New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens

Week 2 · 2026-09-20

New Orleans Saints

6-11 in 2025

Baltimore Ravens

8-9 in 2025

Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.

The read

Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.

New Orleans wins if

Weak offense (18 pts/g) beats Ravens' middling defense (23 allowed).

Baltimore wins if

Strong offense (25 pts/g) beats Saints' middling defense (23 allowed).

Watch

Ravens' run game should test Saints.

Matchup at a glance

Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.

SaintsRavens

18.0 16^thPoints / game69^th 24.9

22.5 56^thPoints allowed / game47^th 23.4

5.0 19^thYards / play81^th 5.8

94.3 16^thRush yards / game100^th 156.6

236.9 69^thPass yards / game16^th 192.8

39% 3rd-down % 41%

-0.2 30^thTurnover margin / game39^th -0.2

What it says. Ravens lead on 4 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is rush yards / game, Ravens 100th against 16th.

Each offense against the other defense

When New Orleans has the ball

Passing

Saints offense

236.9 yds/g 69^th

Ravens defense

259 allowed 12^th

Even

Rushing

Saints offense

94.3 yds/g 16^th

Ravens defense

106.6 allowed 75^th

Even

When Baltimore has the ball

Passing

Ravens offense

192.8 yds/g 16^th

Saints defense

196.2 allowed 91^th

Even

Rushing

Ravens offense

156.6 yds/g 100^th

Saints defense

120.6 allowed 44^th

Edge Ravens

Player spotlights

4 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.

Saints

Tyler ShoughQB

225+ Pass Yards

238.4 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

Chris OlaveWR

60+ Rec Yards

82.1 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

Matchup not a factor

Ravens

Derrick HenryRB

100+ Rush Yards

108.5 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Zay FlowersWR

60+ Rec Yards

72.5 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

Matchup not a factor

Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.

Recent form

The last five results, oldest to newest.

SaintsWWWWL4-1 last 5 · 24.8 for · 17.6 against

RavensLWLWL2-3 last 5 · 27.0 for · 21.0 against