Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

Week 1 · 2026-09-13

Baltimore Ravens

8-9 in 2025

Indianapolis Colts

8-9 in 2025

Built from the full 2025 season — the 2026 feed has no played games yet.

Tonight's matchup

The story of the game, written 2026-09-11 before any line was posted. A read, not a forecast.

The best rushing offence in the league against a Colts run defence in the top fifth, while Jonathan Taylor runs into the third-toughest run defence by own-baseline.

Baltimore ran for 157 yards a game, 100th percentile.
Derrick Henry carried 19.4 times a game and averaged 108 yards over his last ten. Lamar Jackson's passing volume was low, 28 attempts a game with Tyler Huntley starting five games, and the pass offence rated 16th percentile.
Jonathan Taylor faces the wrong defence for a 22-carry back.
The Ravens' run defence cost backs about 11 yards against their form by own-baseline, third-toughest of 32. Taylor's 88.8 yards a game over his last ten was built against softer fronts.
Both teams changed at quarterback in different ways.
Daniel Jones is the Colts' starter (33 attempts a game) after Philip Rivers' 2025 stint; Keenan Allen arrived with 7.2 targets a game to replace Michael Pittman. Baltimore is coached by Jesse Minter.
Madubuike is out, and the Colts' pass defence rates 29th.
Nnamdi Madubuike (neck) leaves the Ravens' interior; the Colts gave up about 18 yards against form to passers, 29th by own-baseline, though Baltimore's pass offence was 16th percentile and may not exploit it.

The other way. The other shape: Lamar Jackson's 2025 volume was a Huntley artefact, the Colts' pass defence is as soft as it rates, and Zay Flowers (72.5 yards a game) has the day while Henry is held to the low 80s.

Availability

Which absences change tonight's game, from the official report of 2026-09-11. Hand-entered; not in any number on this page.

Ravens

Teddye BuchananLBOutStarting inside linebacker; out for the season.

Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOutThe Ravens' interior pass rusher; out after neck surgery.

Devontez WalkerWRQuestionableDepth receiver; questionable.

Also on the report

Bilhal KoneCBIR

Adam RandallRBIR

No longer on the roster still in last season's numbers

Cooper RushQBDeparted

Keaton MitchellRBDeparted

Colts

Austin AjiakeLBQuestionableHamstring

Sean McKeonTEQuestionableUndisclosed

Carson TowtTEIRUndisclosed

D.J. MontgomeryWRIRAbdomen

Will MalloryTEIRThumb

No longer on the roster still in last season's numbers

Philip RiversQBDeparted

Michael PittmanWRDeparted

The read

Each side's case and the swing factor, from last season's profiles. Records, not forecasts.

Baltimore wins if

Strong offense (25 pts/g) beats Colts' middling defense (24 allowed).

Indianapolis wins if

Strong offense (27 pts/g) beats Ravens' middling defense (23 allowed).

Watch

Ravens' run game should test Colts.

Expected game script hand-written, a read

A Ravens run game against a Colts defence that can hold it (81st percentile against the run) is the whole game. Expect Baltimore to carry 30 times, Indianapolis to throw more than it wants to against a pass defence that measures average, and Taylor's yards to lag his carries.

Matchup at a glance

Last season's profiles side by side, then each offense against the other defense. Percentiles are league rank, higher is better for that side.

RavensColts

24.9 69^thPoints / game78^th 27.4

23.4 47^thPoints allowed / game38^th 24.2

5.8 81^thYards / play78^th 5.8

156.6 100^thRush yards / game47^th 118.1

192.8 16^thPass yards / game75^th 240.3

41% 3rd-down % 43%

-0.2 39^thTurnover margin / game53^th -0.1

What it says. The teams split the 6 ranked rows; the widest gap is pass yards / game, Colts 75th against 16th.

Each offense against the other defense

When Baltimore has the ball

Passing

Ravens offense

192.8 yds/g 16^th

Colts defense

262.5 allowed 6^th

Edge Colts

Rushing

Ravens offense

156.6 yds/g 100^th

Colts defense

101.9 allowed 81^th

Edge Ravens

When Indianapolis has the ball

Passing

Colts offense

240.3 yds/g 75^th

Ravens defense

259 allowed 12^th

Even

Rushing

Colts offense

118.1 yds/g 47^th

Ravens defense

106.6 allowed 75^th

Edge Colts

Player spotlights

5 players whose usage sets a bar they usually clear. The bar is picked from prior games; the matchup effect is measured and flagged only where it is real.

Ravens

Derrick HenryRB

100+ Rush Yards

108.5 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Zay FlowersWR

60+ Rec Yards

72.5 avg · cleared 70% (7/10)

Matchup not a factor

Colts

Daniel JonesQB

200+ Pass Yards

228.5 avg · cleared 80% (8/10)

Jonathan TaylorRB

60+ Rush Yards

88.8 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Tough matchup-11 ydsPlayers lose 11 yards against their own form facing this run defence, 3rd-toughest run defence of 32

Alec PierceWR

75+ Rec Yards

68.6 avg · cleared 60% (6/10)

Matchup not a factor

Receivers carry no matchup call: across three ingested seasons the gap between the softest and toughest defences is about 2 receiving yards, against a 35-yard game-to-game swing. We measured it rather than assuming it.

Prop board

12 calls out of 24 lines evaluated, ranked most to least confident across both teams; a pass is a line with no edge. A person's calls against the posted lines, not engine output; every call is graded in the ledger.

Ravens

#1Lamar Jacksonhighunder

Under 18.5 completions

19+ completions in 3 of 13 starts, 14.8 a game, median 14, and 12.5 over his last six.

