← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · October 10, 2026
AL Division Series · Game 5 of 5Series tied 2-2 · Winner takes the series
Chicago White Sox
No. 6 seed · 84-78 in the regular season
Regular-season form: bats heating up
RHP Sean Burke · High-strikeout arm
@
Cleveland Guardians
No. 2 seed · 85-77 in the regular season
Regular-season form: bats heating up
RHP Gavin Williams · Elite strikeout stuff
MLB · Progressive Field · 5:00 PM PT

Playoff Prop Desk

Evidence for player and pitcher decisions

Data through Oct 8 · regular season ended Sep 27

Lineup spot leads because it sets plate appearances, which predict a hit more than twice as well as recent hitting does.

Total bases rides on the same chances as a hit, plus extra-base power. We do not model it; these are records.

The opposing starter carries batter strikeouts more than the batter's own form, so his strikeout rate sits beside every row.

Workload leads: a postseason hook can cut a starter's batters faced, and strikeouts need batters.

Records only. When this market was measured, recent hits allowed carried no information beyond its base rate.

Records only — the site has no walks model.

Sean BurkeRHP · White Sox vs Guardians
5.7 K / start5.7 K / start4.6 H allowed / start4.6 H allowed / start4.6 H allowed / start2 BB / start
~91 pitches · 22.4 BF · ~5.1 IP per start · 27 regular-season starts
Recent K43625786
Recent H72185441
Recent BB08423101
Pitches ~98921044897897283
BF2517221426211618

Last 6 recorded starts · playoff after the rule

Guardians confirmed lineup vs RHP: K 17% 562/3220hits 22% 724/3220BB 9% 299/3220 per PA

Start by start
AvgAug 21Aug 26Sep 1Sep 8Sep 19Sep 25Sep 30Oct 5relief
Pitches ~~90.698921044897897283
Batters faced22.42517221426211618
Innings ~~5.16.03.05.21.16.05.14.05.1
Strikeouts5.743625786
Hits allowed4.672185441
Walks208423101

vs Cleveland Guardians this season: Jun 23: 6.1 IP, 6 K, 6 H, 1 BB; Jul 4: 6.0 IP, 11 K, 7 H, 0 BB

Gavin WilliamsRHP · Guardians vs White Sox
7.8 K / start7.8 K / start4.5 H allowed / start4.5 H allowed / start4.5 H allowed / start1.9 BB / start
~94 pitches · 23.3 BF · ~5.2 IP per start · 32 regular-season starts
Recent K31311794111
Recent H62443541
Recent BB11331430
Pitches ~62979911389749818
BF112524242318214

Last 6 recorded starts · playoff after the rule

White Sox confirmed lineup vs RHP: K 25% 817/3299hits 21% 694/3299BB 10% 330/3299 per PA

Start by start
AvgAug 25Sep 1Sep 6Sep 14Sep 20Sep 25Oct 5Oct 8relief
Pitches ~~93.562979911389749818
Batters faced23.3112524242318214
Innings ~~5.21.17.06.05.07.03.15.01.0
Strikeouts7.831311794111
Hits allowed4.562443541
Walks1.911331430

vs Chicago White Sox this season: Jun 22: 5.0 IP, 8 K, 5 H, 1 BB; Jul 3: 4.2 IP, 6 K, 5 H, 2 BB; Aug 8: 5.2 IP, 7 K, 3 H, 2 BB; Sep 14: 5.0 IP, 7 K, 4 H, 3 BB

White Sox✓ Confirmed lineupvs RHP Gavin WilliamsGames with 1+ hitGames with 2+ total basesGames with 1+ strikeoutStrikeouts per PAWalks per PA
1Sam AntonacciLHB vs RHPSeason85/139L148/11Post4/6Season51/139L145/11Post1/6Season68/139L142/11Post3/6Season15% 82/557vs RHP13% 58/443Season8% 43/557K% vs RHP13% 58/4432312110011231312001100100101101000100010

Bats 1st · 4.28 PA per start this season · league average from the 1st spot: 4.49

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it139132-for-48085/139 · 61%38/139 · 27%18951/139 · 37%29/139 · 21%13/139 · 9%378215% 82/55768/139 · 49%14/139 · 10%438% 43/557
L28Aug 31–Sep 272426-for-8217/24 · 71%7/24 · 29%338/24 · 33%5/24 · 21%1/24 · 4%6910% 9/949/24 · 38%0/24 · 0%66% 6/94
L14Sep 14–271114-for-378/11 · 73%5/11 · 45%165/11 · 45%3/11 · 27%0/11 · 0%225% 2/412/11 · 18%0/11 · 0%12% 1/41
Postseasonthis October64-for-164/60/651/60/60/61313% 3/233/60/629% 2/23
This seriesvs Cleveland Guardians42-for-92/40/420/40/40/40214% 2/142/40/417% 1/14
vs Cleveland Guardiansregular season138-for-415/13 · 38%3/13 · 23%93/13 · 23%1/13 · 8%0/13 · 0%1613% 6/466/13 · 46%0/13 · 0%49% 4/46

vs Gavin Williams: 2-for-15, 3 K, 1 BB in 16 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

