Cubs at Padres · Sports Today

NL Wild Card Series · Game 3 of 3Padres lead 1-0 · If necessary

Chicago Cubs

No. 5 seed · 89-73 in the regular season

Regular-season form: bats heating up

Starter TBD

San Diego Padres

No. 4 seed · 91-71 in the regular season

Regular-season form: bats heating up

Starter TBD

MLB · Petco Park, hits run 6% below average here · 7:00 PM PT

Probable starters not yet available

Playoff Prop Desk

Evidence for player and pitcher decisions

Data through Sep 29 · regular season ended Sep 27

Lineup spot leads because it sets plate appearances, which predict a hit more than twice as well as recent hitting does.

Total bases rides on the same chances as a hit, plus extra-base power. We do not model it; these are records.

The opposing starter carries batter strikeouts more than the batter's own form, so his strikeout rate sits beside every row.

Workload leads: a postseason hook can cut a starter's batters faced, and strikeouts need batters.

Records only. When this market was measured, recent hits allowed carried no information beyond its base rate.

Records only — the site has no walks model.

Cubs starter

No probable starter matched in the feed, so there is nothing to show.

Padres starter

No probable starter matched in the feed, so there is nothing to show.

CubsNot confirmedGames with 1+ hitGames with 2+ total basesGames with 1+ strikeoutStrikeouts per PAWalks per PA

Not posted yet — this is the last game's order (Sep 29), not tonight's

1Pete Crow-ArmstrongLHBSeason111/162L147/12Post0/1Season76/162L144/12Post0/1Season115/162L149/12Post1/1Season26% 187/726vs SP—Season11% 83/726K% vs SP—0032011010007301101031011111030002111001

Bats 1st · 4.49 PA per start this season · league average from the 1st spot: 4.49

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	162	174-for-626	111/162 · 69%	42/162 · 26%	356	76/162 · 47%	51/162 · 31%	40/162 · 25%	84	187	26% 187/726	115/162 · 71%	56/162 · 35%	83	11% 83/726
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	25	26-for-99	17/25 · 68%	5/25 · 20%	53	8/25 · 32%	7/25 · 28%	6/25 · 24%	12	27	24% 27/113	20/25 · 80%	5/25 · 20%	12	11% 12/113
L14Sep 14–27	12	15-for-48	7/12 · 58%	4/12 · 33%	32	4/12 · 33%	4/12 · 33%	3/12 · 25%	8	11	20% 11/54	9/12 · 75%	1/12 · 8%	6	11% 6/54
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	3	75% 3/4	1/1	1/1	1	25% 1/4
This seriesvs San Diego Padres	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	3	75% 3/4	1/1	1/1	1	25% 1/4
vs San Diego Padresregular season	6	8-for-22	6/6	2/6	20	5/6	4/6	4/6	4	6	22% 6/27	5/6	1/6	5	19% 5/27

2Alex BregmanRHBSeason101/155L143/8Post0/1Season62/155L142/8Post0/1Season78/155L143/8Post1/1Season15% 102/702vs SP—Season11% 76/702K% vs SP—10030010402009001011000100101031010011010

Bats 2nd · 4.54 PA per start this season · league average from the 2nd spot: 4.4

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	155	160-for-608	101/155 · 65%	42/155 · 27%	281	62/155 · 40%	34/155 · 22%	27/155 · 17%	63	102	15% 102/702	78/155 · 50%	20/155 · 13%	76	11% 76/702
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	21	25-for-75	13/21 · 62%	7/21 · 33%	57	10/21 · 48%	5/21 · 24%	5/21 · 24%	15	6	7% 6/88	6/21 · 29%	0/21 · 0%	10	11% 10/88
L14Sep 14–27	8	8-for-29	3/8	2/8	21	2/8	2/8	2/8	6	3	9% 3/33	3/8	0/8	4	12% 4/33
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-4	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	3	75% 3/4	1/1	1/1	0	0% 0/4
This seriesvs San Diego Padres	1	0-for-4	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	3	75% 3/4	1/1	1/1	0	0% 0/4
vs San Diego Padresregular season	6	6-for-21	4/6	2/6	9	3/6	1/6	1/6	1	1	4% 1/28	1/6	0/6	7	25% 7/28

3Michael BuschLHBSeason102/160L147/12Post0/1Season59/160L144/12Post0/1Season112/160L149/12Post1/1Season23% 165/710vs SP—Season13% 92/710K% vs SP—0211202200051120220011212102012012001001

