Sports Today Wednesday, September 16
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 16, 2026
Miami Marlins
75-77 · 3rd in NL East, 14 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Ryan Gusto · Pitches to contact
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
80-72 · 3rd in NL West, 12.5 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Merrill Kelly · Pitches to contact
MLB · Chase Field · 6:40 PM PT

Team Identity

Miami Marlins
Season-to-date, 151 games, 5,942 PA.
An aggressive, contact-oriented offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Below Avg29
Contact
Above Avg68
Plate Discipline
Average49
Speed
Above Avg78
RISP
Below Avg44
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 13% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Season-to-date, 151 games, 5,911 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Below Avg33
Contact
Average58
Plate Discipline
Average57
Speed
Above Avg67
RISP
Average52
Recent Form
Trending Up
Walk rate is up 9% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

D-backs' offense is defined by being aggressive, and this game tests whether Marlins can match it.

Swing Factor

Merrill Kelly strikes hitters out at a 14.9% clip (9th percentile); Marlins carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Marlins are trending up and D-backs are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Merrill Kelly miss enough bats?
Merrill Kelly strikes hitters out at a 14.9% clip (9th percentile); Marlins carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · MarlinsMerrill Kelly: 14.9% K rateMarlins: 21.0% K rateHigh confidence
Can Ryan Gusto miss enough bats?
Ryan Gusto strikes hitters out at a 18.2% clip (27th percentile); D-backs carry a 18.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · D-backsRyan Gusto: 18.2% K rateD-backs: 18.7% K rateHigh confidence
How do D-backs handle right-handers?
D-backs have produced worse against right-handers this season (0.327 vs. 0.340 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Ryan Gustovs right-handers: 0.327 TB/PA (4258 PA)overall: 0.340 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Merrill Kelly limit Marlins' power?
Marlins rank in the 29th percentile in extra-base production, while Merrill Kelly sits in the 17th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · MarlinsMarlins: 0.341 TB/PAMerrill Kelly: 0.396 TB/PA allowed (685 PA)High confidence
How do Marlins handle right-handers?
Marlins have produced better against right-handers this season (0.351 vs. 0.341 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Marlinsvs right-handers: 0.351 TB/PA (4302 PA)overall: 0.341 TB/PAModerate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Ryan Gusto
Ryan Gusto
Miami Marlins · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.8/start
Hits allowed5.2/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
18% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly
Arizona Diamondbacks · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.9/start
Hits allowed4.9/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
15% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Jakob Marsee
Jakob Marsee
Miami Marlins · 0.349 hit rate · 0.488 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 252-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 106% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
Graham Pauley
Graham Pauley
Miami Marlins · 0.238 hit rate · 0.524 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2511 / 253-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 97% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 5 games.
Nolan Arenado
Nolan Arenado
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.262 hit rate · 0.595 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 63% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
Ryan Waldschmidt
Ryan Waldschmidt
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.042 hit rate · 0.042 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 87% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 42%.
Esteury Ruiz
Esteury Ruiz
Miami Marlins · 0.111 hit rate · 0.167 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L259 / 25
On-base rate is down 67% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 44%.
Heriberto Hernandez
Heriberto Hernandez
Miami Marlins · 0.146 hit rate · 0.208 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2517 / 254-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games.

Players Positioned to Succeed

77
Javier Sanoja
Javier Sanoja
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
75
Jakob Marsee
Jakob Marsee
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
69
Gabriel Moreno
Gabriel Moreno
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted

Expected Game Shape

Contact-heavyModerate confidence

Offense likely comes from stringing hits together.

Early edge Marlins Driver Traffic and situational hitting Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 28th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Marlins are trending up; D-backs are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Can Ryan Waldschmidt snap out of it?
Ryan Waldschmidt has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 87% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 42%.
0.042 hit rate · 0.042 TB/PA · 0.232 hit rate · 0.330 TB/PA
Is Jakob Marsee the one to watch?
Jakob Marsee enters as Marlins' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 106% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
0.349 hit rate · 0.488 TB/PA · 0.170 hit rate · 0.266 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-16, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.