2Kyle TeelLHB vs RHPSeason19/39L146/11Post4/6Season11/39L143/11Post2/6Season31/39L148/11Post5/6Season35% 51/144vs RHP35% 37/105Season13% 19/144K% vs RHP35% 37/1051212120110151212012020020322221100001001

Bats 2nd · 4.19 PA per start this season · league average from the 2nd spot: 4.4

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it3925-for-11919/39 · 49%6/39 · 15%4311/39 · 28%5/39 · 13%5/39 · 13%85135% 51/14431/39 · 79%16/39 · 41%1913% 19/144
L28Aug 31–Sep 272013-for-569/20 · 45%4/20 · 20%236/20 · 30%3/20 · 15%3/20 · 15%42432% 24/7415/20 · 75%8/20 · 40%1318% 13/74
L14Sep 14–27118-for-346/11 · 55%2/11 · 18%123/11 · 27%1/11 · 9%1/11 · 9%21532% 15/478/11 · 73%6/11 · 55%817% 8/47
Postseasonthis October65-for-254/61/662/60/60/611141% 11/275/65/627% 2/27
This seriesvs Cleveland Guardians42-for-152/40/431/40/40/41847% 8/174/44/4212% 2/17
vs Cleveland Guardiansregular season95-for-295/90/9103/91/91/931439% 14/367/95/9617% 6/36

vs Gavin Williams: 1-for-10, 7 K, 1 BB in 11 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

3Miguel VargasRHB vs RHPSeason107/159L149/12Post4/6Season61/159L144/12Post1/6Season93/159L146/12Post3/6Season18% 126/704vs RHP18% 91/496Season14% 101/704K% vs RHP18% 91/4961200001111120000111403101200200103102213

Bats 3rd · 4.48 PA per start this season · league average from the 3rd spot: 4.3

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it159147-for-588107/159 · 67%33/159 · 21%27961/159 · 38%37/159 · 23%33/159 · 21%6512618% 126/70493/159 · 58%28/159 · 18%10114% 101/704
L28Aug 31–Sep 272524-for-9418/25 · 72%6/25 · 24%378/25 · 32%4/25 · 16%4/25 · 16%52219% 22/11316/25 · 64%4/25 · 16%1715% 17/113
L14Sep 14–271212-for-419/12 · 75%3/12 · 25%224/12 · 33%3/12 · 25%3/12 · 25%4814% 8/566/12 · 50%1/12 · 8%1323% 13/56
Postseasonthis October64-for-194/60/671/61/61/61518% 5/283/62/6932% 9/28
This seriesvs Cleveland Guardians44-for-104/40/471/41/41/41211% 2/181/41/4844% 8/18
vs Cleveland Guardiansregular season1314-for-4611/13 · 85%3/13 · 23%267/13 · 54%3/13 · 23%3/13 · 23%61017% 10/598/13 · 62%2/13 · 15%1119% 11/59

vs Gavin Williams: 6-for-12, 1 XBH, 2 K, 3 BB in 15 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

4Munetaka MurakamiLHB vs RHPSeason74/127L147/13Post4/6Season49/127L145/13Post1/6Season109/127L1412/13Post6/6Season35% 196/553vs RHP36% 137/384Season17% 92/553K% vs RHP36% 137/3841301102101190210510121212321311000100002

Bats 4th · 4.49 PA per start this season · league average from the 4th spot: 4.18

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it12794-for-45474/127 · 58%14/127 · 11%21749/127 · 39%33/127 · 26%32/127 · 25%5219635% 196/553109/127 · 86%60/127 · 47%9217% 92/553
L28Aug 31–Sep 272615-for-9212/26 · 46%2/26 · 8%377/26 · 27%5/26 · 19%5/26 · 19%94742% 47/11124/26 · 92%15/26 · 58%1514% 15/111
L14Sep 14–271310-for-467/13 · 54%2/13 · 15%265/13 · 38%3/13 · 23%3/13 · 23%72239% 22/5712/13 · 92%7/13 · 54%814% 8/57
Postseasonthis October65-for-234/61/681/61/61/611244% 12/276/64/6311% 3/27
This seriesvs Cleveland Guardians44-for-153/41/471/41/41/41741% 7/174/42/4212% 2/17
vs Cleveland Guardiansregular season63-for-193/60/6103/62/62/631248% 12/255/64/6520% 5/25

vs Gavin Williams: 2-for-7, 1 XBH, 4 K in 8 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

