Commanders defense
257.1 allowed 16th
Rushing
Cowboys offense
125.6 yds/g 75th
Commanders defense
141.5 allowed 9th
Player spotlights
6 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
CommandersJayden DanielsQB
200+ Pass Yards
180.3 avg · cleared 57% (4/7)
Soft on paperA soft matchup on paper, 2nd-softest pass defence of 32 — but across three seasons, soft defences have not produced above-baseline games, so we make no call
Terry McLaurinWR
50+ Rec Yards
58.2 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Matchup not a factor
CowboysDak PrescottQB
250+ Pass Yards
267.1 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Javonte WilliamsRB
60+ Rush Yards
72.5 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Soft on paperA soft matchup on paper, 2nd-softest run defence of 32 — but across three seasons, soft defences have not produced above-baseline games, so we make no call
CeeDee LambWR
60+ Rec Yards
74.5 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Matchup not a factor
George PickensWR
75+ Rec Yards
82.2 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Matchup not a factor
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
CommandersLWLLW2-3 last 5 · 18.8 for · 25.6 againstCowboysLLLWL1-4 last 5 · 24.0 for · 33.8 against