Philadelphia Phillies
82-65 · 2nd in NL East, 4 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Aaron Nola · High-strikeout arm
@
Atlanta Braves
86-61 · 1st in NL East
Offense cooling latelyLHP Chris Sale · Elite strikeout stuff · plus control
Team Identity
Philadelphia Phillies
Season-to-date, 147 games, 5,668 PA.
An opportunistic, aggressive offense that cashes in scoring chances. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAverage61
ContactAverage47
Plate DisciplineAverage46
SpeedAbove Avg70
RISPElite90
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 20% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Atlanta Braves
Season-to-date, 147 games, 5,653 PA.
A power-hitting, opportunistic offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be free-swinging. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAbove Avg79
ContactAverage59
Plate DisciplineWell Below24
SpeedBelow Avg35
RISPAbove Avg77
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 25% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Braves bring the more power-hitting profile, while Phillies lean on being opportunistic.
Swing Factor
Braves rank in the 79th percentile in extra-base production, while Aaron Nola sits in the 7th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Phillies are trending down and Braves are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Aaron Nola limit Braves' power?
Braves rank in the 79th percentile in extra-base production, while Aaron Nola sits in the 7th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · BravesBraves: 0.358 TB/PAAaron Nola: 0.427 TB/PA allowed (679 PA)High confidence
Can Chris Sale miss enough bats?
Chris Sale strikes hitters out at a 30.2% clip (95th percentile); Phillies carry a 21.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · Chris SaleChris Sale: 30.2% K ratePhillies: 21.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Aaron Nola miss enough bats?
Aaron Nola strikes hitters out at a 23.9% clip (69th percentile); Braves carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · BravesAaron Nola: 23.9% K rateBraves: 21.0% K rateHigh confidence
Can Aaron Nola command the strike zone?
Braves walk in 7.4% of trips; Aaron Nola allows walks sparingly (7.7%).
Edge · Aaron NolaBraves: 7.4% walk rateAaron Nola: 7.7% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Chris Sale limit Phillies' power?
Phillies rank in the 61st percentile in extra-base production, while Chris Sale sits in the 80th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Chris SalePhillies: 0.347 TB/PAChris Sale: 0.280 TB/PA allowed (610 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Aaron Nola
Philadelphia Phillies · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.2/start
Hits allowed4.9/start
7+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
24% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Chris Sale
Atlanta Braves · 8 starts
Strikeouts8.4/start
Hits allowed4.8/start
6+ Strikeouts — 6 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
30% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Ha-Seong Kim
Atlanta Braves · 0.316 hit rate · 0.368 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L256 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 437% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Atlanta Braves · 0.302 hit rate · 0.581 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 71% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 16%.
Matt Olson
Atlanta Braves · 0.095 hit rate · 0.119 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 74% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games.
J.T. Realmuto
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.074 hit rate · 0.074 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 76% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Brandon Marsh
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.130 hit rate · 0.174 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
On-base rate is down 58% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
78
Drake Baldwin
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
75
Ronald Acuna Jr.
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
71
Bryce Harper
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
70
Trea Turner
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
68
Kyle Schwarber
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
65
Luis Arraez
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Braves bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.
Early edge Braves Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 61st percentile in combined suppression.
- Phillies are trending down; Braves are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Is Ha-Seong Kim the one to watch?
Ha-Seong Kim enters as Braves' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 437% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
0.316 hit rate · 0.368 TB/PA · 0.069 hit rate · 0.069 TB/PA
Can Matt Olson snap out of it?
Matt Olson has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 74% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games.
0.095 hit rate · 0.119 TB/PA · 0.224 hit rate · 0.458 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-11, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.