Bats 3rd · 4.48 PA per start this season · league average from the 3rd spot: 4.3

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	160	145-for-600	102/160 · 64%	36/160 · 22%	236	59/160 · 37%	38/160 · 24%	27/160 · 17%	49	165	23% 165/710	112/160 · 70%	44/160 · 28%	92	13% 92/710
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	25	22-for-86	15/25 · 60%	7/25 · 28%	35	11/25 · 44%	5/25 · 20%	3/25 · 12%	7	25	24% 25/103	19/25 · 76%	6/25 · 24%	15	15% 15/103
L14Sep 14–27	12	11-for-40	7/12 · 58%	4/12 · 33%	14	4/12 · 33%	1/12 · 8%	1/12 · 8%	1	13	25% 13/51	9/12 · 75%	4/12 · 33%	10	20% 10/51
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	25% 1/4	1/1	0/1	1	25% 1/4
This seriesvs San Diego Padres	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	25% 1/4	1/1	0/1	1	25% 1/4
vs San Diego Padresregular season	6	3-for-25	2/6	1/6	9	2/6	2/6	2/6	2	10	32% 10/31	5/6	4/6	5	16% 5/31

4Seiya SuzukiRHBSeason94/143L149/11Post1/1Season65/143L145/11Post0/1Season105/143L1411/11Post0/1Season24% 155/633vs SP—Season13% 80/633K% vs SP—0121212021012431502113111112100010001111

Bats 4th · 4.5 PA per start this season · league average from the 4th spot: 4.18

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	143	147-for-545	94/143 · 66%	42/143 · 29%	258	65/143 · 45%	42/143 · 29%	31/143 · 22%	58	155	24% 155/633	105/143 · 73%	36/143 · 25%	80	13% 80/633
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	24	22-for-89	14/24 · 58%	6/24 · 25%	36	9/24 · 38%	5/24 · 21%	4/24 · 17%	7	23	21% 23/107	18/24 · 75%	4/24 · 17%	17	16% 17/107
L14Sep 14–27	11	13-for-46	9/11 · 82%	4/11 · 36%	20	5/11 · 45%	3/11 · 27%	2/11 · 18%	3	16	31% 16/51	11/11 · 100%	4/11 · 36%	4	8% 4/51
Postseasonthis October	1	1-for-3	1/1	0/1	1	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	1	25% 1/4
This seriesvs San Diego Padres	1	1-for-3	1/1	0/1	1	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	1	25% 1/4
vs San Diego Padresregular season	5	11-for-22	5/5	5/5	19	5/5	3/5	2/5	4	4	16% 4/25	4/5	0/5	2	8% 2/25

5Ian HappSwitchSeason86/155L147/12Post0/1Season54/155L146/12Post0/1Season117/155L145/12Post0/1Season30% 189/636vs SP—Season13% 81/636K% vs SP—1021110000403123000010220001300100011001

Bats 5th · 4.27 PA per start this season · league average from the 5th spot: 4.04

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	155	119-for-546	86/155 · 55%	29/155 · 19%	225	54/155 · 35%	35/155 · 23%	26/155 · 17%	55	189	30% 189/636	117/155 · 75%	58/155 · 37%	81	13% 81/636
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	23	13-for-66	11/23 · 48%	2/23 · 9%	22	7/23 · 30%	3/23 · 13%	1/23 · 4%	6	19	24% 19/78	11/23 · 48%	7/23 · 30%	12	15% 12/78
L14Sep 14–27	12	8-for-37	7/12 · 58%	1/12 · 8%	17	6/12 · 50%	3/12 · 25%	1/12 · 8%	6	9	22% 9/41	5/12 · 42%	3/12 · 25%	4	10% 4/41
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	1	25% 1/4
This seriesvs San Diego Padres	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	1	25% 1/4
vs San Diego Padresregular season	6	4-for-22	4/6	0/6	6	2/6	0/6	0/6	2	7	27% 7/26	5/6	2/6	3	12% 3/26

6Nico HoernerRHBSeason108/159L147/12Post1/1Season55/159L143/12Post1/1Season51/159L142/12Post0/1Season8% 58/689vs SP—Season6% 43/689K% vs SP—1210110202131011020200011000000011000000

Bats 6th · 4.38 PA per start this season · league average from the 6th spot: 3.88

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	159	165-for-628	108/159 · 68%	40/159 · 25%	220	55/159 · 35%	26/159 · 16%	15/159 · 9%	38	58	8% 58/689	51/159 · 32%	7/159 · 4%	43	6% 43/689
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	25	25-for-95	16/25 · 64%	7/25 · 28%	30	8/25 · 32%	5/25 · 20%	1/25 · 4%	3	6	6% 6/101	5/25 · 20%	1/25 · 4%	3	3% 3/101
L14Sep 14–27	12	10-for-44	7/12 · 58%	3/12 · 25%	11	3/12 · 25%	1/12 · 8%	0/12 · 0%	1	2	4% 2/48	2/12 · 17%	0/12 · 0%	2	4% 2/48
Postseasonthis October	1	2-for-4	1/1	1/1	2	1/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
This seriesvs San Diego Padres	1	2-for-4	1/1	1/1	2	1/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
vs San Diego Padresregular season	6	4-for-24	4/6	0/6	5	1/6	0/6	0/6	1	3	11% 3/28	2/6	1/6	2	7% 2/28

