Red Sox at Yankees · Sports Today

AL Wild Card Series · Game 2 of 3Yankees lead 1-0 · Elimination game

Boston Red Sox

No. 5 seed · 87-75 in the regular season

Regular-season form: offense cooling lately

RHP Sonny Gray · Command specialist

New York Yankees

No. 4 seed · 93-68 in the regular season

Regular-season form: offense cooling lately

LHP Max Fried · High-strikeout arm

MLB · Yankee Stadium · 5:00 PM PT

Playoff Prop Desk

Evidence for player and pitcher decisions

Data through Sep 29 · regular season ended Sep 27

Lineup spot leads because it sets plate appearances, which predict a hit more than twice as well as recent hitting does.

Total bases rides on the same chances as a hit, plus extra-base power. We do not model it; these are records.

The opposing starter carries batter strikeouts more than the batter's own form, so his strikeout rate sits beside every row.

Workload leads: a postseason hook can cut a starter's batters faced, and strikeouts need batters.

Records only. When this market was measured, recent hits allowed carried no information beyond its base rate.

Records only — the site has no walks model.

Sonny GrayRHP · Red Sox vs Yankees

5.1 K / start5.1 K / start5.1 H allowed / start5.1 H allowed / start5.1 H allowed / start1.6 BB / start

~85 pitches · 23.5 BF · ~5.2 IP per start · 29 regular-season starts

Recent K657563

Recent H773634

Recent BB213231

Pitches ~9793929010277

BF272325252522

Last 6 recorded starts · no postseason appearance yet

Yankees confirmed lineup vs RHP: K 23% 683/2932hits 21% 626/2932BB 11% 309/2932 per PA

Start by start

	Avg	Aug 21	Aug 26	Sep 5	Sep 11	Sep 17	Sep 23
Pitches ~	~85.3	97	93	92	90	102	77
Batters faced	23.5	27	23	25	25	25	22
Innings ~	~5.2	6.0	5.0	7.0	6.0	6.1	6.0
Strikeouts	5.1	6	5	7	5	6	3
Hits allowed	5.1	7	7	3	6	3	4
Walks	1.6	2	1	3	2	3	1

vs New York Yankees this season: Jun 5: 6.1 IP, 3 K, 8 H, 2 BB; Jun 28: 7.1 IP, 9 K, 1 H, 1 BB

Max FriedLHP · Yankees vs Red Sox

5.2 K / start5.2 K / start4 H allowed / start4 H allowed / start4 H allowed / start1.6 BB / start

~85 pitches · 21.7 BF · ~5.2 IP per start · 20 regular-season starts

Recent K444764

Recent H534166

Recent BB211202

Pitches ~886372808897

BF201521142527

Last 6 recorded starts · no postseason appearance yet

Red Sox confirmed lineup vs LHP: K 21% 243/1164hits 23% 264/1164BB 10% 111/1164 per PA

Start by start

	Avg	Aug 13	Aug 29	Sep 4	Sep 10	Sep 15	Sep 22
Pitches ~	~84.8	88	63	72	80	88	97
Batters faced	21.7	20	15	21	14	25	27
Innings ~	~5.2	5.0	3.2	5.2	3.1	7.0	6.2
Strikeouts	5.2	4	4	4	7	6	4
Hits allowed	4	5	3	4	1	6	6
Walks	1.6	2	1	1	2	0	2

vs Boston Red Sox this season: Apr 22: 8.0 IP, 9 K, 3 H, 2 BB; Aug 29: 3.2 IP, 4 K, 3 H, 1 BB

Red Sox✓ Confirmed lineupvs LHP Max FriedGames with 1+ hitGames with 2+ total basesGames with 1+ strikeoutStrikeouts per PAWalks per PA

1Jahmai JonesRHB vs LHPSeason29/92L143/9Season13/92L142/9Season47/92L146/9Season32% 58/181vs LHP31% 48/156Season9% 17/181K% vs LHP31% 48/1560100100200010040020031001112200001000010

Bats 1st · 2.73 PA per start this season · league average from the 1st spot: 4.49

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	92	34-for-160	29/92 · 32%	4/92 · 4%	60	13/92 · 14%	9/92 · 10%	8/92 · 9%	13	58	32% 58/181	47/92 · 51%	10/92 · 11%	17	9% 17/181
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	15	6-for-33	5/15 · 33%	1/15 · 7%	12	3/15 · 20%	2/15 · 13%	2/15 · 13%	2	14	39% 14/36	9/15 · 60%	4/15 · 27%	2	6% 2/36
L14Sep 14–27	9	4-for-22	3/9	1/9	7	2/9	1/9	1/9	1	8	33% 8/24	6/9	2/9	2	8% 2/24
Postseasonthis October	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
This seriesvs New York Yankees	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
vs New York Yankeesregular season	5	1-for-9	1/5	0/5	1	0/5	0/5	0/5	0	4	33% 4/12	3/5	1/5	2	17% 2/12

vs Max Fried: 1-for-2, 0 K in 2 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

2Adley RutschmanSwitch vs LHPSeason57/99L147/10Post1/1Season37/99L145/10Post0/1Season50/99L145/10Post1/1Season17% 68/410vs LHP13% 19/143Season10% 39/410K% vs LHP13% 19/1430111310211022151024101110130020000000010

