Sports Today Sunday, September 13
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Week 1 · 2026-09-13
Arizona Cardinals
3-14 in 2025
at
Los Angeles Chargers
11-7 in 2025
Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.

Tonight's matchup

The story of the game, written 2026-09-11 before any line was posted. A read, not a forecast.

Jacoby Brissett's 37 attempts a game into the fourth-toughest pass defence by own-baseline, with both of Arizona's top backs on injured reserve and Kyler Murray in Minnesota.

  • Arizona's offence is Brissett throwing to McBride, Wilson and Harrison.

    Brissett threw 37.4 times a game for 277 in his starts; Trey McBride drew 9.9 targets, Michael Wilson 7.4, Marvin Harrison Jr. 6.1. Kyler Murray is in Minnesota. Mike LaFleur coaches the Cardinals.

  • The Chargers' defence is the fourth-toughest against the pass and fifth against the run.

    Passers lost about 34 yards against form facing Los Angeles; backs lost 9. The Chargers allowed 19.8 points a game (78th percentile). Jim Harbaugh coaches the Chargers.

  • Arizona has no run game and no healthy lead back.

    93 rushing yards a game (6th percentile); James Conner and Trey Benson are on injured reserve, Jeremiyah Love is questionable, Tyler Allgeier arrived from Atlanta with 9.4 carries a game and Bam Knight had 11.3.

  • Herbert's yards fell to 197 a game over his last ten.

    37 attempts a game, so the volume held; Keenan Allen (7.2 targets) has gone to Indianapolis and David Njoku arrived. Omarion Hampton (16.0) and Kimani Vidal (14.7) share the carries.

The other way. The other shape: Brissett's volume beats the measurement the way it beat an average defence all last season, McBride has a 10-target day, and the Cardinals' 88th-percentile passing game keeps a 3-14 team in a game the Chargers' offence (21 a game) cannot run away from.

Availability

Which absences change tonight's game, from the official report of 2026-09-11. Hand-entered; not in any number on this page.

Cardinals
Isaiah AdamsGOutStarting guard; out.
Garrett WilliamsCBOutStarting corner; out after Achilles surgery.
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonSOutStarting safety; out.
Jeremiyah LoveRBQuestionableRookie back in a room without Conner and Benson; questionable.
Also on the report
Kaleb ProctorDTIR
No longer on the roster still in last season's numbers
Kyler MurrayQBDeparted
Michael CarterRBDeparted
Emari DemercadoRBDeparted
Chargers
Isaiah WorldOTOutRookie tackle; out.
Tuli TuipulotuLBQuestionableEdge rusher; questionable.
Also on the report
Deane LeonardCBOut
Denzel PerrymanLBIR
Scott MatlockFBIR
No longer on the roster still in last season's numbers
Jaret PattersonRBDeparted
Keenan AllenWRDeparted
Najee HarrisRBDeparted
Hassan HaskinsRBDeparted

The read

Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.

Arizona wins if

Weak offense (21 pts/g) beats Chargers' strong defense (20 allowed).

Los Angeles wins if

Weak offense (21 pts/g) beats Cardinals' weak defense (29 allowed).

Watch

Cardinals' passing attack should test Chargers.

Expected game script hand-written, a read

Chargers control. A defence measured in the top five both ways against an offence with one healthy dimension is a field-position game the home side wins on possessions. Expect Brissett to throw 40 times for fewer yards than that implies, and Hampton and Vidal to close it out.

Matchup at a glance

Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.

CardinalsChargers
20.9 34thPoints / game28th 20.6
28.7 12thPoints allowed / game78th 19.8
5.2 38thYards / play25th 5.1
93.1 6thRush yards / game59th 119.7
256.1 88thPass yards / game47th 228.4
42% 3rd-down % 44%
-0.1 53thTurnover margin / game70th 0.2
What it says. The teams split the 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is points allowed / game, Chargers 78th against 12th.
Each offense against the other defense
When Arizona has the ball
Passing
Cardinals offense
256.1 yds/g 88th
Chargers defense
199 allowed 88th
Edge Cardinals
Rushing
Cardinals offense
93.1 yds/g 6th
Chargers defense
107.6 allowed 72th
Edge Chargers
When Los Angeles has the ball
Passing
Chargers offense
228.4 yds/g 47th
Cardinals defense
242.8 allowed 31th
Edge Cardinals
Rushing
Chargers offense
119.7 yds/g 59th
Cardinals defense
126.9 allowed 25th
Even

Player spotlights

4 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.

Cardinals
Jacoby BrissettQB
250+ Pass Yards
276.7 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Tough matchup-34 ydsPlayers lose 34 yards against their own form facing this pass defence, 4th-toughest pass defence of 32
Trey McBrideTE
75+ Rec Yards
81.8 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Michael WilsonWR
60+ Rec Yards
87.0 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Matchup not a factor
Chargers
Justin HerbertQB
200+ Pass Yards
197.3 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)
Tough matchup-15 ydsPlayers lose 15 yards against their own form facing this pass defence
Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.

Prop board

13 calls out of 24 lines evaluated, ranked most to least confident across both teams; a pass is a line with no edge. A person's calls against the posted lines, not engine output; every call is graded in the ledger.