5Andrew BenintendiLHB vs RHPSeason74/141L143/9Post1/4Season40/141L142/9Post0/4Season81/141L145/9Post3/4Season24% 112/468vs RHP22% 94/420Season8% 39/468K% vs RHP22% 94/4200100010100010004010011023010210002011100

Bats 5th · 3.66 PA per start this season · league average from the 5th spot: 4.04

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it141102-for-42174/141 · 52%21/141 · 15%17540/141 · 28%26/141 · 18%21/141 · 15%4111224% 112/46881/141 · 57%25/141 · 18%398% 39/468
L28Aug 31–Sep 272210-for-567/22 · 32%2/22 · 9%164/22 · 18%3/22 · 14%2/22 · 9%41829% 18/6312/22 · 55%4/22 · 18%610% 6/63
L14Sep 14–2795-for-233/91/982/92/91/911037% 10/275/93/9311% 3/27
Postseasonthis October41-for-61/40/410/40/40/40450% 4/83/41/4225% 2/8
This seriesvs Cleveland Guardians20-for-30/20/200/20/20/203100% 3/32/21/200% 0/3
vs Cleveland Guardiansregular season87-for-255/81/871/81/80/80414% 4/283/81/827% 2/28

vs Gavin Williams: 4-for-11, 5 K, 1 BB in 12 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

6Tristan PetersLHB vs RHPSeason78/149L142/10Post5/6Season49/149L140/10Post1/6Season74/149L147/10Post5/6Season18% 90/491vs RHP18% 77/424Season8% 37/491K% vs RHP18% 77/4241010111011101011102110101101310000010000

Bats 6th · 3.56 PA per start this season · league average from the 6th spot: 3.88

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it149116-for-42878/149 · 52%29/149 · 19%19149/149 · 33%28/149 · 19%17/149 · 11%479018% 90/49174/149 · 50%14/149 · 9%378% 37/491
L28Aug 31–Sep 272313-for-689/23 · 39%3/23 · 13%195/23 · 22%2/23 · 9%2/23 · 9%51620% 16/8014/23 · 61%2/23 · 9%56% 5/80
L14Sep 14–27102-for-272/10 · 20%0/10 · 0%20/10 · 0%0/10 · 0%0/10 · 0%0824% 8/347/10 · 70%1/10 · 10%39% 3/34
Postseasonthis October65-for-185/60/661/60/60/61735% 7/205/61/615% 1/20
This seriesvs Cleveland Guardians43-for-113/40/441/40/40/41545% 5/113/41/400% 0/11
vs Cleveland Guardiansregular season108-for-306/10 · 60%2/10 · 20%155/10 · 50%2/10 · 20%1/10 · 10%5616% 6/384/10 · 40%2/10 · 20%411% 4/38

vs Gavin Williams: 1-for-9, 3 K, 2 BB in 11 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

7Chase MeidrothRHB vs RHPSeason105/154L149/11Post5/6Season66/154L147/11Post5/6Season97/154L146/11Post3/6Season22% 141/643vs RHP24% 110/460Season9% 61/643K% vs RHP24% 110/4603221220211623225022201100021201000010001

Bats 7th · 4.23 PA per start this season · league average from the 7th spot: 3.74

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it154156-for-564105/154 · 68%42/154 · 27%23566/154 · 43%32/154 · 21%18/154 · 12%4714122% 141/64397/154 · 63%36/154 · 23%619% 61/643
L28Aug 31–Sep 272425-for-8215/24 · 62%8/24 · 33%4210/24 · 42%7/24 · 29%4/24 · 17%91920% 19/9515/24 · 62%4/24 · 17%1011% 10/95
L14Sep 14–271116-for-419/11 · 82%5/11 · 45%267/11 · 64%5/11 · 45%3/11 · 27%6716% 7/446/11 · 55%1/11 · 9%25% 2/44
Postseasonthis October68-for-235/63/6135/61/61/63520% 5/253/62/628% 2/25
This seriesvs Cleveland Guardians44-for-163/41/463/40/40/42529% 5/173/42/416% 1/17
vs Cleveland Guardiansregular season1213-for-5110/12 · 83%2/12 · 17%194/12 · 33%3/12 · 25%2/12 · 17%41019% 10/526/12 · 50%3/12 · 25%12% 1/52

vs Gavin Williams: 3-for-10, 2 K in 10 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

8Colson MontgomeryLHB vs RHPSeason79/153L142/12Post3/6Season55/153L141/12Post3/6Season126/153L1411/12Post5/6Season36% 227/638vs RHP38% 168/441Season8% 54/638K% vs RHP38% 168/4410000102002000040300211121202310000010100