7Pedro RamirezSwitchSeason40/78L146/9Post0/1Season25/78L142/9Post0/1Season38/78L146/9Post1/1Season18% 49/266vs SP—Season8% 20/266K% vs SP—0113011020011301102000202111111000001000

Bats 7th · 3.89 PA per start this season · league average from the 7th spot: 3.73

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	78	63-for-241	40/78 · 51%	19/78 · 24%	97	25/78 · 32%	16/78 · 21%	9/78 · 12%	20	49	18% 49/266	38/78 · 49%	10/78 · 13%	20	8% 20/266
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	19	14-for-69	10/19 · 53%	3/19 · 16%	22	5/19 · 26%	3/19 · 16%	2/19 · 11%	4	16	21% 16/75	12/19 · 63%	4/19 · 21%	4	5% 4/75
L14Sep 14–27	9	9-for-35	6/9	2/9	9	2/9	1/9	0/9	0	8	21% 8/38	6/9	2/9	2	5% 2/38
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-4	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	25% 1/4	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
This seriesvs San Diego Padres	1	0-for-4	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	25% 1/4	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
vs San Diego Padresregular season	1	0-for-2	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/2	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/2

8Carson KellyRHBSeason69/116L144/9Post0/1Season38/116L142/9Post0/1Season52/116L142/9Post1/1Season16% 70/425vs SP—Season9% 40/425K% vs SP—1022010000102201000000000300111001000000

Bats 8th · 4.04 PA per start this season · league average from the 8th spot: 3.54

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	116	98-for-380	69/116 · 59%	25/116 · 22%	143	38/116 · 33%	17/116 · 15%	12/116 · 10%	25	70	16% 70/425	52/116 · 45%	15/116 · 13%	40	9% 40/425
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	20	15-for-61	10/20 · 50%	4/20 · 20%	20	5/20 · 25%	2/20 · 10%	1/20 · 5%	3	10	15% 10/66	6/20 · 30%	3/20 · 15%	3	5% 3/66
L14Sep 14–27	9	6-for-26	4/9	2/9	6	2/9	0/9	0/9	0	4	14% 4/29	2/9	1/9	2	7% 2/29
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	33% 1/3	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/3
This seriesvs San Diego Padres	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	33% 1/3	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/3
vs San Diego Padresregular season	2	3-for-9	2/2	1/2	3	1/2	0/2	0/2	0	1	10% 1/10	1/2	0/2	1	10% 1/10

9Dansby SwansonRHBSeason62/124L143/7Post0/1Season37/124L141/7Post0/1Season81/124L145/7Post1/1Season24% 115/486vs SP—Season10% 51/486K% vs SP—0112010000011501000011104011212010010010

Bats 9th · 3.94 PA per start this season · league average from the 9th spot: 3.23

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	124	90-for-428	62/124 · 50%	23/124 · 19%	169	37/124 · 30%	23/124 · 19%	16/124 · 13%	38	115	24% 115/486	81/124 · 65%	30/124 · 24%	51	10% 51/486
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	7	4-for-25	3/7	1/7	7	1/7	1/7	1/7	1	9	32% 9/28	5/7	2/7	3	11% 3/28
L14Sep 14–27	7	4-for-25	3/7	1/7	7	1/7	1/7	1/7	1	9	32% 9/28	5/7	2/7	3	11% 3/28
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	33% 1/3	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/3
This seriesvs San Diego Padres	1	0-for-3	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	33% 1/3	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/3
vs San Diego Padresregular season	5	11-for-17	5/5	4/5	28	5/5	3/5	2/5	7	1	6% 1/18	1/5	0/5	1	6% 1/18

PadresNot confirmedGames with 1+ hitGames with 2+ total basesGames with 1+ strikeoutStrikeouts per PAWalks per PA

Not posted yet — this is the last game's order (Sep 29), not tonight's

1Fernando Tatis Jr.RHBSeason113/159L1410/12Post1/1Season74/159L148/12Post1/1Season91/159L149/12Post1/1Season18% 129/703vs SP—Season9% 64/703K% vs SP—1111132202214414230512102110011100001011

Bats 1st · 4.48 PA per start this season · league average from the 1st spot: 4.49

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	159	181-for-625	113/159 · 71%	47/159 · 30%	294	74/159 · 47%	42/159 · 26%	32/159 · 20%	60	129	18% 129/703	91/159 · 57%	29/159 · 18%	64	9% 64/703
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	24	32-for-97	19/24 · 79%	9/24 · 38%	62	17/24 · 71%	13/24 · 54%	8/24 · 33%	13	18	17% 18/109	15/24 · 62%	3/24 · 12%	10	9% 10/109
L14Sep 14–27	12	14-for-49	10/12 · 83%	3/12 · 25%	29	8/12 · 67%	6/12 · 50%	5/12 · 42%	7	11	20% 11/55	9/12 · 75%	2/12 · 17%	4	7% 4/55
Postseasonthis October	1	2-for-3	1/1	1/1	5	1/1	1/1	1/1	1	1	25% 1/4	1/1	0/1	1	25% 1/4
This seriesvs Chicago Cubs	1	2-for-3	1/1	1/1	5	1/1	1/1	1/1	1	1	25% 1/4	1/1	0/1	1	25% 1/4
vs Chicago Cubsregular season	6	6-for-26	4/6	2/6	12	2/6	1/6	1/6	2	6	22% 6/27	4/6	2/6	0	0% 0/27