Bats 2nd · 4.27 PA per start this season · league average from the 2nd spot: 4.4

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	99	88-for-364	57/99 · 58%	24/99 · 24%	155	37/99 · 37%	22/99 · 22%	17/99 · 17%	40	68	17% 68/410	50/99 · 51%	14/99 · 14%	39	10% 39/410
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	17	17-for-64	12/17 · 71%	4/17 · 24%	35	10/17 · 59%	4/17 · 24%	4/17 · 24%	10	13	19% 13/67	10/17 · 59%	2/17 · 12%	3	4% 3/67
L14Sep 14–27	10	10-for-38	7/10 · 70%	2/10 · 20%	17	5/10 · 50%	2/10 · 20%	2/10 · 20%	5	7	18% 7/39	5/10 · 50%	1/10 · 10%	1	3% 1/39
Postseasonthis October	1	1-for-4	1/1	0/1	1	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	2	50% 2/4	1/1	1/1	0	0% 0/4
This seriesvs New York Yankees	1	1-for-4	1/1	0/1	1	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	2	50% 2/4	1/1	1/1	0	0% 0/4
vs New York Yankeesregular season	10	6-for-40	4/10 · 40%	1/10 · 10%	9	2/10 · 20%	2/10 · 20%	1/10 · 10%	1	7	17% 7/41	6/10 · 60%	1/10 · 10%	0	0% 0/41

vs Max Fried: 0-for-4, 0 K in 5 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

3Willson ContrerasRHB vs LHPSeason83/129L142/4Post0/1Season56/129L141/4Post0/1Season93/129L143/4Post1/1Season25% 135/535vs LHP19% 28/146Season11% 59/535K% vs LHP19% 28/1460010201100003020410023110201130020110000

Bats 3rd · 4.15 PA per start this season · league average from the 3rd spot: 4.3

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	129	124-for-448	83/129 · 64%	32/129 · 25%	232	56/129 · 43%	37/129 · 29%	30/129 · 23%	51	135	25% 135/535	93/129 · 72%	32/129 · 25%	59	11% 59/535
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	5	4-for-14	3/5	1/5	7	2/5	1/5	1/5	1	4	22% 4/18	3/5	1/5	2	11% 2/18
L14Sep 14–27	4	2-for-11	2/4	0/4	5	1/4	1/4	1/4	1	4	29% 4/14	3/4	1/4	1	7% 1/14
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-4	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	3	75% 3/4	1/1	1/1	0	0% 0/4
This seriesvs New York Yankees	1	0-for-4	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	3	75% 3/4	1/1	1/1	0	0% 0/4
vs New York Yankeesregular season	13	9-for-47	7/13 · 54%	2/13 · 15%	19	5/13 · 38%	3/13 · 23%	2/13 · 15%	5	16	31% 16/52	11/13 · 85%	4/13 · 31%	5	10% 5/52

vs Max Fried: 0-for-4, 2 K, 2 BB in 6 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

4Wilyer AbreuLHB vs LHPSeason98/157L144/11Post1/1Season63/157L143/11Post0/1Season89/157L148/11Post1/1Season21% 141/681vs LHP17% 36/217Season10% 71/681K% vs LHP17% 36/2171001200101100220020103211102111020000010

Bats 4th · 4.34 PA per start this season · league average from the 4th spot: 4.18

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	157	149-for-597	98/157 · 62%	42/157 · 27%	267	63/157 · 40%	37/157 · 24%	26/157 · 17%	66	141	21% 141/681	89/157 · 57%	40/157 · 25%	71	10% 71/681
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	23	17-for-87	12/23 · 52%	4/23 · 17%	27	8/23 · 35%	4/23 · 17%	2/23 · 9%	8	23	24% 23/96	15/23 · 65%	6/23 · 26%	9	9% 9/96
L14Sep 14–27	11	5-for-41	4/11 · 36%	1/11 · 9%	7	3/11 · 27%	0/11 · 0%	0/11 · 0%	2	14	31% 14/45	8/11 · 73%	4/11 · 36%	4	9% 4/45
Postseasonthis October	1	1-for-3	1/1	0/1	1	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	33% 1/3	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/3
This seriesvs New York Yankees	1	1-for-3	1/1	0/1	1	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	33% 1/3	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/3
vs New York Yankeesregular season	13	10-for-45	8/13 · 62%	2/13 · 15%	18	5/13 · 38%	3/13 · 23%	2/13 · 15%	5	8	15% 8/53	6/13 · 46%	2/13 · 15%	5	9% 5/53

vs Max Fried: 1-for-5, 1 K in 5 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

5Ceddanne RafaelaRHB vs LHPSeason102/136L142/3Post0/1Season64/136L140/3Post0/1Season81/136L142/3Post0/1Season20% 117/576vs LHP24% 37/154Season4% 22/576K% vs LHP24% 37/1541002011010100201101000112001100000000100

Bats 5th · 4.3 PA per start this season · league average from the 5th spot: 4.04

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	136	152-for-542	102/136 · 75%	41/136 · 30%	238	64/136 · 47%	29/136 · 21%	20/136 · 15%	51	117	20% 117/576	81/136 · 60%	31/136 · 23%	22	4% 22/576
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	6	5-for-16	4/6	1/6	5	1/6	0/6	0/6	0	5	28% 5/18	4/6	1/6	1	6% 1/18
L14Sep 14–27	3	2-for-6	2/3	0/3	2	0/3	0/3	0/3	0	2	29% 2/7	2/3	0/3	1	14% 1/7
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/3	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/3
This seriesvs New York Yankees	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/3	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/3
vs New York Yankeesregular season	13	9-for-51	6/13 · 46%	3/13 · 23%	9	3/13 · 23%	0/13 · 0%	0/13 · 0%	0	8	15% 8/54	5/13 · 38%	2/13 · 15%	3	6% 3/54

vs Max Fried: 0-for-6, 3 K in 6 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

6Caleb DurbinRHB vs LHPSeason85/151L145/11Post0/1Season49/151L143/11Post0/1Season64/151L144/11Post0/1Season13% 79/586vs LHP12% 20/164Season9% 51/586K% vs LHP12% 20/1640222000010024200001000011010001000101000