Bats 8th · 4.22 PA per start this season · league average from the 8th spot: 3.54

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it153112-for-56879/153 · 52%29/153 · 19%22955/153 · 36%39/153 · 25%31/153 · 20%5522736% 227/638126/153 · 82%71/153 · 46%548% 54/638
L28Aug 31–Sep 272510-for-847/25 · 28%3/25 · 12%236/25 · 24%5/25 · 20%3/25 · 12%74344% 43/9823/25 · 92%12/25 · 48%1010% 10/98
L14Sep 14–27123-for-392/12 · 17%1/12 · 8%41/12 · 8%1/12 · 8%0/12 · 0%12149% 21/4311/12 · 92%6/12 · 50%25% 2/43
Postseasonthis October65-for-193/62/693/62/61/62939% 9/235/63/629% 2/23
This seriesvs Cleveland Guardians44-for-132/42/452/41/40/41640% 6/153/42/417% 1/15
vs Cleveland Guardiansregular season139-for-477/13 · 54%2/13 · 15%204/13 · 31%3/13 · 23%3/13 · 23%52243% 22/5111/13 · 85%6/13 · 46%12% 1/51

vs Gavin Williams: 0-for-9, 9 K, 1 BB in 11 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

9Brenton DoyleRHB vs RHPSeason38/73L149/10Post2/4Season17/73L146/10Post0/4Season53/73L149/10Post2/4Season33% 73/223vs RHP36% 45/126Season5% 12/223K% vs RHP36% 45/1261120111001115044100111110101010000000000

Bats 9th · 3.58 PA per start this season · league average from the 9th spot: 3.23

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it7349-for-21038/73 · 52%11/73 · 15%7617/73 · 23%11/73 · 15%7/73 · 10%147333% 73/22353/73 · 73%18/73 · 25%125% 12/223
L28Aug 31–Sep 271513-for-4310/15 · 67%3/15 · 20%256/15 · 40%4/15 · 27%4/15 · 27%51740% 17/4314/15 · 93%3/15 · 20%00% 0/43
L14Sep 14–271012-for-359/10 · 90%3/10 · 30%246/10 · 60%4/10 · 40%4/10 · 40%51131% 11/359/10 · 90%2/10 · 20%00% 0/35
Postseasonthis October42-for-92/40/420/40/40/40220% 2/102/40/400% 0/10
This seriesvs Cleveland Guardians31-for-81/30/310/30/30/30222% 2/92/30/300% 0/9
vs Cleveland Guardiansregular season45-for-163/42/482/42/41/42425% 4/163/41/400% 0/16

vs Gavin Williams: No meetings this season — raw counts; too few to mean much

Guardians✓ Confirmed lineupvs RHP Sean BurkeGames with 1+ hitGames with 2+ total basesGames with 1+ strikeoutStrikeouts per PAWalks per PA
1Steven KwanLHB vs RHPSeason97/150L147/11Post3/4Season54/150L144/11Post0/4Season51/150L142/11Post1/4Season10% 62/637vs RHP8% 36/432Season13% 85/637K% vs RHP8% 36/4323120030111312005011102000000100101211002

Bats 1st · 4.31 PA per start this season · league average from the 1st spot: 4.49

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it150151-for-53897/150 · 65%42/150 · 28%18754/150 · 36%20/150 · 13%8/150 · 5%276210% 62/63751/150 · 34%11/150 · 7%8513% 85/637
L28Aug 31–Sep 272429-for-9217/24 · 71%9/24 · 38%3810/24 · 42%4/24 · 17%3/24 · 12%698% 9/1077/24 · 29%2/24 · 8%1413% 14/107
L14Sep 14–271113-for-397/11 · 64%4/11 · 36%154/11 · 36%2/11 · 18%1/11 · 9%136% 3/502/11 · 18%1/11 · 9%1020% 10/50
Postseasonthis October43-for-163/40/430/40/40/4015% 1/191/40/4316% 3/19
This seriesvs Chicago White Sox43-for-163/40/430/40/40/4015% 1/191/40/4316% 3/19
vs Chicago White Soxregular season1315-for-4211/13 · 85%3/13 · 23%215/13 · 38%2/13 · 15%1/13 · 8%3714% 7/515/13 · 38%2/13 · 15%816% 8/51

vs Sean Burke: 2-for-8, 2 XBH, 1 K, 1 BB in 9 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

2José RamírezSwitch vs RHPSeason77/124L148/11Post2/4Season44/124L145/11Post2/4Season55/124L144/11Post2/4Season13% 69/544vs RHP15% 57/380Season11% 60/544K% vs RHP15% 57/3802102100022310210005501010012000010101110