2Samad TaylorRHBSeason32/47L146/11Post0/1Season15/47L145/11Post0/1Season31/47L145/11Post1/1Season26% 45/175vs SP—Season10% 18/175K% vs SP—2213000010324400001010100130111110010000

Bats 2nd · 4.02 PA per start this season · league average from the 2nd spot: 4.4

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	47	49-for-149	32/47 · 68%	13/47 · 28%	63	15/47 · 32%	10/47 · 21%	4/47 · 9%	8	45	26% 45/175	31/47 · 66%	10/47 · 21%	18	10% 18/175
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	20	18-for-61	11/20 · 55%	6/20 · 30%	26	7/20 · 35%	5/20 · 25%	3/20 · 15%	5	15	21% 15/71	11/20 · 55%	2/20 · 10%	6	8% 6/71
L14Sep 14–27	11	11-for-31	6/11 · 55%	4/11 · 36%	16	5/11 · 45%	3/11 · 27%	2/11 · 18%	3	7	18% 7/38	5/11 · 45%	1/11 · 9%	4	11% 4/38
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-1	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	50% 1/2	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/2
This seriesvs Chicago Cubs	1	0-for-1	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	50% 1/2	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/2
vs Chicago Cubsregular season	3	4-for-10	3/3	1/3	6	2/3	1/3	0/3	1	3	27% 3/11	2/3	1/3	1	9% 1/11

3Manny MachadoRHBSeason87/158L147/13Post1/1Season56/158L144/13Post1/1Season103/158L148/13Post0/1Season21% 143/677vs SP—Season11% 76/677K% vs SP—0200100212020040051621210220101001000001

Bats 3rd · 4.29 PA per start this season · league average from the 3rd spot: 4.3

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	158	129-for-589	87/158 · 55%	34/158 · 22%	241	56/158 · 35%	38/158 · 24%	32/158 · 20%	52	143	21% 143/677	103/158 · 65%	36/158 · 23%	76	11% 76/677
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	24	21-for-90	14/24 · 58%	5/24 · 21%	41	10/24 · 42%	8/24 · 33%	7/24 · 29%	8	19	18% 19/104	14/24 · 58%	5/24 · 21%	11	11% 11/104
L14Sep 14–27	13	9-for-51	7/13 · 54%	2/13 · 15%	18	4/13 · 31%	3/13 · 23%	3/13 · 23%	3	12	21% 12/56	8/13 · 62%	4/13 · 31%	3	5% 3/56
Postseasonthis October	1	2-for-3	1/1	1/1	6	1/1	1/1	1/1	2	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	1	25% 1/4
This seriesvs Chicago Cubs	1	2-for-3	1/1	1/1	6	1/1	1/1	1/1	2	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	1	25% 1/4
vs Chicago Cubsregular season	5	6-for-20	3/5	2/5	12	3/5	2/5	2/5	4	5	24% 5/21	3/5	2/5	1	5% 1/21

4Ty FranceRHBSeason78/128L148/13Post1/1Season53/128L146/13Post1/1Season73/128L148/13Post0/1Season21% 107/500vs SP—Season7% 37/500K% vs SP—2300100122540010012210120231000001001010

Bats 4th · 4.08 PA per start this season · league average from the 4th spot: 4.18

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	128	130-for-440	78/128 · 61%	43/128 · 34%	221	53/128 · 41%	36/128 · 28%	26/128 · 20%	47	107	21% 107/500	73/128 · 57%	28/128 · 22%	37	7% 37/500
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	22	28-for-85	13/22 · 59%	10/22 · 45%	41	11/22 · 50%	8/22 · 36%	7/22 · 32%	9	19	20% 19/95	13/22 · 59%	5/22 · 23%	7	7% 7/95
L14Sep 14–27	13	16-for-52	8/13 · 62%	5/13 · 38%	23	6/13 · 46%	4/13 · 31%	4/13 · 31%	5	13	22% 13/58	8/13 · 62%	4/13 · 31%	3	5% 3/58
Postseasonthis October	1	2-for-4	1/1	1/1	2	1/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
This seriesvs Chicago Cubs	1	2-for-4	1/1	1/1	2	1/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
vs Chicago Cubsregular season	6	10-for-22	5/6	5/6	14	5/6	2/6	1/6	3	3	12% 3/26	2/6	1/6	2	8% 2/26

5Jackson MerrillLHBSeason95/157L1410/12Post1/1Season69/157L147/12Post1/1Season103/157L149/12Post1/1Season24% 160/664vs SP—Season6% 41/664K% vs SP—1111001122341100212212311020210010000010