Bats 6th · 3.96 PA per start this season · league average from the 6th spot: 3.88

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	151	126-for-507	85/151 · 56%	34/151 · 23%	192	49/151 · 32%	30/151 · 20%	14/151 · 9%	39	79	13% 79/586	64/151 · 42%	13/151 · 9%	51	9% 51/586
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	23	16-for-71	12/23 · 52%	4/23 · 17%	22	5/23 · 22%	3/23 · 13%	2/23 · 9%	4	11	12% 11/92	10/23 · 43%	1/23 · 4%	13	14% 13/92
L14Sep 14–27	11	8-for-36	5/11 · 45%	3/11 · 27%	10	3/11 · 27%	1/11 · 9%	1/11 · 9%	2	4	9% 4/44	4/11 · 36%	0/11 · 0%	5	11% 5/44
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/3	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/3
This seriesvs New York Yankees	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/3	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/3
vs New York Yankeesregular season	13	8-for-44	6/13 · 46%	2/13 · 15%	12	2/13 · 15%	2/13 · 15%	1/13 · 8%	2	13	27% 13/48	10/13 · 77%	2/13 · 15%	4	8% 4/48

vs Max Fried: 0-for-5, 2 K in 5 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

7Nick SogardSwitch vs LHPSeason43/65L148/12Post0/1Season23/65L143/12Post0/1Season39/65L148/12Post0/1Season20% 56/277vs LHP23% 17/73Season11% 31/277K% vs LHP23% 17/730102210110010321011021221110000000001010

Bats 7th · 4.26 PA per start this season · league average from the 7th spot: 3.73

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	65	61-for-239	43/65 · 66%	17/65 · 26%	92	23/65 · 35%	14/65 · 22%	8/65 · 12%	20	56	20% 56/277	39/65 · 60%	15/65 · 23%	31	11% 31/277
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	24	21-for-88	15/24 · 62%	6/24 · 25%	31	8/24 · 33%	5/24 · 21%	3/24 · 12%	6	22	23% 22/97	15/24 · 62%	6/24 · 25%	6	6% 6/97
L14Sep 14–27	12	10-for-45	8/12 · 67%	2/12 · 17%	14	3/12 · 25%	2/12 · 17%	1/12 · 8%	2	11	23% 11/48	8/12 · 67%	3/12 · 25%	2	4% 2/48
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/3	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/3
This seriesvs New York Yankees	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/3	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/3
vs New York Yankeesregular season	4	4-for-16	3/4	1/4	8	2/4	2/4	1/4	2	5	31% 5/16	3/4	2/4	0	0% 0/16

vs Max Fried: 1-for-1, 1 XBH, 0 K in 1 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

8Trevor StoryRHB vs LHPSeason45/64L146/10Post1/1Season22/64L142/10Post1/1Season50/64L148/10Post1/1Season32% 86/266vs LHP36% 27/76Season4% 11/266K% vs LHP36% 27/761211100001151140000212011223010010000100

Bats 8th · 4.17 PA per start this season · league average from the 8th spot: 3.54

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	64	59-for-251	45/64 · 70%	11/64 · 17%	88	22/64 · 34%	10/64 · 16%	6/64 · 9%	19	86	32% 86/266	50/64 · 78%	27/64 · 42%	11	4% 11/266
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	22	23-for-83	17/22 · 77%	5/22 · 23%	35	10/22 · 45%	5/22 · 23%	2/22 · 9%	8	28	32% 28/87	18/22 · 82%	8/22 · 36%	3	3% 3/87
L14Sep 14–27	10	7-for-33	6/10 · 60%	1/10 · 10%	13	2/10 · 20%	2/10 · 20%	2/10 · 20%	2	13	35% 13/37	8/10 · 80%	4/10 · 40%	3	8% 3/37
Postseasonthis October	1	1-for-3	1/1	0/1	2	1/1	0/1	0/1	1	1	33% 1/3	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/3
This seriesvs New York Yankees	1	1-for-3	1/1	0/1	2	1/1	0/1	0/1	1	1	33% 1/3	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/3
vs New York Yankeesregular season	4	3-for-13	2/4	1/4	4	1/4	1/4	0/4	1	3	21% 3/14	2/4	1/4	1	7% 1/14

vs Max Fried: 0-for-3, 2 K in 3 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

9Nate EatonRHB vs LHPSeason6/21L143/6Season2/21L140/6Season12/21L143/6Season27% 16/60vs LHP31% 11/35Season13% 8/60K% vs LHP31% 11/350010001011001000101112010100111000011100

Bats 9th · 3.06 PA per start this season · league average from the 9th spot: 3.23

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	21	8-for-50	6/21 · 29%	1/21 · 5%	13	2/21 · 10%	2/21 · 10%	2/21 · 10%	3	16	27% 16/60	12/21 · 57%	3/21 · 14%	8	13% 8/60
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	8	4-for-18	4/8	0/8	4	0/8	0/8	0/8	0	4	19% 4/21	4/8	0/8	3	14% 3/21
L14Sep 14–27	6	3-for-12	3/6	0/6	3	0/6	0/6	0/6	0	3	20% 3/15	3/6	0/6	3	20% 3/15
Postseasonthis October	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
This seriesvs New York Yankees	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
vs New York Yankeesregular season	3	0-for-4	0/3	0/3	0	0/3	0/3	0/3	0	2	40% 2/5	2/3	0/3	0	0% 0/5

vs Max Fried: No meetings this season — raw counts; too few to mean much

Yankees✓ Confirmed lineupvs RHP Sonny GrayGames with 1+ hitGames with 2+ total basesGames with 1+ strikeoutStrikeouts per PAWalks per PA

