New York Yankees
89-65 · 2nd in AL East, 5 GB
Bats heating upRHP Will Warren · Balanced starter
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
81-74 · 3rd in NL West, 14 GB
Bats heating upCorbin Burnes
Team Identity
New York Yankees
Season-to-date, 154 games, 5,989 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg80
ContactWell Below14
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg72
SpeedAverage62
RISPBelow Avg33
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 14% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Season-to-date, 155 games, 6,074 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerBelow Avg38
ContactAverage55
Plate DisciplineAverage57
SpeedAbove Avg67
RISPBelow Avg44
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 13% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
D-backs bring the more aggressive profile, while Yankees lean on being power-hitting.
Swing Factor
D-backs rank in the 38th percentile in extra-base production, while Will Warren sits in the 20th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Yankees are trending up and D-backs are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Will Warren limit D-backs' power?
D-backs rank in the 38th percentile in extra-base production, while Will Warren sits in the 20th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · D-backsD-backs: 0.341 TB/PAWill Warren: 0.389 TB/PA allowed (651 PA)High confidence
Can Will Warren miss enough bats?
Will Warren strikes hitters out at a 22.6% clip (60th percentile); D-backs carry a 18.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · D-backsWill Warren: 22.6% K rateD-backs: 18.9% K rateHigh confidence
How do D-backs handle right-handers?
D-backs have produced worse against right-handers this season (0.328 vs. 0.341 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Will Warrenvs right-handers: 0.328 TB/PA (4400 PA)overall: 0.341 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Will Warren command the strike zone?
D-backs walk in 8.4% of trips; Will Warren allows walks sparingly (7.8%).
Edge · Will WarrenD-backs: 8.4% walk rateWill Warren: 7.8% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Will Warren
New York Yankees · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.6/start
Hits allowed5.2/start
5+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 66 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Pavin Smith
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.333 hit rate · 0.800 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 407% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games.
Nolan Arenado
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.350 hit rate · 0.700 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 256-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 90% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
Austin Wells
New York Yankees · 0.167 hit rate · 0.467 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 86% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 20%.
Ryan Waldschmidt
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 4 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 47%.
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees · 0.190 hit rate · 0.333 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2513 / 25
On-base rate is down 33% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 52%.
Luis Garcia Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.206 hit rate · 0.412 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 25
On-base rate is down 37% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 26%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
80
Gabriel Moreno
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
78
Cody Bellinger
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
78
Ketel Marte
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
75
Ben Rice
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Geraldo Perdomo
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
Nolan Arenado
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Yankees bring more power.
Early edge D-backs Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Moderate
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Yankees are trending up; D-backs are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Does Yankees' power tilt the game?
Yankees bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Yankees power pct 80 vs D-backs 38
Is Pavin Smith the one to watch?
Pavin Smith enters as D-backs' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 407% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games.
0.333 hit rate · 0.800 TB/PA · 0.116 hit rate · 0.158 TB/PA
Can Ryan Waldschmidt snap out of it?
Ryan Waldschmidt has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 4 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 47%.
0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA · 0.227 hit rate · 0.320 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-20, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.