Bats 2nd · 4.42 PA per start this season · league average from the 2nd spot: 4.4

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it124111-for-47377/124 · 62%28/124 · 23%17444/124 · 35%19/124 · 15%16/124 · 13%396913% 69/54455/124 · 44%13/124 · 10%6011% 60/544
L28Aug 31–Sep 272218-for-9113/22 · 59%5/22 · 23%245/22 · 23%3/22 · 14%2/22 · 9%41010% 10/979/22 · 41%1/22 · 5%44% 4/97
L14Sep 14–271113-for-468/11 · 73%5/11 · 45%195/11 · 45%3/11 · 27%2/11 · 18%448% 4/504/11 · 36%0/11 · 0%36% 3/50
Postseasonthis October44-for-152/42/4102/42/42/43317% 3/182/41/4317% 3/18
This seriesvs Chicago White Sox44-for-152/42/4102/42/42/43317% 3/182/41/4317% 3/18
vs Chicago White Soxregular season66-for-204/62/682/61/61/6214% 1/231/60/629% 2/23

vs Sean Burke: 0-for-4, 3 K in 4 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

3Chase DeLauterLHB vs RHPSeason87/133L146/9Post3/4Season60/133L144/9Post1/4Season64/133L144/9Post0/4Season15% 82/559vs RHP12% 46/380Season11% 60/559K% vs RHP12% 46/3801200110211130024021100131000001000210011

Bats 3rd · 4.36 PA per start this season · league average from the 3rd spot: 4.3

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it133142-for-49587/133 · 65%42/133 · 32%22660/133 · 45%33/133 · 25%22/133 · 17%498215% 82/55964/133 · 48%15/133 · 11%6011% 60/559
L28Aug 31–Sep 271817-for-6811/18 · 61%5/18 · 28%328/18 · 44%6/18 · 33%5/18 · 28%91114% 11/798/18 · 44%2/18 · 11%1013% 10/79
L14Sep 14–2798-for-346/92/9164/93/92/94615% 6/414/91/9615% 6/41
Postseasonthis October44-for-163/41/441/40/40/4000% 0/180/40/4211% 2/18
This seriesvs Chicago White Sox44-for-163/41/441/40/40/4000% 0/180/40/4211% 2/18
vs Chicago White Soxregular season87-for-345/82/8102/81/81/81719% 7/375/81/838% 3/37

vs Sean Burke: 2-for-6, 2 K, 1 BB in 7 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

4Jo AdellRHB vs RHPSeason95/159L1410/12Post3/4Season54/159L144/12Post2/4Season108/159L147/12Post4/4Season24% 157/660vs RHP25% 115/469Season5% 34/660K% vs RHP25% 115/4691001120121100215034111100042111102010111

Bats 4th · 4.22 PA per start this season · league average from the 4th spot: 4.18

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it159145-for-60395/159 · 60%39/159 · 25%24254/159 · 34%38/159 · 24%26/159 · 16%5015724% 157/660108/159 · 68%40/159 · 25%345% 34/660
L28Aug 31–Sep 272523-for-9518/25 · 72%5/25 · 20%367/25 · 28%5/25 · 20%3/25 · 12%72322% 23/10615/25 · 60%6/25 · 24%88% 8/106
L14Sep 14–271212-for-4610/12 · 83%2/12 · 17%194/12 · 33%2/12 · 17%2/12 · 17%3917% 9/527/12 · 58%2/12 · 17%612% 6/52
Postseasonthis October44-for-153/41/482/42/41/42844% 8/184/42/4317% 3/18
This seriesvs Chicago White Sox44-for-153/41/482/42/41/42844% 8/184/42/4317% 3/18
vs Chicago White Soxregular season128-for-448/12 · 67%0/12 · 0%122/12 · 17%1/12 · 8%1/12 · 8%21531% 15/499/12 · 75%4/12 · 33%24% 2/49

vs Sean Burke: 1-for-5, 3 K in 5 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

5Nathaniel LoweLHB vs RHPSeason68/123L144/9Post2/4Season43/123L141/9Post2/4Season75/123L143/9Post2/4Season23% 99/429vs RHP23% 89/380Season9% 38/429K% vs RHP23% 89/3800000111002000011200200100011000001001031

Bats 5th · 3.87 PA per start this season · league average from the 5th spot: 4.04