Bats 5th · 4.24 PA per start this season · league average from the 5th spot: 4.04

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	157	156-for-614	95/157 · 61%	44/157 · 28%	270	69/157 · 44%	45/157 · 29%	31/157 · 20%	57	160	24% 160/664	103/157 · 66%	43/157 · 27%	41	6% 41/664
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	24	32-for-94	17/24 · 71%	9/24 · 38%	53	14/24 · 58%	9/24 · 38%	5/24 · 21%	11	22	22% 22/101	15/24 · 62%	6/24 · 25%	4	4% 4/101
L14Sep 14–27	12	16-for-48	10/12 · 83%	4/12 · 33%	22	7/12 · 58%	4/12 · 33%	1/12 · 8%	3	15	30% 15/50	9/12 · 75%	5/12 · 42%	2	4% 2/50
Postseasonthis October	1	2-for-4	1/1	1/1	2	1/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	25% 1/4	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
This seriesvs Chicago Cubs	1	2-for-4	1/1	1/1	2	1/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	25% 1/4	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
vs Chicago Cubsregular season	6	3-for-23	3/6	0/6	3	0/6	0/6	0/6	0	6	24% 6/25	4/6	1/6	2	8% 2/25

6Austin HaysRHBSeason22/38L144/7Post0/1Season10/38L142/7Post0/1Season18/38L142/7Post1/1Season26% 27/105vs SP—Season4% 4/105K% vs SP—2220011020235001102001001000120000000010

Bats 6th · 3.31 PA per start this season · league average from the 6th spot: 3.88

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	38	28-for-100	22/38 · 58%	6/38 · 16%	40	10/38 · 26%	4/38 · 11%	3/38 · 8%	6	27	26% 27/105	18/38 · 47%	7/38 · 18%	4	4% 4/105
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	15	12-for-29	8/15 · 53%	4/15 · 27%	17	5/15 · 33%	2/15 · 13%	1/15 · 7%	3	7	23% 7/31	6/15 · 40%	1/15 · 7%	1	3% 1/31
L14Sep 14–27	7	6-for-14	4/7	2/7	9	2/7	1/7	1/7	1	2	13% 2/15	2/7	0/7	1	7% 1/15
Postseasonthis October	1	0-for-4	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	2	50% 2/4	1/1	1/1	0	0% 0/4
This seriesvs Chicago Cubs	1	0-for-4	0/1	0/1	0	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	2	50% 2/4	1/1	1/1	0	0% 0/4
vs Chicago Cubsregular season	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

7Xander BogaertsRHBSeason87/153L148/11Post1/1Season44/153L144/11Post1/1Season82/153L145/11Post1/1Season18% 108/606vs SP—Season13% 77/606K% vs SP—0321100212093110024502100200112001011020

Bats 7th · 4 PA per start this season · league average from the 7th spot: 3.73

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	153	120-for-520	87/153 · 57%	28/153 · 18%	179	44/153 · 29%	23/153 · 15%	15/153 · 10%	32	108	18% 108/606	82/153 · 54%	21/153 · 14%	77	13% 77/606
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	23	24-for-78	16/23 · 70%	5/23 · 22%	37	8/23 · 35%	4/23 · 17%	3/23 · 13%	8	19	21% 19/92	11/23 · 48%	7/23 · 30%	14	15% 14/92
L14Sep 14–27	11	12-for-34	8/11 · 73%	3/11 · 27%	22	4/11 · 36%	3/11 · 27%	2/11 · 18%	5	8	19% 8/42	5/11 · 45%	3/11 · 27%	8	19% 8/42
Postseasonthis October	1	2-for-4	1/1	1/1	5	1/1	1/1	1/1	1	1	25% 1/4	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
This seriesvs Chicago Cubs	1	2-for-4	1/1	1/1	5	1/1	1/1	1/1	1	1	25% 1/4	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
vs Chicago Cubsregular season	6	6-for-21	4/6	2/6	10	3/6	2/6	1/6	2	4	17% 4/24	3/6	1/6	3	12% 3/24

8Jake CronenworthLHBSeason58/108L149/13Post1/1Season34/108L146/13Post0/1Season74/108L1410/13Post1/1Season23% 96/425vs SP—Season9% 39/425K% vs SP—21300012012110000130101111211111100000020

Bats 8th · 4.04 PA per start this season · league average from the 8th spot: 3.54

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	108	85-for-375	58/108 · 54%	23/108 · 21%	121	34/108 · 31%	15/108 · 14%	8/108 · 7%	21	96	23% 96/425	74/108 · 69%	20/108 · 19%	39	9% 39/425
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	24	20-for-84	13/24 · 54%	6/24 · 25%	33	7/24 · 29%	4/24 · 17%	3/24 · 12%	6	20	21% 20/94	16/24 · 67%	4/24 · 17%	8	9% 8/94
L14Sep 14–27	13	16-for-47	9/13 · 69%	6/13 · 46%	26	6/13 · 46%	3/13 · 23%	2/13 · 15%	5	12	23% 12/53	10/13 · 77%	2/13 · 15%	5	9% 5/53
Postseasonthis October	1	1-for-4	1/1	0/1	1	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	25% 1/4	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
This seriesvs Chicago Cubs	1	1-for-4	1/1	0/1	1	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	1	25% 1/4	1/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
vs Chicago Cubsregular season	5	3-for-13	1/5	1/5	3	1/5	1/5	0/5	0	2	13% 2/15	2/5	0/5	1	7% 1/15