1Ben RiceLHB vs RHPSeason98/154L148/12Post1/1Season68/154L145/12Post1/1Season106/154L148/12Post1/1Season24% 162/666vs RHP23% 102/445Season13% 84/666K% vs RHP23% 102/44520001301247000290131101031013112010011010

Bats 1st · 4.41 PA per start this season · league average from the 1st spot: 4.49

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	154	151-for-573	98/154 · 64%	42/154 · 27%	306	68/154 · 44%	53/154 · 34%	43/154 · 28%	69	162	24% 162/666	106/154 · 69%	41/154 · 27%	84	13% 84/666
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	23	27-for-85	15/23 · 65%	8/23 · 35%	49	10/23 · 43%	7/23 · 30%	5/23 · 22%	9	21	20% 21/103	14/23 · 61%	4/23 · 17%	16	16% 16/103
L14Sep 14–27	12	13-for-43	8/12 · 67%	4/12 · 33%	26	5/12 · 42%	3/12 · 25%	2/12 · 17%	6	12	22% 12/54	8/12 · 67%	2/12 · 17%	10	19% 10/54
Postseasonthis October	1	4-for-5	1/1	1/1	11	1/1	1/1	1/1	3	1	20% 1/5	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/5
This seriesvs Boston Red Sox	1	4-for-5	1/1	1/1	11	1/1	1/1	1/1	3	1	20% 1/5	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/5
vs Boston Red Soxregular season	12	7-for-43	4/12 · 33%	3/12 · 25%	11	3/12 · 25%	2/12 · 17%	1/12 · 8%	2	16	35% 16/46	9/12 · 75%	5/12 · 42%	2	4% 2/46

vs Sonny Gray: 2-for-5, 1 XBH, 0 K, 1 BB in 6 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

2Cody BellingerLHB vs RHPSeason90/132L146/10Post1/1Season53/132L143/10Post0/1Season66/132L144/10Post0/1Season16% 88/562vs RHP16% 59/362Season10% 59/562K% vs RHP16% 59/3623310110001631014000110003010101100001000

Bats 2nd · 4.3 PA per start this season · league average from the 2nd spot: 4.4

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	132	132-for-496	90/132 · 68%	32/132 · 24%	214	53/132 · 40%	28/132 · 21%	20/132 · 15%	45	88	16% 88/562	66/132 · 50%	18/132 · 14%	59	10% 59/562
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	22	28-for-91	16/22 · 73%	8/22 · 36%	46	11/22 · 50%	9/22 · 41%	6/22 · 27%	8	14	15% 14/95	10/22 · 45%	2/22 · 9%	3	3% 3/95
L14Sep 14–27	10	10-for-41	6/10 · 60%	2/10 · 20%	16	3/10 · 30%	3/10 · 30%	2/10 · 20%	2	6	14% 6/44	4/10 · 40%	1/10 · 10%	3	7% 3/44
Postseasonthis October	1	1-for-4	1/1	0/1	1	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
This seriesvs Boston Red Sox	1	1-for-4	1/1	0/1	1	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
vs Boston Red Soxregular season	13	9-for-45	7/13 · 54%	2/13 · 15%	12	2/13 · 15%	1/13 · 8%	1/13 · 8%	1	9	18% 9/49	7/13 · 54%	2/13 · 15%	4	8% 4/49

vs Sonny Gray: 0-for-5, 2 K, 1 BB in 6 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

3Luis García Jr.LHB vs RHPSeason88/147L144/9Post0/1Season54/147L140/9Post0/1Season74/147L147/9Post0/1Season18% 96/543vs RHP17% 79/456Season5% 25/543K% vs RHP17% 79/4560100100110010010011011320112000000000110

Bats 3rd · 4.02 PA per start this season · league average from the 3rd spot: 4.3

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	147	143-for-516	88/147 · 60%	38/147 · 26%	269	54/147 · 37%	45/147 · 31%	31/147 · 21%	61	96	18% 96/543	74/147 · 50%	18/147 · 12%	25	5% 25/543
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	20	16-for-74	11/20 · 55%	4/20 · 20%	24	5/20 · 25%	4/20 · 20%	2/20 · 10%	4	20	26% 20/76	13/20 · 65%	6/20 · 30%	2	3% 2/76
L14Sep 14–27	9	4-for-35	4/9	0/9	4	0/9	0/9	0/9	0	11	30% 11/37	7/9	3/9	2	5% 2/37
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-1	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/1
This seriesvs Boston Red Sox	1	0-for-1	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/1
vs Boston Red Soxregular season	6	7-for-19	5/6	1/6	8	2/6	1/6	0/6	1	2	10% 2/21	2/6	0/6	2	10% 2/21

vs Sonny Gray: No meetings this season — raw counts; too few to mean much

4Spencer JonesLHB vs RHPSeason46/84L146/10Post1/1Season27/84L143/10Post0/1Season63/84L148/10Post0/1Season36% 104/289vs RHP37% 86/230Season9% 25/289K% vs RHP37% 86/2301001011111400401211105222021200000100001

Bats 4th · 3.62 PA per start this season · league average from the 4th spot: 4.18

