Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Week 2 · 2026-09-20

Minnesota Vikings

9-8 in 2025

Chicago Bears

12-6 in 2025

Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.

The read

Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.

Minnesota wins if

Weak offense (20 pts/g) beats Bears' weak defense (25 allowed).

Chicago wins if

Strong offense (26 pts/g) beats Vikings' strong defense (20 allowed).

Watch

Bears' passing attack should test Vikings; Bears own the turnover battle.

Matchup at a glance

Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.

VikingsBears

20.2 22^thPoints / game75^th 26.2

19.6 81^thPoints allowed / game31^th 24.6

4.9 16^thYards / play75^th 5.7

108.3 31^thRush yards / game94^th 141.3

188.7 9^thPass yards / game78^th 241.8

32% 3rd-down % 43%

-0.5 11^thTurnover margin / game100^th 1.1

What it says. Bears lead on 5 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is turnover margin / game, Bears 100th against 11th.

Each offense against the other defense

When Minnesota has the ball

Passing

Vikings offense

188.7 yds/g 9^th

Bears defense

243.9 allowed 28^th

Edge Bears

Rushing

Vikings offense

108.3 yds/g 31^th

Bears defense

132.6 allowed 19^th

Edge Bears

When Chicago has the ball

Passing

Bears offense

241.8 yds/g 78^th

Vikings defense

177.7 allowed 97^th

Edge Bears

Rushing

Bears offense

141.3 yds/g 94^th

Vikings defense

124.1 allowed 34^th

Edge Bears

Player spotlights

6 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.

Vikings

Carson WentzQB

225+ Pass Yards

243.2 avg · cleared 60% (3/5)

Aaron JonesRB

40+ Rush Yards

50.2 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

Bears

Caleb WilliamsQB

200+ Pass Yards

238.7 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

Tough matchup-11 ydsPlayers lose 11 yards against their own form facing this pass defence

D'Andre SwiftRB

50+ Rush Yards

67.7 avg · cleared 80% (8/10)

Rome OdunzeWR

40+ Rec Yards

47.8 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Matchup not a factor

Colston LovelandTE

40+ Rec Yards

61.6 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

Matchup not a factor

Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.

Recent form

The last five results, oldest to newest.

VikingsWWWWW5-0 last 5 · 24.0 for · 10.4 against

BearsWWLLW3-2 last 5 · 27.6 for · 21.4 against