Week 2 · 2026-09-20
Jacksonville Jaguars
13-5 in 2025
at
Denver Broncos
14-3 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
Jacksonville wins if
Strong offense (28 pts/g) beats Broncos' elite defense (18 allowed).
Denver wins if
Middling offense (24 pts/g) beats Jaguars' strong defense (20 allowed).
Watch
Jaguars' run game should test Broncos; Broncos' run game should test Jaguars.
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
JaguarsBroncos
27.7 81thPoints / game59th 23.6
20.2 75thPoints allowed / game91th 18.3
5.3 53thYards / play56th 5.3
117.2 44thRush yards / game56th 118.7
235.2 62thPass yards / game50th 231.2
40% 3rd-down % 41%
0.7 89thTurnover margin / game39th -0.2
What it says. The teams split the 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is turnover margin / game, Jaguars 89th against 39th.
Each offense against the other defense
When Jacksonville has the ball
Passing
Jaguars offense
235.2 yds/g 62th
Broncos defense
212.1 allowed 72th
Rushing
Jaguars offense
117.2 yds/g 44th
Broncos defense
91.1 allowed 97th
When Denver has the ball
Passing
Broncos offense
231.2 yds/g 50th
Jaguars defense
233.7 allowed 44th
Rushing
Broncos offense
118.7 yds/g 56th
Jaguars defense
85.2 allowed 100th
Player spotlights
7 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
JaguarsTrevor LawrenceQB
225+ Pass Yards
237.4 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Travis EtienneRB
50+ Rush Yards
57.6 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Parker WashingtonWR
60+ Rec Yards
74.7 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Jakobi MeyersWR
40+ Rec Yards
49.5 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Matchup not a factor
BroncosBo NixQB
200+ Pass Yards
237.5 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
J.K. DobbinsRB
75+ Rush Yards
77.2 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Tough matchup-9 ydsPlayers lose 9 yards against their own form facing this run defence, 6th-toughest run defence of 32
Courtland SuttonWR
50+ Rec Yards
54.8 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
JaguarsWWWWL4-1 last 5 · 34.0 for · 18.2 againstBroncosWWLWW4-1 last 5 · 23.4 for · 18.6 against