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it12396-for-38168/123 · 55%25/123 · 20%16943/123 · 35%26/123 · 21%18/123 · 15%399923% 99/42975/123 · 61%22/123 · 18%389% 38/429
L28Aug 31–Sep 272112-for-5710/21 · 48%2/21 · 10%195/21 · 24%2/21 · 10%2/21 · 10%31319% 13/6911/21 · 52%2/21 · 10%69% 6/69
L14Sep 14–2795-for-224/91/951/90/90/90311% 3/273/90/914% 1/27
Postseasonthis October43-for-122/41/442/40/40/41212% 2/172/40/4529% 5/17
This seriesvs Chicago White Sox43-for-122/41/442/40/40/41212% 2/172/40/4529% 5/17
vs Chicago White Soxregular season32-for-81/31/321/30/30/30222% 2/92/30/300% 0/9

vs Sean Burke: 0-for-4, 2 K in 4 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

6Travis BazzanaLHB vs RHPSeason72/124L146/12Post2/4Season46/124L145/12Post2/4Season72/124L147/12Post2/4Season21% 107/517vs RHP19% 66/352Season11% 56/517K% vs RHP19% 66/3521001301001100260200232111011000100000120

Bats 6th · 4.21 PA per start this season · league average from the 6th spot: 3.88

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it124110-for-44872/124 · 58%29/124 · 23%18346/124 · 37%24/124 · 19%17/124 · 14%4010721% 107/51772/124 · 58%28/124 · 23%5611% 56/517
L28Aug 31–Sep 272321-for-7513/23 · 57%7/23 · 30%4611/23 · 48%8/23 · 35%6/23 · 26%121416% 14/8510/23 · 43%3/23 · 13%89% 8/85
L14Sep 14–27129-for-446/12 · 50%2/12 · 17%235/12 · 42%3/12 · 25%3/12 · 25%71022% 10/467/12 · 58%2/12 · 17%24% 2/46
Postseasonthis October42-for-132/40/442/40/40/42212% 2/162/40/4319% 3/16
This seriesvs Chicago White Sox42-for-132/40/442/40/40/42212% 2/162/40/4319% 3/16
vs Chicago White Soxregular season1210-for-477/12 · 58%3/12 · 25%195/12 · 42%2/12 · 17%1/12 · 8%51121% 11/527/12 · 58%3/12 · 25%510% 5/52

vs Sean Burke: 1-for-10, 1 XBH, 4 K, 1 BB in 11 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

7Patrick BaileySwitch vs RHPSeason49/104L144/9Post3/4Season24/104L141/9Post2/4Season63/104L146/9Post2/4Season27% 92/345vs RHP26% 75/287Season8% 28/345K% vs RHP26% 75/2870100201022010080102531002201100001000010

Bats 7th · 3.54 PA per start this season · league average from the 7th spot: 3.74

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it10464-for-30949/104 · 47%12/104 · 12%10424/104 · 23%13/104 · 12%9/104 · 9%199227% 92/34563/104 · 61%24/104 · 23%288% 28/345
L28Aug 31–Sep 271813-for-5410/18 · 56%3/18 · 17%235/18 · 28%2/18 · 11%2/18 · 11%42136% 21/5913/18 · 72%6/18 · 33%35% 3/59
L14Sep 14–2795-for-274/91/9111/91/91/921345% 13/296/95/927% 2/29
Postseasonthis October45-for-123/42/482/41/41/41215% 2/132/40/418% 1/13
This seriesvs Chicago White Sox45-for-123/42/482/41/41/41215% 2/132/40/418% 1/13
vs Chicago White Soxregular season85-for-234/81/861/81/80/81519% 5/274/81/8415% 4/27

vs Sean Burke: 1-for-4, 1 K in 4 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

8Petey HalpinLHB vs RHPSeason32/67L145/8Post0/2Season11/67L141/8Post0/2Season29/67L142/8Post1/2Season18% 35/195vs RHP17% 25/147Season5% 9/195K% vs RHP17% 25/1470211100100051110010000101000010000011010

Bats 8th · 3.52 PA per start this season · league average from the 8th spot: 3.54

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it6740-for-17732/67 · 48%7/67 · 10%5811/67 · 16%5/67 · 7%3/67 · 4%93518% 35/19529/67 · 43%4/67 · 6%95% 9/195
L28Aug 31–Sep 27138-for-326/13 · 46%2/13 · 15%112/13 · 15%1/13 · 8%1/13 · 8%1411% 4/364/13 · 31%0/13 · 0%38% 3/36
L14Sep 14–2786-for-205/81/891/81/81/8129% 2/222/80/829% 2/22
Postseasonthis October20-for-10/20/200/20/20/20150% 1/21/20/2150% 1/2
This seriesvs Chicago White Sox20-for-10/20/200/20/20/20150% 1/21/20/2150% 1/2
vs Chicago White Soxregular season54-for-153/51/571/51/51/51319% 3/161/51/500% 0/16

vs Sean Burke: 1-for-1, 0 K in 2 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