9Luis CampusanoRHBSeason38/71L143/7Post1/1Season20/71L142/7Post0/1Season36/71L144/7Post0/1Season21% 53/248vs SP—Season12% 30/248K% vs SP—1002002101100500210110202100100000020010

Bats 9th · 3.77 PA per start this season · league average from the 9th spot: 3.23

	G	H-AB	1+ H	2+ H	TB	2+ TB	3+ TB	4+ TB	XBH	K	K/PA	1+ K	2+ K	BB	BB/PA
Regular seasonall of it	71	57-for-215	38/71 · 54%	16/71 · 23%	93	20/71 · 28%	12/71 · 17%	9/71 · 13%	20	53	21% 53/248	36/71 · 51%	15/71 · 21%	30	12% 30/248
L28Aug 31–Sep 27	19	16-for-69	10/19 · 53%	6/19 · 32%	26	7/19 · 37%	3/19 · 16%	3/19 · 16%	4	15	20% 15/76	12/19 · 63%	3/19 · 16%	6	8% 6/76
L14Sep 14–27	7	5-for-26	3/7	2/7	8	2/7	1/7	1/7	1	6	21% 6/29	4/7	2/7	3	10% 3/29
Postseasonthis October	1	1-for-4	1/1	0/1	1	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
This seriesvs Chicago Cubs	1	1-for-4	1/1	0/1	1	0/1	0/1	0/1	0	0	0% 0/4	0/1	0/1	0	0% 0/4
vs Chicago Cubsregular season	2	1-for-6	1/2	0/2	1	0/2	0/2	0/2	0	4	57% 4/7	2/2	2/2	1	14% 1/7

Thresholds

Games that cleared each mark. Counts first; a rate only from 10 games up. L14 is the last two weeks of the regular season.

1+ hit — games that cleared it
Player	Season	L14	Post
Cubs
1Pete Crow-Armstrong	111/162 · 69%	7/12 · 58%	0/1
2Alex Bregman	101/155 · 65%	3/8	0/1
3Michael Busch	102/160 · 64%	7/12 · 58%	0/1
4Seiya Suzuki	94/143 · 66%	9/11 · 82%	1/1
5Ian Happ	86/155 · 55%	7/12 · 58%	0/1
6Nico Hoerner	108/159 · 68%	7/12 · 58%	1/1
7Pedro Ramirez	40/78 · 51%	6/9	0/1
8Carson Kelly	69/116 · 59%	4/9	0/1
9Dansby Swanson	62/124 · 50%	3/7	0/1
Padres
1Fernando Tatis Jr.	113/159 · 71%	10/12 · 83%	1/1
2Samad Taylor	32/47 · 68%	6/11 · 55%	0/1
3Manny Machado	87/158 · 55%	7/13 · 54%	1/1
4Ty France	78/128 · 61%	8/13 · 62%	1/1
5Jackson Merrill	95/157 · 61%	10/12 · 83%	1/1
6Austin Hays	22/38 · 58%	4/7	0/1
7Xander Bogaerts	87/153 · 57%	8/11 · 73%	1/1
8Jake Cronenworth	58/108 · 54%	9/13 · 69%	1/1
9Luis Campusano	38/71 · 54%	3/7	1/1

2+ hits — games that cleared it
Player	Season	L14	Post
Cubs
1Pete Crow-Armstrong	42/162 · 26%	4/12 · 33%	0/1
2Alex Bregman	42/155 · 27%	2/8	0/1
3Michael Busch	36/160 · 22%	4/12 · 33%	0/1
4Seiya Suzuki	42/143 · 29%	4/11 · 36%	0/1
5Ian Happ	29/155 · 19%	1/12 · 8%	0/1
6Nico Hoerner	40/159 · 25%	3/12 · 25%	1/1
7Pedro Ramirez	19/78 · 24%	2/9	0/1
8Carson Kelly	25/116 · 22%	2/9	0/1
9Dansby Swanson	23/124 · 19%	1/7	0/1
Padres
1Fernando Tatis Jr.	47/159 · 30%	3/12 · 25%	1/1
2Samad Taylor	13/47 · 28%	4/11 · 36%	0/1
3Manny Machado	34/158 · 22%	2/13 · 15%	1/1
4Ty France	43/128 · 34%	5/13 · 38%	1/1
5Jackson Merrill	44/157 · 28%	4/12 · 33%	1/1
6Austin Hays	6/38 · 16%	2/7	0/1
7Xander Bogaerts	28/153 · 18%	3/11 · 27%	1/1
8Jake Cronenworth	23/108 · 21%	6/13 · 46%	0/1
9Luis Campusano	16/71 · 23%	2/7	0/1

