Sports Today Tuesday, September 22
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 22, 2026
Cincinnati Reds
72-84 · 5th in NL Central, 26 GB
Offense cooling lately
LHP Brandon Williamson · Pitches to contact
@
Atlanta Braves
92-64 · 1st in NL East
Bats heating up
RHP JR Ritchie · Balanced starter
MLB · Truist Park · 4:15 PM PT

Team Identity

Cincinnati Reds
Season-to-date, 156 games, 6,033 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average51
Contact
Well Below4
Plate Discipline
Average64
Speed
Average53
RISP
Well Below6
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 30% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Atlanta Braves
Season-to-date, 156 games, 6,020 PA.
A power-hitting, opportunistic offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Elite86
Contact
Average62
Plate Discipline
Below Avg27
Speed
Below Avg38
RISP
Above Avg74
Recent Form
Trending Up
Hit rate is up 12% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Braves' offense is defined by being power-hitting, and this game tests whether Reds can match it.

Swing Factor

JR Ritchie strikes hitters out at a 20.1% clip (41st percentile); Reds carry a 24.5% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Reds are trending down and Braves are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can JR Ritchie miss enough bats?
JR Ritchie strikes hitters out at a 20.1% clip (41st percentile); Reds carry a 24.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · RedsJR Ritchie: 20.1% K rateReds: 24.5% K rateModerate confidence
Can Brandon Williamson limit Braves' power?
Braves rank in the 86th percentile in extra-base production, while Brandon Williamson sits in the 32nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · BravesBraves: 0.360 TB/PABrandon Williamson: 0.369 TB/PA allowed (198 PA)Moderate confidence
Can Brandon Williamson miss enough bats?
Brandon Williamson strikes hitters out at a 15.7% clip (12th percentile); Braves carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · BravesBrandon Williamson: 15.7% K rateBraves: 21.0% K rateModerate confidence
Can Brandon Williamson command the strike zone?
Braves walk in 7.5% of trips; Brandon Williamson allows walks at a fairly typical rate (13.6%).
Edge · Brandon WilliamsonBraves: 7.5% walk rateBrandon Williamson: 13.6% walks allowedModerate confidence
Can JR Ritchie command the strike zone?
Reds walk in 9.0% of trips; JR Ritchie allows walks at a fairly typical rate (13.2%).
Edge · RedsReds: 9.0% walk rateJR Ritchie: 13.2% walks allowedModerate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Brandon Williamson
Brandon Williamson
Cincinnati Reds · 7 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.4/start
Hits allowed4.7/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
16% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
JR Ritchie
JR Ritchie
Atlanta Braves · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.0/start
Hits allowed4.2/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
20% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Mike Yastrzemski
Mike Yastrzemski
Atlanta Braves · 0.321 hit rate · 0.679 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 113% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Atlanta Braves · 0.277 hit rate · 0.574 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2520 / 255-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 56% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 17%.
Mauricio Dubon
Mauricio Dubon
Atlanta Braves · 0.318 hit rate · 0.432 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2519 / 259-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 45% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.
Matt McLain
Matt McLain
Cincinnati Reds · 0.087 hit rate · 0.130 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2510 / 25
On-base rate is down 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 39%.
Hector Rodriguez
Hector Rodriguez
Cincinnati Reds · 0.074 hit rate · 0.148 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L2515 / 25
On-base rate is down 76% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 8 games.
Ke'Bryan Hayes
Ke'Bryan Hayes
Cincinnati Reds · 0.056 hit rate · 0.056 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 22%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

85
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
77
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Mauricio Dubon
Mauricio Dubon
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Consistently reaching base
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
69
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted

Expected Game Shape

Power-orientedModerate confidence

Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Braves bring stronger recent momentum. Braves bring more power.

Early edge Braves Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 33rd percentile in combined suppression.
  • Reds are trending down; Braves are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Can Reds handle JR Ritchie's strikeout stuff?
Reds have been a below-average contact team while JR Ritchie misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Reds contact percentile: 4
Is Mike Yastrzemski the one to watch?
Mike Yastrzemski enters as Braves' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 113% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games.
0.321 hit rate · 0.679 TB/PA · 0.195 hit rate · 0.319 TB/PA
Can Matt McLain snap out of it?
Matt McLain has cooled off. On-base rate is down 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 39%.
0.087 hit rate · 0.130 TB/PA · 0.158 hit rate · 0.290 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-22, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.