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	84	64-for-261	46/84 · 55%	15/84 · 18%	112	27/84 · 32%	18/84 · 21%	15/84 · 18%	25	104	36% 104/289	63/84 · 75%	30/84 · 36%	25	9% 25/289
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	22	22-for-83	16/22 · 73%	5/22 · 23%	38	11/22 · 50%	6/22 · 27%	4/22 · 18%	8	35	38% 35/91	17/22 · 77%	12/22 · 55%	7	8% 7/91
L14Sep 14–27	10	6-for-42	6/10 · 60%	0/10 · 0%	13	3/10 · 30%	2/10 · 20%	2/10 · 20%	3	18	42% 18/43	8/10 · 80%	7/10 · 70%	1	2% 1/43
Postseasonthis October	1	1-for-3	1/1	0/1	1	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	1	25% 1/4
This seriesvs Boston Red Sox	1	1-for-3	1/1	0/1	1	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	1	25% 1/4
vs Boston Red Soxregular season	8	7-for-18	5/8	1/8	8	1/8	1/8	1/8	1	6	32% 6/19	4/8	1/8	0	0% 0/19

vs Sonny Gray: 3-for-6, 1 XBH, 3 K in 6 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

5George Lombard Jr.RHB vs RHPSeason27/42L149/11Post1/1Season16/42L146/11Post1/1Season29/42L146/11Post0/1Season27% 44/166vs RHP26% 36/136Season6% 10/166K% vs RHP26% 36/1361202111203150511460300101140200000000000

Bats 5th · 3.95 PA per start this season · league average from the 5th spot: 4.04

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	42	36-for-152	27/42 · 64%	9/42 · 21%	63	16/42 · 38%	8/42 · 19%	7/42 · 17%	12	44	27% 44/166	29/42 · 69%	11/42 · 26%	10	6% 10/166
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	19	16-for-73	12/19 · 63%	4/19 · 21%	34	8/19 · 42%	5/19 · 26%	5/19 · 26%	8	20	25% 20/79	13/19 · 68%	5/19 · 26%	3	4% 3/79
L14Sep 14–27	11	13-for-46	9/11 · 82%	4/11 · 36%	27	6/11 · 55%	4/11 · 36%	4/11 · 36%	6	11	23% 11/47	6/11 · 55%	3/11 · 27%	1	2% 1/47
Postseasonthis October	1	3-for-4	1/1	1/1	3	1/1	1/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
This seriesvs Boston Red Sox	1	3-for-4	1/1	1/1	3	1/1	1/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
vs Boston Red Soxregular season	3	1-for-7	1/3	0/3	1	0/3	0/3	0/3	0	2	25% 2/8	1/3	1/3	1	12% 1/8

vs Sonny Gray: No meetings this season — raw counts; too few to mean much

6Jazz Chisholm Jr.LHB vs RHPSeason82/136L142/3Season42/136L140/3Season101/136L143/3Season29% 156/532vs RHP27% 100/372Season11% 56/532K% vs RHP27% 100/3722130012110216001211001211001122001100110

Bats 6th · 4.03 PA per start this season · league average from the 6th spot: 3.88

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	136	109-for-470	82/136 · 60%	22/136 · 16%	187	42/136 · 31%	29/136 · 21%	21/136 · 15%	37	156	29% 156/532	101/136 · 74%	45/136 · 33%	56	11% 56/532
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	9	9-for-31	6/9	2/9	12	2/9	1/9	1/9	1	9	26% 9/35	7/9	2/9	4	11% 4/35
L14Sep 14–27	3	2-for-10	2/3	0/3	2	0/3	0/3	0/3	0	4	33% 4/12	3/3	1/3	2	17% 2/12
Postseasonthis October	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
This seriesvs Boston Red Sox	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
vs Boston Red Soxregular season	12	8-for-39	5/12 · 42%	3/12 · 25%	14	4/12 · 33%	2/12 · 17%	2/12 · 17%	2	14	33% 14/43	10/12 · 83%	3/12 · 25%	3	7% 3/43

vs Sonny Gray: 0-for-6, 3 K in 6 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

7Trent GrishamLHB vs RHPSeason59/120L140/0Post0/1Season35/120L140/0Post0/1Season66/120L140/0Post0/1Season18% 89/484vs RHP18% 61/348Season13% 61/484K% vs RHP18% 61/3480000001100000000110011011220000101100010

Bats 7th · 4.31 PA per start this season · league average from the 7th spot: 3.73

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	120	88-for-418	59/120 · 49%	24/120 · 20%	165	35/120 · 29%	26/120 · 22%	21/120 · 18%	39	89	18% 89/484	66/120 · 55%	19/120 · 16%	61	13% 61/484
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	4	2-for-11	2/4	0/4	2	0/4	0/4	0/4	0	4	33% 4/12	2/4	2/4	1	8% 1/12
L14Sep 14–27	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-1	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/1
This seriesvs Boston Red Sox	1	0-for-1	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/1
vs Boston Red Soxregular season	8	5-for-26	3/8	1/8	9	2/8	2/8	2/8	2	6	20% 6/30	5/8	1/8	3	10% 3/30

vs Sonny Gray: 1-for-3, 1 XBH, 0 K in 3 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

8Austin WellsLHB vs RHPSeason51/121L145/8Post1/1Season25/121L143/8Post1/1Season73/121L145/8Post0/1Season27% 103/388vs RHP26% 74/289Season12% 48/388K% vs RHP26% 74/2891101210102440151040222010110100001111120

Bats 8th · 3.39 PA per start this season · league average from the 8th spot: 3.54

