Week 2 · 2026-09-20
Miami Dolphins
7-10 in 2025
at
San Francisco 49ers
13-5 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
Miami wins if
Weak offense (20 pts/g) beats 49ers' strong defense (22 allowed).
San Francisco wins if
Strong offense (26 pts/g) beats Dolphins' weak defense (25 allowed).
Watch
Dolphins' run game should test 49ers; 49ers' passing attack should test Dolphins.
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
Dolphins49ers
20.4 25thPoints / game72th 25.6
24.9 28thPoints allowed / game66th 21.7
5.4 59thYards / play69th 5.6
120.2 66thRush yards / game25th 105.1
195.4 22thPass yards / game84th 256.1
35% 3rd-down % 50%
-0.2 30thTurnover margin / game16th -0.4
What it says. 49ers lead on 4 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is pass yards / game, 49ers 84th against 22th.
Each offense against the other defense
When Miami has the ball
Passing
Dolphins offense
195.4 yds/g 22th
49ers defense
237.7 allowed 34th
Rushing
Dolphins offense
120.2 yds/g 66th
49ers defense
109.6 allowed 66th
When San Francisco has the ball
Passing
49ers offense
256.1 yds/g 84th
Dolphins defense
230.6 allowed 47th
Rushing
49ers offense
105.1 yds/g 25th
Dolphins defense
132.4 allowed 22th
Player spotlights
7 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
DolphinsDe'Von AchaneRB
75+ Rush Yards
96.0 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Tyreek HillWR
40+ Rec Yards
66.2 avg · cleared 100% (4/4)
Matchup not a factor
Jaylen WaddleWR
50+ Rec Yards
52.0 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
49ersBrock PurdyQB
250+ Pass Yards
242.9 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Christian McCaffreyRB
60+ Rush Yards
76.0 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
George KittleTE
60+ Rec Yards
60.9 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Ricky PearsallWR
50+ Rec Yards
58.7 avg · cleared 56% (5/9)
Matchup not a factor
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
DolphinsWLLWL2-3 last 5 · 20.0 for · 27.6 against49ersWWWLW4-1 last 5 · 30.6 for · 24.2 against