Week 2 · 2026-09-20
Cleveland Browns
5-12 in 2025
at
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8-9 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
Cleveland wins if
Weak offense (16 pts/g) beats Buccaneers' middling defense (24 allowed).
Tampa Bay wins if
Middling offense (22 pts/g) beats Browns' middling defense (22 allowed).
Watch
Buccaneers' passing attack should test Browns; Buccaneers own the turnover battle.
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
BrownsBuccaneers
16.4 6thPoints / game47th 22.4
22.3 59thPoints allowed / game41th 24.2
4.3 3thYards / play28th 5.1
97.0 19thRush yards / game41th 114.5
185.4 6thPass yards / game44th 220.9
34% 3rd-down % 41%
-0.4 20thTurnover margin / game81th 0.4
What it says. Buccaneers lead on 5 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is turnover margin / game, Buccaneers 81th against 20th.
Each offense against the other defense
When Cleveland has the ball
Passing
Browns offense
185.4 yds/g 6th
Buccaneers defense
254.8 allowed 19th
Rushing
Browns offense
97 yds/g 19th
Buccaneers defense
99.1 allowed 88th
When Tampa Bay has the ball
Passing
Buccaneers offense
220.9 yds/g 44th
Browns defense
189.4 allowed 94th
Rushing
Buccaneers offense
114.5 yds/g 41th
Browns defense
116.4 allowed 50th
Player spotlights
2 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
BrownsHarold Fannin Jr.TE
40+ Rec Yards
47.7 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
BuccaneersBucky IrvingRB
60+ Rush Yards
58.8 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
BrownsLLLWW2-3 last 5 · 17.0 for · 21.8 againstBuccaneersLLLLW1-4 last 5 · 20.2 for · 22.0 against