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	121	62-for-333	51/121 · 42%	10/121 · 8%	111	25/121 · 21%	14/121 · 12%	13/121 · 11%	21	103	27% 103/388	73/121 · 60%	27/121 · 22%	48	12% 48/388
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	20	10-for-52	8/20 · 40%	2/20 · 10%	22	5/20 · 25%	4/20 · 20%	4/20 · 20%	4	15	23% 15/66	12/20 · 60%	3/20 · 15%	14	21% 14/66
L14Sep 14–27	8	6-for-21	5/8	1/8	15	3/8	3/8	3/8	3	6	21% 6/28	5/8	1/8	7	25% 7/28
Postseasonthis October	1	2-for-3	1/1	1/1	2	1/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
This seriesvs Boston Red Sox	1	2-for-3	1/1	1/1	2	1/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
vs Boston Red Soxregular season	12	5-for-35	4/12 · 33%	1/12 · 8%	11	1/12 · 8%	1/12 · 8%	1/12 · 8%	2	9	25% 9/36	6/12 · 50%	2/12 · 17%	0	0% 0/36

vs Sonny Gray: 0-for-5, 1 K in 5 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

9Ryan McMahonLHB vs RHPSeason55/115L143/7Post0/1Season27/115L142/7Post0/1Season77/115L145/7Post0/1Season29% 105/359vs RHP29% 86/294Season8% 27/359K% vs RHP29% 86/2941010000220101000053000041011200000010001

Bats 9th · 3.51 PA per start this season · league average from the 9th spot: 3.23

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	115	70-for-326	55/115 · 48%	14/115 · 12%	117	27/115 · 23%	17/115 · 15%	13/115 · 11%	25	105	29% 105/359	77/115 · 67%	24/115 · 21%	27	8% 27/359
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	16	10-for-49	8/16 · 50%	2/16 · 12%	15	3/16 · 19%	2/16 · 12%	1/16 · 6%	3	13	24% 13/54	8/16 · 50%	3/16 · 19%	4	7% 4/54
L14Sep 14–27	7	5-for-21	3/7	2/7	9	2/7	2/7	1/7	2	9	39% 9/23	5/7	2/7	1	4% 1/23
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-1	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/2	0/1	0/1	1	50% 1/2
This seriesvs Boston Red Sox	1	0-for-1	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/2	0/1	0/1	1	50% 1/2
vs Boston Red Soxregular season	4	2-for-6	2/4	0/4	2	0/4	0/4	0/4	0	2	33% 2/6	2/4	0/4	0	0% 0/6

vs Sonny Gray: 1-for-3, 0 K in 3 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

Thresholds

Games that cleared each mark. Counts first; a rate only from 10 games up. L14 is the last two weeks of the regular season.

1+ hit — games that cleared it
Player	Season	L14	Post
Red Sox
1Jahmai Jones	29/92 · 32%	3/9	—
2Adley Rutschman	57/99 · 58%	7/10 · 70%	1/1
3Willson Contreras	83/129 · 64%	2/4	0/1
4Wilyer Abreu	98/157 · 62%	4/11 · 36%	1/1
5Ceddanne Rafaela	102/136 · 75%	2/3	0/1
6Caleb Durbin	85/151 · 56%	5/11 · 45%	0/1
7Nick Sogard	43/65 · 66%	8/12 · 67%	0/1
8Trevor Story	45/64 · 70%	6/10 · 60%	1/1
9Nate Eaton	6/21 · 29%	3/6	—
Yankees
1Ben Rice	98/154 · 64%	8/12 · 67%	1/1
2Cody Bellinger	90/132 · 68%	6/10 · 60%	1/1
3Luis García Jr.	88/147 · 60%	4/9	0/1
4Spencer Jones	46/84 · 55%	6/10 · 60%	1/1
5George Lombard Jr.	27/42 · 64%	9/11 · 82%	1/1
6Jazz Chisholm Jr.	82/136 · 60%	2/3	—
7Trent Grisham	59/120 · 49%	—	0/1
8Austin Wells	51/121 · 42%	5/8	1/1
9Ryan McMahon	55/115 · 48%	3/7	0/1

2+ hits — games that cleared it
Player	Season	L14	Post
Red Sox
1Jahmai Jones	4/92 · 4%	1/9	—
2Adley Rutschman	24/99 · 24%	2/10 · 20%	0/1
3Willson Contreras	32/129 · 25%	0/4	0/1
4Wilyer Abreu	42/157 · 27%	1/11 · 9%	0/1
5Ceddanne Rafaela	41/136 · 30%	0/3	0/1
6Caleb Durbin	34/151 · 23%	3/11 · 27%	0/1
7Nick Sogard	17/65 · 26%	2/12 · 17%	0/1
8Trevor Story	11/64 · 17%	1/10 · 10%	0/1
9Nate Eaton	1/21 · 5%	0/6	—
Yankees
1Ben Rice	42/154 · 27%	4/12 · 33%	1/1
2Cody Bellinger	32/132 · 24%	2/10 · 20%	0/1
3Luis García Jr.	38/147 · 26%	0/9	0/1
4Spencer Jones	15/84 · 18%	0/10 · 0%	0/1
5George Lombard Jr.	9/42 · 21%	4/11 · 36%	1/1
6Jazz Chisholm Jr.	22/136 · 16%	0/3	—
7Trent Grisham	24/120 · 20%	—	0/1
8Austin Wells	10/121 · 8%	1/8	1/1
9Ryan McMahon	14/115 · 12%	2/7	0/1

2+ TB — games that cleared it
Player	Season	L14	Post
Red Sox
1Jahmai Jones	13/92 · 14%	2/9	—
2Adley Rutschman	37/99 · 37%	5/10 · 50%	0/1
3Willson Contreras	56/129 · 43%	1/4	0/1
4Wilyer Abreu	63/157 · 40%	3/11 · 27%	0/1
5Ceddanne Rafaela	64/136 · 47%	0/3	0/1
6Caleb Durbin	49/151 · 32%	3/11 · 27%	0/1
7Nick Sogard	23/65 · 35%	3/12 · 25%	0/1
8Trevor Story	22/64 · 34%	2/10 · 20%	1/1
9Nate Eaton	2/21 · 10%	0/6	—
Yankees
1Ben Rice	68/154 · 44%	5/12 · 42%	1/1
2Cody Bellinger	53/132 · 40%	3/10 · 30%	0/1
3Luis García Jr.	54/147 · 37%	0/9	0/1
4Spencer Jones	27/84 · 32%	3/10 · 30%	0/1
5George Lombard Jr.	16/42 · 38%	6/11 · 55%	1/1
6Jazz Chisholm Jr.	42/136 · 31%	0/3	—
7Trent Grisham	35/120 · 29%	—	0/1
8Austin Wells	25/121 · 21%	3/8	1/1
9Ryan McMahon	27/115 · 23%	2/7	0/1