2+ TB — games that cleared it
Player	Season	L14	Post
Cubs
1Pete Crow-Armstrong	76/162 · 47%	4/12 · 33%	0/1
2Alex Bregman	62/155 · 40%	2/8	0/1
3Michael Busch	59/160 · 37%	4/12 · 33%	0/1
4Seiya Suzuki	65/143 · 45%	5/11 · 45%	0/1
5Ian Happ	54/155 · 35%	6/12 · 50%	0/1
6Nico Hoerner	55/159 · 35%	3/12 · 25%	1/1
7Pedro Ramirez	25/78 · 32%	2/9	0/1
8Carson Kelly	38/116 · 33%	2/9	0/1
9Dansby Swanson	37/124 · 30%	1/7	0/1
Padres
1Fernando Tatis Jr.	74/159 · 47%	8/12 · 67%	1/1
2Samad Taylor	15/47 · 32%	5/11 · 45%	0/1
3Manny Machado	56/158 · 35%	4/13 · 31%	1/1
4Ty France	53/128 · 41%	6/13 · 46%	1/1
5Jackson Merrill	69/157 · 44%	7/12 · 58%	1/1
6Austin Hays	10/38 · 26%	2/7	0/1
7Xander Bogaerts	44/153 · 29%	4/11 · 36%	1/1
8Jake Cronenworth	34/108 · 31%	6/13 · 46%	0/1
9Luis Campusano	20/71 · 28%	2/7	0/1

3+ TB — games that cleared it
Player	Season	L14	Post
Cubs
1Pete Crow-Armstrong	51/162 · 31%	4/12 · 33%	0/1
2Alex Bregman	34/155 · 22%	2/8	0/1
3Michael Busch	38/160 · 24%	1/12 · 8%	0/1
4Seiya Suzuki	42/143 · 29%	3/11 · 27%	0/1
5Ian Happ	35/155 · 23%	3/12 · 25%	0/1
6Nico Hoerner	26/159 · 16%	1/12 · 8%	0/1
7Pedro Ramirez	16/78 · 21%	1/9	0/1
8Carson Kelly	17/116 · 15%	0/9	0/1
9Dansby Swanson	23/124 · 19%	1/7	0/1
Padres
1Fernando Tatis Jr.	42/159 · 26%	6/12 · 50%	1/1
2Samad Taylor	10/47 · 21%	3/11 · 27%	0/1
3Manny Machado	38/158 · 24%	3/13 · 23%	1/1
4Ty France	36/128 · 28%	4/13 · 31%	0/1
5Jackson Merrill	45/157 · 29%	4/12 · 33%	0/1
6Austin Hays	4/38 · 11%	1/7	0/1
7Xander Bogaerts	23/153 · 15%	3/11 · 27%	1/1
8Jake Cronenworth	15/108 · 14%	3/13 · 23%	0/1
9Luis Campusano	12/71 · 17%	1/7	0/1

4+ TB — games that cleared it
Player	Season	L14	Post
Cubs
1Pete Crow-Armstrong	40/162 · 25%	3/12 · 25%	0/1
2Alex Bregman	27/155 · 17%	2/8	0/1
3Michael Busch	27/160 · 17%	1/12 · 8%	0/1
4Seiya Suzuki	31/143 · 22%	2/11 · 18%	0/1
5Ian Happ	26/155 · 17%	1/12 · 8%	0/1
6Nico Hoerner	15/159 · 9%	0/12 · 0%	0/1
7Pedro Ramirez	9/78 · 12%	0/9	0/1
8Carson Kelly	12/116 · 10%	0/9	0/1
9Dansby Swanson	16/124 · 13%	1/7	0/1
Padres
1Fernando Tatis Jr.	32/159 · 20%	5/12 · 42%	1/1
2Samad Taylor	4/47 · 9%	2/11 · 18%	0/1
3Manny Machado	32/158 · 20%	3/13 · 23%	1/1
4Ty France	26/128 · 20%	4/13 · 31%	0/1
5Jackson Merrill	31/157 · 20%	1/12 · 8%	0/1
6Austin Hays	3/38 · 8%	1/7	0/1
7Xander Bogaerts	15/153 · 10%	2/11 · 18%	1/1
8Jake Cronenworth	8/108 · 7%	2/13 · 15%	0/1
9Luis Campusano	9/71 · 13%	1/7	0/1

