Philadelphia Phillies
82-67 · 2nd in NL East, 6 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Andrew Painter · Balanced starter
@
Atlanta Braves
88-61 · 1st in NL East
Offense cooling latelyRHP Grant Holmes · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
Philadelphia Phillies
Season-to-date, 149 games, 5,743 PA.
An opportunistic, aggressive offense that cashes in scoring chances. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAverage60
ContactBelow Avg44
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg43
SpeedAbove Avg72
RISPElite92
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 32% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Atlanta Braves
Season-to-date, 149 games, 5,744 PA.
A power-hitting, opportunistic offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be free-swinging. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAbove Avg81
ContactAverage61
Plate DisciplineWell Below24
SpeedBelow Avg37
RISPAbove Avg74
Recent FormTrending Down
Hit rate is down 7% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Braves bring the more power-hitting profile, while Phillies lean on being opportunistic.
Swing Factor
Braves rank in the 81st percentile in extra-base production, while Andrew Painter sits in the 20th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Phillies are trending down and Braves are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Andrew Painter limit Braves' power?
Braves rank in the 81st percentile in extra-base production, while Andrew Painter sits in the 20th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · BravesBraves: 0.359 TB/PAAndrew Painter: 0.388 TB/PA allowed (495 PA)High confidence
Can Grant Holmes miss enough bats?
Grant Holmes strikes hitters out at a 18.4% clip (29th percentile); Phillies carry a 21.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · PhilliesGrant Holmes: 18.4% K ratePhillies: 21.4% K rateHigh confidence
Can Andrew Painter command the strike zone?
Braves walk in 7.4% of trips; Andrew Painter allows walks sparingly (7.9%).
Edge · Andrew PainterBraves: 7.4% walk rateAndrew Painter: 7.9% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Andrew Painter miss enough bats?
Andrew Painter strikes hitters out at a 19.6% clip (37th percentile); Braves carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · BravesAndrew Painter: 19.6% K rateBraves: 20.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can Grant Holmes limit Phillies' power?
Phillies rank in the 60th percentile in extra-base production, while Grant Holmes sits in the 50th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · PhilliesPhillies: 0.347 TB/PAGrant Holmes: 0.337 TB/PA allowed (591 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Andrew Painter
Philadelphia Phillies · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.5/start
Hits allowed4.1/start
6+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
20% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Grant Holmes
Atlanta Braves · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.8/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
18% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Atlanta Braves · 0.364 hit rate · 0.727 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 117% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
Mike Yastrzemski
Atlanta Braves · 0.333 hit rate · 0.429 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L259 / 252-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 71% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
Ha-Seong Kim
Atlanta Braves · 0.190 hit rate · 0.238 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L257 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 150% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games.
Bryson Stott
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.065 hit rate · 0.065 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games.
Matt Olson
Atlanta Braves · 0.095 hit rate · 0.167 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 63% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games.
Brandon Marsh
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.143 hit rate · 0.190 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is down 53% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
78
Ronald Acuna Jr.
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
74
Drake Baldwin
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
68
Bryce Harper
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
68
Alec Bohm
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
67
Trea Turner
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
67
Luis Arraez
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Braves bring more power.
Early edge Braves Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 38th percentile in combined suppression.
- Phillies are trending down; Braves are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Is Ronald Acuna Jr. the one to watch?
Ronald Acuna Jr. enters as Braves' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 117% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
0.364 hit rate · 0.727 TB/PA · 0.197 hit rate · 0.335 TB/PA
Can Bryson Stott snap out of it?
Bryson Stott has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games.
0.065 hit rate · 0.065 TB/PA · 0.224 hit rate · 0.353 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-13, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.