3+ TB — games that cleared it
Player	Season	L14	Post
Red Sox
1Jahmai Jones	9/92 · 10%	1/9	—
2Adley Rutschman	22/99 · 22%	2/10 · 20%	0/1
3Willson Contreras	37/129 · 29%	1/4	0/1
4Wilyer Abreu	37/157 · 24%	0/11 · 0%	0/1
5Ceddanne Rafaela	29/136 · 21%	0/3	0/1
6Caleb Durbin	30/151 · 20%	1/11 · 9%	0/1
7Nick Sogard	14/65 · 22%	2/12 · 17%	0/1
8Trevor Story	10/64 · 16%	2/10 · 20%	0/1
9Nate Eaton	2/21 · 10%	0/6	—
Yankees
1Ben Rice	53/154 · 34%	3/12 · 25%	1/1
2Cody Bellinger	28/132 · 21%	3/10 · 30%	0/1
3Luis García Jr.	45/147 · 31%	0/9	0/1
4Spencer Jones	18/84 · 21%	2/10 · 20%	0/1
5George Lombard Jr.	8/42 · 19%	4/11 · 36%	1/1
6Jazz Chisholm Jr.	29/136 · 21%	0/3	—
7Trent Grisham	26/120 · 22%	—	0/1
8Austin Wells	14/121 · 12%	3/8	0/1
9Ryan McMahon	17/115 · 15%	2/7	0/1

4+ TB — games that cleared it
Player	Season	L14	Post
Red Sox
1Jahmai Jones	8/92 · 9%	1/9	—
2Adley Rutschman	17/99 · 17%	2/10 · 20%	0/1
3Willson Contreras	30/129 · 23%	1/4	0/1
4Wilyer Abreu	26/157 · 17%	0/11 · 0%	0/1
5Ceddanne Rafaela	20/136 · 15%	0/3	0/1
6Caleb Durbin	14/151 · 9%	1/11 · 9%	0/1
7Nick Sogard	8/65 · 12%	1/12 · 8%	0/1
8Trevor Story	6/64 · 9%	2/10 · 20%	0/1
9Nate Eaton	2/21 · 10%	0/6	—
Yankees
1Ben Rice	43/154 · 28%	2/12 · 17%	1/1
2Cody Bellinger	20/132 · 15%	2/10 · 20%	0/1
3Luis García Jr.	31/147 · 21%	0/9	0/1
4Spencer Jones	15/84 · 18%	2/10 · 20%	0/1
5George Lombard Jr.	7/42 · 17%	4/11 · 36%	0/1
6Jazz Chisholm Jr.	21/136 · 15%	0/3	—
7Trent Grisham	21/120 · 18%	—	0/1
8Austin Wells	13/121 · 11%	3/8	0/1
9Ryan McMahon	13/115 · 11%	1/7	0/1

1+ K — games that cleared it
Player	Season	L14	Post
Red Sox
1Jahmai Jones	47/92 · 51%	6/9	—
2Adley Rutschman	50/99 · 51%	5/10 · 50%	1/1
3Willson Contreras	93/129 · 72%	3/4	1/1
4Wilyer Abreu	89/157 · 57%	8/11 · 73%	1/1
5Ceddanne Rafaela	81/136 · 60%	2/3	0/1
6Caleb Durbin	64/151 · 42%	4/11 · 36%	0/1
7Nick Sogard	39/65 · 60%	8/12 · 67%	0/1
8Trevor Story	50/64 · 78%	8/10 · 80%	1/1
9Nate Eaton	12/21 · 57%	3/6	—
Yankees
1Ben Rice	106/154 · 69%	8/12 · 67%	1/1
2Cody Bellinger	66/132 · 50%	4/10 · 40%	0/1
3Luis García Jr.	74/147 · 50%	7/9	0/1
4Spencer Jones	63/84 · 75%	8/10 · 80%	0/1
5George Lombard Jr.	29/42 · 69%	6/11 · 55%	0/1
6Jazz Chisholm Jr.	101/136 · 74%	3/3	—
7Trent Grisham	66/120 · 55%	—	0/1
8Austin Wells	73/121 · 60%	5/8	0/1
9Ryan McMahon	77/115 · 67%	5/7	0/1

2+ K — games that cleared it
Player	Season	L14	Post
Red Sox
1Jahmai Jones	10/92 · 11%	2/9	—
2Adley Rutschman	14/99 · 14%	1/10 · 10%	1/1
3Willson Contreras	32/129 · 25%	1/4	1/1
4Wilyer Abreu	40/157 · 25%	4/11 · 36%	0/1
5Ceddanne Rafaela	31/136 · 23%	0/3	0/1
6Caleb Durbin	13/151 · 9%	0/11 · 0%	0/1
7Nick Sogard	15/65 · 23%	3/12 · 25%	0/1
8Trevor Story	27/64 · 42%	4/10 · 40%	0/1
9Nate Eaton	3/21 · 14%	0/6	—
Yankees
1Ben Rice	41/154 · 27%	2/12 · 17%	0/1
2Cody Bellinger	18/132 · 14%	1/10 · 10%	0/1
3Luis García Jr.	18/147 · 12%	3/9	0/1
4Spencer Jones	30/84 · 36%	7/10 · 70%	0/1
5George Lombard Jr.	11/42 · 26%	3/11 · 27%	0/1
6Jazz Chisholm Jr.	45/136 · 33%	1/3	—
7Trent Grisham	19/120 · 16%	—	0/1
8Austin Wells	27/121 · 22%	1/8	0/1
9Ryan McMahon	24/115 · 21%	2/7	0/1