9Brayan RocchioSwitch vs RHPSeason94/153L148/10Post1/4Season49/153L144/10Post1/4Season66/153L144/10Post1/4Season14% 85/592vs RHP13% 53/393Season6% 38/592K% vs RHP13% 53/39311101300202110110002001011010000000101002

Bats 9th · 3.89 PA per start this season · league average from the 9th spot: 3.23

GH-AB1+ H2+ HTB2+ TB3+ TB4+ TBXBHKK/PA1+ K2+ KBBBB/PA
Regular seasonall of it153135-for-53394/153 · 61%32/153 · 21%20949/153 · 32%31/153 · 20%17/153 · 11%428514% 85/59266/153 · 43%17/153 · 11%386% 38/592
L28Aug 31–Sep 272221-for-7315/22 · 68%5/22 · 23%429/22 · 41%5/22 · 23%3/22 · 14%111113% 11/8311/22 · 50%0/22 · 0%67% 6/83
L14Sep 14–271012-for-338/10 · 80%3/10 · 30%224/10 · 40%3/10 · 30%1/10 · 10%6411% 4/384/10 · 40%0/10 · 0%411% 4/38
Postseasonthis October42-for-111/41/421/40/40/4017% 1/151/40/4320% 3/15
This seriesvs Chicago White Sox42-for-111/41/421/40/40/4017% 1/151/40/4320% 3/15
vs Chicago White Soxregular season1314-for-4710/13 · 77%3/13 · 23%194/13 · 31%3/13 · 23%2/13 · 15%3918% 9/518/13 · 62%1/13 · 8%48% 4/51

vs Sean Burke: 3-for-10, 2 K in 10 PA — raw counts; too few to mean much

Thresholds

Games that cleared each mark. Counts first; a rate only from 10 games up. L14 is the last two weeks of the regular season.
1+ hit — games that cleared it
PlayerSeasonL14Post
White Sox
1Sam Antonacci85/139 · 61%8/11 · 73%4/6
2Kyle Teel19/39 · 49%6/11 · 55%4/6
3Miguel Vargas107/159 · 67%9/12 · 75%4/6
4Munetaka Murakami74/127 · 58%7/13 · 54%4/6
5Andrew Benintendi74/141 · 52%3/91/4
6Tristan Peters78/149 · 52%2/10 · 20%5/6
7Chase Meidroth105/154 · 68%9/11 · 82%5/6
8Colson Montgomery79/153 · 52%2/12 · 17%3/6
9Brenton Doyle38/73 · 52%9/10 · 90%2/4
Guardians
1Steven Kwan97/150 · 65%7/11 · 64%3/4
2José Ramírez77/124 · 62%8/11 · 73%2/4
3Chase DeLauter87/133 · 65%6/93/4
4Jo Adell95/159 · 60%10/12 · 83%3/4
5Nathaniel Lowe68/123 · 55%4/92/4
6Travis Bazzana72/124 · 58%6/12 · 50%2/4
7Patrick Bailey49/104 · 47%4/93/4
8Petey Halpin32/67 · 48%5/80/2
9Brayan Rocchio94/153 · 61%8/10 · 80%1/4
2+ TB — games that cleared it
PlayerSeasonL14Post
White Sox
1Sam Antonacci51/139 · 37%5/11 · 45%1/6
2Kyle Teel11/39 · 28%3/11 · 27%2/6
3Miguel Vargas61/159 · 38%4/12 · 33%1/6
4Munetaka Murakami49/127 · 39%5/13 · 38%1/6
5Andrew Benintendi40/141 · 28%2/90/4
6Tristan Peters49/149 · 33%0/10 · 0%1/6
7Chase Meidroth66/154 · 43%7/11 · 64%5/6
8Colson Montgomery55/153 · 36%1/12 · 8%3/6
9Brenton Doyle17/73 · 23%6/10 · 60%0/4
Guardians
1Steven Kwan54/150 · 36%4/11 · 36%0/4
2José Ramírez44/124 · 35%5/11 · 45%2/4
3Chase DeLauter60/133 · 45%4/91/4
4Jo Adell54/159 · 34%4/12 · 33%2/4
5Nathaniel Lowe43/123 · 35%1/92/4
6Travis Bazzana46/124 · 37%5/12 · 42%2/4
7Patrick Bailey24/104 · 23%1/92/4
8Petey Halpin11/67 · 16%1/80/2
9Brayan Rocchio49/153 · 32%4/10 · 40%1/4
1+ K — games that cleared it
PlayerSeasonL14Post
White Sox
1Sam Antonacci68/139 · 49%2/11 · 18%3/6
2Kyle Teel31/39 · 79%8/11 · 73%5/6
3Miguel Vargas93/159 · 58%6/12 · 50%3/6
4Munetaka Murakami109/127 · 86%12/13 · 92%6/6
5Andrew Benintendi81/141 · 57%5/93/4
6Tristan Peters74/149 · 50%7/10 · 70%5/6
7Chase Meidroth97/154 · 63%6/11 · 55%3/6
8Colson Montgomery126/153 · 82%11/12 · 92%5/6
9Brenton Doyle53/73 · 73%9/10 · 90%2/4
Guardians
1Steven Kwan51/150 · 34%2/11 · 18%1/4
2José Ramírez55/124 · 44%4/11 · 36%2/4
3Chase DeLauter64/133 · 48%4/90/4
4Jo Adell108/159 · 68%7/12 · 58%4/4
5Nathaniel Lowe75/123 · 61%3/92/4
6Travis Bazzana72/124 · 58%7/12 · 58%2/4
7Patrick Bailey63/104 · 61%6/92/4
8Petey Halpin29/67 · 43%2/81/2
9Brayan Rocchio66/153 · 43%4/10 · 40%1/4
4+ K — starts that cleared it
StarterSeasonLast 6 recordedPost
Sean Burke21/27 · 78%4/61/1
Gavin Williams31/32 · 97%5/61/1
3 or fewer — starts that cleared it
StarterSeasonLast 6 recordedPost
Sean Burke8/27 · 30%2/60/1
Gavin Williams12/32 · 38%2/60/1
1 or fewer — starts that cleared it
StarterSeasonLast 6 recordedPost
Sean Burke12/27 · 44%2/61/1
Gavin Williams15/32 · 47%3/60/1

