Tonight's matchup
The story of the game, written 2026-09-11 before any line was posted. A read, not a forecast.
Two rebuilt offences: Miami with three new quarterbacks and none of last season's receivers, Las Vegas with Kirk Cousins and without Brock Bowers.
- Miami's passing game is new from the quarterback out.
Tua Tagovailoa (Atlanta), Quinn Ewers (Jacksonville), Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle (Denver) and Darren Waller (Carolina) are all gone. Brady Cook (33 attempts a game with the Jets), Kyle McCord and Malik Willis are the quarterbacks on the roster; the feed cannot say who starts. Jeff Hafley coaches the Dolphins.
- De'Von Achane is the one constant.
20.2 touches a game and 96 rushing yards over his last ten, in a run game at the 66th percentile, against a Raiders run defence rated average by own-baseline (23rd).
- The Raiders' offence was the worst in the league and is now Cousins'.
14.2 points a game (3rd percentile), 77.5 rushing yards (3rd). Kirk Cousins arrived from Atlanta with 28 attempts a game; Geno Smith went to the Jets, Jakobi Meyers to Jacksonville. Ashton Jeanty carried 19.9 times a game. Klint Kubiak calls the offence as head coach.
- Brock Bowers is out.
Meniscus surgery removes the Raiders' most-targeted player (7.3 a game). Tre Tucker (6.1) and Michael Mayer are what remains; the Raiders' pass defence rates 11th by own-baseline (−15), the better half of their defence.
The other way. The other shape: Cousins and Jeanty are enough against a Miami defence that allowed 25 a game and rated soft against the pass, and the Raiders' home opener is the higher-scoring, more competent side of an ugly game.
Availability
Which absences change tonight's game, from the official report of 2026-09-11. Hand-entered; not in any number on this page.
DolphinsRaidersThe read
Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.
Weak offense (20 pts/g) beats Raiders' weak defense (25 allowed).
Weak offense (14 pts/g) beats Dolphins' weak defense (25 allowed).
Ugly and low. Two offences that scored 20 and 14 a game, both rebuilt, neither with a settled passing game; the running backs, Achane and Jeanty, are the only players whose roles are certain. Expect the total to sit low and the first team to string two scoring drives together to win.
Matchup at a glance
Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.
Player spotlights
3 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.
DolphinsRaidersRecent form
The last five results, oldest to newest.
DolphinsWLLWL2-3 last 5 · 20.0 for · 27.6 againstRaidersLLLLW1-4 last 5 · 12.4 for · 24.8 againstSince last season
Who moved. The numbers on this page are last season's; these are the players they still count, and the ones they cannot see.
DolphinsRaidersWhat would change the read
The page above is a set of claims. These are the things that would falsify them, written before kickoff so the game can be watched against them.
- If Miami's starting quarterback throws 20 times in the first half
The Dolphins are throwing with a new passer rather than running Achane; the volume read on Achane weakens.
- If Jeanty has fewer than 8 carries by halftime
Kubiak's offence is Cousins-first; drop the Jeanty volume read.
Before seeing the lines
What the matchup read suggested before anyone knew what the book thought, written 2026-09-11. An anti-bias record: no number, so not graded. Open to read.
DolphinsRaiders