4+ K — starts that cleared it
Starter	Season	Last 6 recorded	Post
Sonny Gray	20/29 · 69%	5/6	—
Max Fried	18/20 · 90%	6/6	—

5+ K — starts that cleared it
Starter	Season	Last 6 recorded	Post
Sonny Gray	17/29 · 59%	5/6	—
Max Fried	11/20 · 55%	2/6	—

6+ K — starts that cleared it
Starter	Season	Last 6 recorded	Post
Sonny Gray	12/29 · 41%	3/6	—
Max Fried	9/20 · 45%	2/6	—

7+ K — starts that cleared it
Starter	Season	Last 6 recorded	Post
Sonny Gray	9/29 · 31%	1/6	—
Max Fried	5/20 · 25%	1/6	—

3 or fewer — starts that cleared it
Starter	Season	Last 6 recorded	Post
Sonny Gray	7/29 · 24%	2/6	—
Max Fried	9/20 · 45%	2/6	—

4 or fewer — starts that cleared it
Starter	Season	Last 6 recorded	Post
Sonny Gray	12/29 · 41%	3/6	—
Max Fried	11/20 · 55%	3/6	—

5 or fewer — starts that cleared it
Starter	Season	Last 6 recorded	Post
Sonny Gray	16/29 · 55%	3/6	—
Max Fried	15/20 · 75%	4/6	—

6 or fewer — starts that cleared it
Starter	Season	Last 6 recorded	Post
Sonny Gray	23/29 · 79%	4/6	—
Max Fried	20/20 · 100%	6/6	—

1 or fewer — starts that cleared it
Starter	Season	Last 6 recorded	Post
Sonny Gray	15/29 · 52%	2/6	—
Max Fried	9/20 · 45%	3/6	—

2 or fewer — starts that cleared it
Starter	Season	Last 6 recorded	Post
Sonny Gray	24/29 · 83%	4/6	—
Max Fried	16/20 · 80%	6/6	—

3+ — starts that cleared it
Starter	Season	Last 6 recorded	Post
Sonny Gray	5/29 · 17%	2/6	—
Max Fried	4/20 · 20%	0/6	—

regular season ends · 2 playoff game · strips run oldest → newest · tap a hitter for L28, the opponent, the series and the matchup. Built from the play-by-play feed, which does not pick up official scoring changes, so a season total can differ from MLB’s by a hit. Evidence, not picks: no odds are read and nothing here is scored.

Game Analysis

Context and interpretation

Team Identity

Boston Red Sox

Season-to-date, 162 games, 6,346 PA.

A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The offense has cooled off recently.

Power

Below Avg38

Contact

Average50

Plate Discipline

Below Avg35

Speed

Below Avg42

RISP

Well Below19

Recent Form

Trending Down

Total bases per PA is down 17% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

New York Yankees

Season-to-date, 161 games, 6,245 PA.

A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone. The offense has cooled off recently.

Power

Above Avg77

Contact

Well Below11

Plate Discipline

Above Avg72

Speed

Average65

RISP

Below Avg31

Recent Form

Trending Down

Walk rate is down 9% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Yankees' offense is defined by being power-hitting, and this game tests whether Red Sox can match it.

Swing Factor

Red Sox rank in the 38th percentile in extra-base production, while Max Fried sits in the 92nd percentile at suppressing total bases.

Momentum

Red Sox are trending down and Yankees are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can either lineup run up a starter's pitch count?

Red Sox' nine see 3.94 pitches per plate appearance against LHPs (league 3.89); Max Fried averages ~85 pitches and 21.7 batters a start. Yankees' nine see 4.02 pitches per plate appearance against RHPs (league 3.89); Sonny Gray averages ~85 pitches and 23.5 batters a start.

Edge · YankeesRed Sox: 3.94 P/PAYankees: 4.02 P/PAModerate confidence

Which lineup has the platoon advantage?

8 of 9 in the Red Sox' confirmed lineup bat from the other side of Max Fried (LHP); 8 of 9 in the Yankees' confirmed lineup bat from the other side of Sonny Gray (RHP). Switch hitters count.

Edge · EvenRed Sox: 8/9Yankees: 8/9High confidence

Which bullpen is under more pressure?

Red Sox relievers ~215 pitches; Yankees relievers ~29 pitches (Sep 27–29).

Edge · YankeesRed Sox: ~215 relief pitchesYankees: ~29 relief pitchesModerate confidence

Through Sep 29, the feed's last day. Relief pitches are reconstructed from play-by-play.

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Yankees bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.

Both probable starters grade around the 67th percentile in combined suppression.
Red Sox are trending down; Yankees are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Can Yankees handle Sonny Gray's strikeout stuff?

Yankees have been a below-average contact team while Sonny Gray misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.

Yankees contact percentile: 11

Does Yankees' power tilt the game?

Yankees bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.

Red Sox power pct 38 vs Yankees 77

Is Austin Wells the one to watch?

Austin Wells enters as Yankees' hottest bat. On-base rate is up 92% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 17%.

0.208 hit rate · 0.458 TB/PA · 0.147 hit rate · 0.258 TB/PA

Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-30, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.