Milwaukee Brewers
95-58 · 1st in NL Central
Bats heating upRHP Dustin May · Balanced starter
@
Baltimore Orioles
75-78 · 5th in AL East, 18.5 GB
Bats heating upLHP Cade Povich · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
Milwaukee Brewers
Season-to-date, 153 games, 6,216 PA.
An opportunistic, patient offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below20
ContactAbove Avg79
Plate DisciplineElite96
SpeedAverage62
RISPElite97
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 20% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Baltimore Orioles
Season-to-date, 153 games, 5,947 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be station-to-station. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage52
ContactWell Below23
Plate DisciplineElite86
SpeedWell Below17
RISPAverage57
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 10% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Orioles bring the more patient profile, while Brewers lean on being opportunistic.
Swing Factor
Cade Povich strikes hitters out at a 17.2% clip (20th percentile); Brewers carry a 20.7% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Brewers are trending up and Orioles are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Cade Povich miss enough bats?
Cade Povich strikes hitters out at a 17.2% clip (20th percentile); Brewers carry a 20.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · BrewersCade Povich: 17.2% K rateBrewers: 20.7% K rateLow confidence
Can Cade Povich command the strike zone?
Brewers walk in 10.1% of trips; Cade Povich allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.0%).
Edge · BrewersBrewers: 10.1% walk rateCade Povich: 9.0% walks allowedLow confidence
Can Dustin May command the strike zone?
Orioles walk in 9.4% of trips; Dustin May allows walks sparingly (7.6%).
Edge · Dustin MayOrioles: 9.4% walk rateDustin May: 7.6% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Dustin May miss enough bats?
Dustin May strikes hitters out at a 22.0% clip (57th percentile); Orioles carry a 24.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · OriolesDustin May: 22.0% K rateOrioles: 24.1% K rateHigh confidence
How do Brewers handle left-handers?
Brewers have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.323 vs. 0.339 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Cade Povichvs left-handers: 0.323 TB/PA (1865 PA)overall: 0.339 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Dustin May
Milwaukee Brewers · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.8/start
Hits allowed4.4/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
22% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Cade Povich
Baltimore Orioles · 6 starts
Strikeouts3.8/start
Hits allowed5.2/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
17% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Garrett Mitchell
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.343 hit rate · 0.657 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 94% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 23%.
Brice Turang
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.275 hit rate · 0.471 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 252-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 71% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
Joey Ortiz
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.406 hit rate · 0.562 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2520 / 258-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 89% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 8 games.
David Hamilton
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.118 hit rate · 0.118 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 58% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.
Leody Taveras
Baltimore Orioles · 0.190 hit rate · 0.238 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2510 / 25
On-base rate is down 32% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 48%.
Sal Frelick
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.174 hit rate · 0.174 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 39% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
86
Brice Turang
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
81
Jackson Chourio
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
75
Pete Alonso
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
William Contreras
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
68
Coby Mayo
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
66
Joey Ortiz
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent plate-appearance volume is limited
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Orioles bring more power.
Early edge Brewers Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 40th percentile in combined suppression.
- Brewers are trending up; Orioles are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Orioles handle Dustin May's strikeout stuff?
Orioles have been a below-average contact team while Dustin May misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Orioles contact percentile: 23
Is Garrett Mitchell the one to watch?
Garrett Mitchell enters as Brewers' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 94% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 23%.
0.343 hit rate · 0.657 TB/PA · 0.215 hit rate · 0.340 TB/PA
Can David Hamilton snap out of it?
David Hamilton has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 58% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.
0.118 hit rate · 0.118 TB/PA · 0.204 hit rate · 0.282 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-18, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.