#2Lamar Jacksonhighunder

Under 27.5 pass attempts

28+ attempts in 4 of 13, 23.2 a game, median 23. Baltimore ran for 157 yards a game, the most in the league.

#3Lamar Jacksonhighunder

Under 39.5 rushing yards

40+ in 3 of 13, 26.8 a game, median 26, and 20.5 over his last six. Correlated with the two above; all three assume the same offence.

#4Mark Andrewshighunder

Under 3.5 receptions

4+ in 5 of 17, 2.8 a game, median 2, on an offence that throws 23 times. The over is priced at -150 against an observed 29%.

#6Lamar Jacksonmoderateunder

Under 219.5 passing yards

220+ in 4 of 13, 196 a game, 184.5 over his last six. Indianapolis rates 29th against the pass, which is measured to do nothing for him.

#9Derrick Henrymoderateover

Over 78.5 rushing yards

79+ in 9 of 17, 93.8 a game, median 94, and 120.7 over his last six, on 18 carries a game in the league's best rushing offence.

#11Rashod Batemanmoderateunder

Under 1.5 receptions

2+ in 6 of 13, 1.5 a game, median 1, and 1.0 over his last six; the over is priced at -190 against an observed 46%.

Zay Flowerspass

4.5 receptions

5+ in 10 of 17, 5.1 a game, median 5, but 2 of his last 6. The line is his median.

Derrick Henrypass

0.5 receptions

A catch in 10 of 17 but 2 of his last 6; the season and the recent role point opposite ways.

Justice Hillpass

1.5 receptions

2+ in 5 of 9, 2.3 a game, against an over at -180. Observed 56% against 64% implied, which is thin the other way.

Justice Hillpass

8.5 rushing yards

10.3 a game but a median of 2 carries; Keaton Mitchell leaving may grow the role, and nine games cannot say by how much.

Ja'Kobi Lanepass

1.5 receptions

No 2025 games in the feed.

Lamar Jacksonpass

1.5 passing touchdowns

2+ in 6 of 13 at 1.6 a game, priced at +110 implying 48% against an observed 46%.

Colts

#5Josh Downsmoderateunder

Under 4.5 receptions

5+ in 5 of 16, 3.6 a game, and 1 of his last 6, with Keenan Allen arriving to take targets.

#7Daniel Jonesmoderateunder

Under 32.5 pass attempts

33+ in 4 of 13, 29.5 a game, median 29, 28.3 over his last six.

#8Daniel Jonesmoderateunder

Under 22.5 completions

23+ in 4 of 13, 20.1 a game, 18.2 over his last six.

#10Alec Piercemoderateover

Over 2.5 receptions

3+ in 9 of 15, 3.1 a game, median 4, 67% over his last six, at +125 implying 44%.

#12Keenan Allenlowover

Over 3.5 receptions

4+ in 13 of 18 with the Chargers at 4.7 a game, at +105. Low because he is a Colt now, behind Warren and alongside Downs and Pierce.

Jonathan Taylorpass

77.5 rushing yards

93.2 a game but a median of 76 and 64.7 over his last six, into the third-toughest run defence. The average and the median disagree across the line.

Tyler Warrenpass

4.5 receptions

5+ in 8 of 17, 4.5 a game, median 4; observed 53% under against 47% implied is inside the noise.

Jonathan Taylorpass

2.5 receptions

3+ in 11 of 17, 2.7 a game, median 3, at -120. Observed 65% against 55% implied, but the line is his median.

Daniel Jonespass

11.5 rushing yards

12.6 a game but a median of 4; a handful of scrambling games carries the average.

Daniel Jonespass

231.5 passing yards

232+ in 7 of 13, 238.5 a game, median 255, 218.5 over his last six. Genuinely split.

Daniel Jonespass

1.5 passing touchdowns

2+ in 6 of 13 at 1.5 a game; priced at +115, close to fair.

Why the unders lead: the one matchup effect this project has measured is that a tough defence suppresses a player and a soft one does nothing, so a matchup can argue for an under and never for an over. An over rests on usage alone.

Recent form

The last five results, oldest to newest.

RavensLWLWL2-3 last 5 · 27.0 for · 21.0 against

ColtsLLLLL0-5 last 5 · 21.8 for · 32.6 against

Since last season

Who moved. The numbers on this page are last season's; these are the players they still count, and the ones they cannot see.

Ravens

outQB Cooper RushRB Keaton Mitchell

Colts

inWR Keenan Allen from Chargers

outQB Philip RiversWR Michael Pittman

What would change the read

The page above is a set of claims. These are the things that would falsify them, written before kickoff so the game can be watched against them.

If Henry has fewer than 8 carries by halftime
Baltimore is behind or passing on purpose; the run-game script is wrong.
If Taylor clears 50 yards in the first half
The Ravens' run defence is not what it measured, likely the Madubuike absence; drop the Taylor under.

Before seeing the lines

What the matchup read suggested before anyone knew what the book thought, written 2026-09-11. An anti-bias record: no number, so not graded. Open to read.

Ravens

Derrick Henryover

Rush attempts

19.4 a game in the league's best rushing offence; a Ravens lead means more of them.

Zay Flowersover

Receptions

7.5 targets a game, the only Ravens target above 5; Isaiah Likely has gone to the Giants.

Colts

Jonathan Taylorunder

Rushing yards

Baltimore's run defence is the third-toughest by own-baseline (−11 against form); his carries are safe and his yardage is the risk.

Daniel Jonesover

Pass attempts

33 a game already; the Ravens' pass defence rates soft (26th) which we measure to do nothing, but a Colts team chasing the Ravens' run game throws.