1+ K — games that cleared it
Player	Season	L14	Post
Cubs
1Pete Crow-Armstrong	115/162 · 71%	9/12 · 75%	1/1
2Alex Bregman	78/155 · 50%	3/8	1/1
3Michael Busch	112/160 · 70%	9/12 · 75%	1/1
4Seiya Suzuki	105/143 · 73%	11/11 · 100%	0/1
5Ian Happ	117/155 · 75%	5/12 · 42%	0/1
6Nico Hoerner	51/159 · 32%	2/12 · 17%	0/1
7Pedro Ramirez	38/78 · 49%	6/9	1/1
8Carson Kelly	52/116 · 45%	2/9	1/1
9Dansby Swanson	81/124 · 65%	5/7	1/1
Padres
1Fernando Tatis Jr.	91/159 · 57%	9/12 · 75%	1/1
2Samad Taylor	31/47 · 66%	5/11 · 45%	1/1
3Manny Machado	103/158 · 65%	8/13 · 62%	0/1
4Ty France	73/128 · 57%	8/13 · 62%	0/1
5Jackson Merrill	103/157 · 66%	9/12 · 75%	1/1
6Austin Hays	18/38 · 47%	2/7	1/1
7Xander Bogaerts	82/153 · 54%	5/11 · 45%	1/1
8Jake Cronenworth	74/108 · 69%	10/13 · 77%	1/1
9Luis Campusano	36/71 · 51%	4/7	0/1

2+ K — games that cleared it
Player	Season	L14	Post
Cubs
1Pete Crow-Armstrong	56/162 · 35%	1/12 · 8%	1/1
2Alex Bregman	20/155 · 13%	0/8	1/1
3Michael Busch	44/160 · 28%	4/12 · 33%	0/1
4Seiya Suzuki	36/143 · 25%	4/11 · 36%	0/1
5Ian Happ	58/155 · 37%	3/12 · 25%	0/1
6Nico Hoerner	7/159 · 4%	0/12 · 0%	0/1
7Pedro Ramirez	10/78 · 13%	2/9	0/1
8Carson Kelly	15/116 · 13%	1/9	0/1
9Dansby Swanson	30/124 · 24%	2/7	0/1
Padres
1Fernando Tatis Jr.	29/159 · 18%	2/12 · 17%	0/1
2Samad Taylor	10/47 · 21%	1/11 · 9%	0/1
3Manny Machado	36/158 · 23%	4/13 · 31%	0/1
4Ty France	28/128 · 22%	4/13 · 31%	0/1
5Jackson Merrill	43/157 · 27%	5/12 · 42%	0/1
6Austin Hays	7/38 · 18%	0/7	1/1
7Xander Bogaerts	21/153 · 14%	3/11 · 27%	0/1
8Jake Cronenworth	20/108 · 19%	2/13 · 15%	0/1
9Luis Campusano	15/71 · 21%	2/7	0/1

4+ K — starts that cleared it
Starter	Season	Last 6 recorded	Post

3 or fewer — starts that cleared it
Starter	Season	Last 6 recorded	Post

1 or fewer — starts that cleared it
Starter	Season	Last 6 recorded	Post

regular season ends · 2 playoff game · strips run oldest → newest · tap a hitter for L28, the opponent, the series and the matchup. Built from the play-by-play feed, which does not pick up official scoring changes, so a season total can differ from MLB’s by a hit. Evidence, not picks: no odds are read and nothing here is scored.

Game Analysis

Context and interpretation

Team Identity

Chicago Cubs

Season-to-date, 162 games, 6,618 PA.

A patient, power-hitting offense that works counts and draws walks. The bats have been heating up lately.

Power

Elite90

Contact

Above Avg72

Plate Discipline

Elite96

Speed

Above Avg77

RISP

Below Avg43

Recent Form

Trending Up

Hit rate is up 6% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

San Diego Padres

Season-to-date, 162 games, 6,325 PA.

An aggressive, opportunistic offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The bats have been heating up lately.

Power

Below Avg37

Contact

Average49

Plate Discipline

Average55

Speed

Above Avg82

RISP

Above Avg67

Recent Form

Trending Up

Hit rate is up 20% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Padres bring the more aggressive profile, while Cubs lean on being patient.

Swing Factor

Cubs sit in the 90th percentile for extra-base production, Padres in the 37th.

Momentum

Cubs are trending up and Padres are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Which bullpen is under more pressure?

Cubs relievers ~174 pitches; Padres relievers ~97 pitches (Sep 27–29).

Edge · PadresCubs: ~174 relief pitchesPadres: ~97 relief pitchesModerate confidence

Through Sep 29, the feed's last day. Relief pitches are reconstructed from play-by-play.

Expected Game Shape

UncertainLow confidence

Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Cubs bring more power.

At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
Cubs are trending up; Padres are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Does Cubs' power tilt the game?

Cubs bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.

Cubs power pct 90 vs Padres 37

Is Xander Bogaerts the one to watch?

Xander Bogaerts enters as Padres' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 149% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games.

0.333 hit rate · 0.667 TB/PA · 0.185 hit rate · 0.267 TB/PA

Can Manny Machado snap out of it?

Manny Machado has cooled off. On-base rate is down 41% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 24%.

0.130 hit rate · 0.261 TB/PA · 0.183 hit rate · 0.340 TB/PA

Based on plate appearances before 2026-10-01, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.