regular season ends · 2 playoff game · strips run oldest → newest · tap a hitter for L28, the opponent, the series and the matchup. Built from the play-by-play feed, which does not pick up official scoring changes, so a season total can differ from MLB’s by a hit. Evidence, not picks: no odds are read and nothing here is scored.

Game Analysis

Context and interpretation

Team Identity

Chicago White Sox
Season-to-date, 162 games, 6,386 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Above Avg74
Contact
Below Avg26
Plate Discipline
Above Avg66
Speed
Below Avg34
RISP
Average54
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 10% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Cleveland Guardians
Season-to-date, 162 games, 6,352 PA.
An aggressive, patient offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be inconsistent with runners in scoring position. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Well Below12
Contact
Average46
Plate Discipline
Above Avg67
Speed
Elite87
RISP
Well Below9
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 25% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Guardians bring the more aggressive profile, while White Sox lean on being power-hitting.

Swing Factor

Gavin Williams strikes hitters out at a 31.9% clip (97th percentile); White Sox carry a 23.3% strikeout rate.

Momentum

White Sox are trending up and Guardians are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can either lineup run up a starter's pitch count?
White Sox' nine see 3.93 pitches per plate appearance against RHPs (league 3.89); Gavin Williams averages ~94 pitches and 23.3 batters a start. Guardians' nine see 3.96 pitches per plate appearance against RHPs (league 3.89); Sean Burke averages ~91 pitches and 22.4 batters a start.
Edge · EvenWhite Sox: 3.93 P/PAGuardians: 3.96 P/PALow confidence
Which lineup has the platoon advantage?
6 of 9 in the White Sox' confirmed lineup bat from the other side of Gavin Williams (RHP); 8 of 9 in the Guardians' confirmed lineup bat from the other side of Sean Burke (RHP). Switch hitters count.
Edge · GuardiansWhite Sox: 6/9Guardians: 8/9High confidence
Which bullpen is under more pressure?
White Sox relievers ~303 pitches, with Hudson, Davis on back-to-back days; Guardians relievers ~261 pitches, with Armstrong, Smith, Herrin, Gaddis on back-to-back days (Oct 6–8).
Edge · GuardiansWhite Sox: ~303 relief pitchesGuardians: ~261 relief pitchesModerate confidence
Through Oct 8, the feed's last day. Relief pitches are reconstructed from play-by-play.

Expected Game Shape

Starter-drivenModerate confidence

Runs may be at a premium if the starters hold form. White Sox bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.

Early edge White Sox Driver Pitching and command Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 68th percentile in combined suppression.
  • White Sox are trending up; Guardians are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Does White Sox's power tilt the game?
White Sox bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
White Sox power pct 74 vs Guardians 12
Can White Sox handle Gavin Williams's strikeout stuff?
White Sox have been a below-average contact team while Gavin Williams misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
White Sox contact percentile: 26
Can Tristan Peters snap out of it?
Tristan Peters has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 77% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games.
0.091 hit rate · 0.091 TB/PA · 0.237 hit rate · 0.394 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-10-10, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.