Week 2 · 2026-09-18
Detroit Lions
9-8 in 2025
at
Buffalo Bills
13-5 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.
The read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
Detroit wins if
Elite offense (28 pts/g) beats Bills' strong defense (22 allowed).
Buffalo wins if
Elite offense (28 pts/g) beats Lions' weak defense (24 allowed).
Watch
Bills' run game should test Lions; Lions' passing attack should test Bills.
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
LionsBills
28.3 94thPoints / game91th 28.2
24.3 34thPoints allowed / game69th 21.6
6.0 94thYards / play88th 5.9
120.1 62thRush yards / game97th 155.2
268.6 94thPass yards / game66th 236.3
39% 3rd-down % 45%
0.2 75thTurnover margin / game64th 0.1
What it says. Lions lead on 4 of 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is points allowed / game, Bills 69th against 34th.
Each offense against the other defense
When Detroit has the ball
Passing
Lions offense
268.6 yds/g 94th
Bills defense
172.3 allowed 100th
Rushing
Lions offense
120.1 yds/g 62th
Bills defense
137.2 allowed 16th
When Buffalo has the ball
Passing
Bills offense
236.3 yds/g 66th
Lions defense
236.9 allowed 38th
Rushing
Bills offense
155.2 yds/g 97th
Lions defense
114.5 allowed 62th
Player spotlights
6 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
LionsJared GoffQB
275+ Pass Yards
293.3 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)
Tough matchup-33 ydsPlayers lose 33 yards against their own form facing this pass defence, 5th-toughest pass defence of 32
Jahmyr GibbsRB
40+ Rush Yards
69.7 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Soft on paperA soft matchup on paper, softest run defence of 32 — but across three seasons, soft defences have not produced above-baseline games, so we make no call
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR
60+ Rec Yards
86.3 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Jameson WilliamsWR
60+ Rec Yards
82.8 avg · cleared 80% (8/10)
Matchup not a factor
BillsJosh AllenQB
250+ Pass Yards
234.2 avg · cleared 67% (6/9)
Soft on paperA soft matchup on paper, 3rd-softest pass defence of 32 — but across three seasons, soft defences have not produced above-baseline games, so we make no call
James CookRB
60+ Rush Yards
80.0 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.
Recent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
LionsWLLLW2-3 last 5 · 26.2 for · 27.8 againstBillsWWLWW4-1 last 5 · 26.4 for · 19.2 against