Cardinals
#5Trey McBridemoderateover
Over 6.5 receptions
7+ in 10 of 17, 7.4 a game, median 7, 67% over his last six, at +115. Arizona has no run game to lean on and the matchup does not move receivers.
#7Jacoby Brissettmoderateover
Over 34.5 pass attempts
35+ in 9 of 14, median 38, 37.2 over his last six, with Conner and Benson on injured reserve and Love questionable. Arizona has to throw.
#8Marvin Harrison Jr.moderateunder
Under 3.5 receptions
4+ in 5 of 12, 3.4 a game, median 3, and 33% over his last six, with the under at +115.
#10Jacoby Brissettmoderateunder
Under 220.5 passing yards
240 a game and the market has already set the line 20 below that, but the Chargers are measured to cost a passer 34 yards against his own form, which puts him near 206.
#11Jacoby Brissettlowover
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
2+ in 10 of 14, 1.6 a game, 83% over his last six, at +150 implying 40%. Low only because the Chargers allowed 19.8 points a game.
Michael Wilsonpass
3.5 receptions
4+ in 8 of 17 but 67% over his last six; the season and the trend disagree at a flat price.
Kendrick Bournepass
2.5 receptions
3+ in 6 of 14 in San Francisco, 1 of his last 6; he is a Cardinal now and the target share is unknown.
Jeremiyah Lovepass
2.5 receptions
A rookie with no NFL games, and questionable with an ankle.
Jeremiyah Lovepass
38.5 rushing yards
Same rookie, same ankle; the line assumes a workload nobody has seen.
Tyler Allgeierpass
30.5 rushing yards
30.2 a game on 8.4 carries in Atlanta, but Conner and Benson are on injured reserve and his Arizona workload could be anything.
Jacoby Brissettpass
10.5 rushing yards
11+ in 7 of 14, 12.0 a game, median 11. The line is his median.
Jacoby Brissettpass
22.5 completions
23+ in 7 of 14, 22.5 a game, median 24. A coin flip.
Chargers
#1Omarion Hamptonhighunder
Under 70.5 rushing yards
71+ rushing yards in 2 of his 10 games, 54.4 a game, median 52, and 45.7 over his last six. The line sits 16 above his average.
#2Justin Herberthighover
Over 21.5 rushing yards
22+ in 11 of 17, 32.6 a game, median 31, and 35.0 over his last six.
#3Ladd McConkeyhighunder
Under 4.5 receptions
5+ in 6 of 17, 4.1 a game, and 0 of his last 6 at 2.5. The over is priced at -150 against an observed 35%.
#4Tre Harrismoderateunder
Under 2.5 receptions
3+ in 4 of 17, 1.9 a game. Johnston and McConkey are ahead of him and Njoku arrived at tight end.
#6Justin Herbertmoderateunder
Under 238.5 passing yards
239+ in 7 of 17, 228.6 a game and 199 over his last six, against an Arizona pass defence measured to cost a passer about 15 yards.
#9Justin Herbertmoderateunder
Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
2+ in 8 of 17 at 1.5 a game; the over is priced at -220, implying 69% against an observed 47%.
#12Charlie Kolarlowunder
Under 1.5 receptions
2+ in 2 of 11 in Baltimore at 0.9 a game; he is a Charger now behind Njoku and Gadsden, so the role changed but not in his favour.
#13Justin Herbertlowunder
Under 20.5 completions
21+ in 8 of 17, 21.1 a game, median 20, 18.2 over his last six, at even money.
Quentin Johnstonpass
3.5 receptions
4+ in 8 of 14 across the season but 2 of his last 6, at a flat price between the two.
Omarion Hamptonpass
2.5 receptions
3+ in 4 of 10, 3.2 a game, median 2; observed 40% against 40% implied.
Keaton Mitchellpass
25.5 rushing yards
28.4 a game in Baltimore, median 25; he is a Charger now behind Hampton and Vidal.
Justin Herbertpass
29.5 pass attempts
30+ in 8 of 17, median 29, 27.8 over his last six. Thin either way.
Why the unders lead: the one matchup effect this project has measured is that a tough defence suppresses a player and a soft one does nothing, so a matchup can argue for an under and never for an over. An over rests on usage alone.

Recent form

The last five results, oldest to newest.

CardinalsLLLLL0-5 last 5 · 18.0 for · 37.0 against
ChargersWWLLL2-3 last 5 · 14.4 for · 17.0 against

Since last season

Who moved. The numbers on this page are last season's; these are the players they still count, and the ones they cannot see.

Cardinals
inRB Tyler Allgeier from Falcons
outQB Kyler MurrayRB Michael Carter; RB Emari Demercado
Chargers
inRB Keaton Mitchell from RavensTE David Njoku from Browns
outRB Jaret PattersonWR Keenan Allen; RB Najee Harris; RB Hassan Haskins

What would change the read

The page above is a set of claims. These are the things that would falsify them, written before kickoff so the game can be watched against them.

  • If Brissett has 170 passing yards by halftime

    The Chargers' pass defence is not what it measured; drop the under and the field-position script.

  • If Herbert throws 25 times in the first half

    Los Angeles is chasing, not controlling; the Hampton read weakens.

Before seeing the lines

What the matchup read suggested before anyone knew what the book thought, written 2026-09-11. An anti-bias record: no number, so not graded. Open to read.

Cardinals
Jacoby Brissettunder
Passing yards
277 a game against a pass defence costing passers 34 yards against form, fourth-toughest, and the only measured struggle call on his page.
Trey McBrideover
Receptions
9.9 targets a game; the matchup does not move receivers and Arizona has nothing else to do but throw.
Tyler Allgeieravoid
Rush attempts
Conner and Benson on IR, Love questionable, Allgeier and Knight unranked; the share is unknown.
Chargers
Omarion Hamptonover
Rush attempts
16.0 a game with Vidal at 14.7, against a Cardinals run defence rated 26th; a lead means more.