Sports Today Tuesday, September 22
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 22, 2026
Toronto Blue Jays
77-80 · 4th in AL East, 19 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Max Scherzer · Pitches to contact
@
Baltimore Orioles
76-81 · 5th in AL East, 20 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Chris Bassitt · Pitches to contact
MLB · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 3:35 PM PT

Team Identity

Toronto Blue Jays
Season-to-date, 157 games, 6,001 PA.
A contact-oriented offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Well Below16
Contact
Above Avg81
Plate Discipline
Well Below18
Speed
Average50
RISP
Below Avg26
Recent Form
Trending Up
Walk rate is up 35% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Baltimore Orioles
Season-to-date, 157 games, 6,095 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be station-to-station. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Average50
Contact
Well Below21
Plate Discipline
Above Avg85
Speed
Well Below17
RISP
Average49
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 8% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Orioles bring the more patient profile, while Blue Jays lean on being contact-oriented.

Swing Factor

Chris Bassitt strikes hitters out at a 15.9% clip (12th percentile); Blue Jays carry a 18.6% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Blue Jays are trending up and Orioles are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Chris Bassitt miss enough bats?
Chris Bassitt strikes hitters out at a 15.9% clip (12th percentile); Blue Jays carry a 18.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · Blue JaysChris Bassitt: 15.9% K rateBlue Jays: 18.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Max Scherzer miss enough bats?
Max Scherzer strikes hitters out at a 16.2% clip (14th percentile); Orioles carry a 24.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · OriolesMax Scherzer: 16.2% K rateOrioles: 24.1% K rateHigh confidence
Can Max Scherzer command the strike zone?
Orioles walk in 9.4% of trips; Max Scherzer allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.5%).
Edge · OriolesOrioles: 9.4% walk rateMax Scherzer: 9.5% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Chris Bassitt command the strike zone?
Blue Jays walk in 7.3% of trips; Chris Bassitt allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.1%).
Edge · Chris BassittBlue Jays: 7.3% walk rateChris Bassitt: 8.1% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Chris Bassitt limit Blue Jays' power?
Blue Jays rank in the 16th percentile in extra-base production, while Chris Bassitt sits in the 38th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Chris BassittBlue Jays: 0.337 TB/PAChris Bassitt: 0.357 TB/PA allowed (454 PA)High confidence

Pitcher Trends

Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer
Toronto Blue Jays · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.9/start
Hits allowed4.1/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
16% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Chris Bassitt
Chris Bassitt
Baltimore Orioles · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.5/start
Hits allowed6.1/start
5+ Hits Allowed — 6 of last 65+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
16% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson
Baltimore Orioles · 0.295 hit rate · 0.523 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 25
Hit rate is up 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.244 hit rate · 0.488 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2518 / 254-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 24% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 17%.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Baltimore Orioles · 0.289 hit rate · 0.526 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
Hit rate is up 26% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 24%.
Josh Smith
Josh Smith
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.080 hit rate · 0.120 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L102 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 76% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games.
Jackson Holliday
Jackson Holliday
Baltimore Orioles · 0.118 hit rate · 0.118 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 61% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 4 games.
Ernie Clement
Ernie Clement
Toronto Blue Jays · 0.086 hit rate · 0.143 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
Hit rate is down 66% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games.

Players Positioned to Succeed

72
Coby Mayo
Coby Mayo
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Alejandro Kirk
Alejandro Kirk
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Adley Rutschman
Adley Rutschman
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
70
Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
69
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1+ Hit
Toronto Blue Jays
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Orioles bring more power.

Early edge Orioles Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 31st percentile in combined suppression.
  • Blue Jays are trending up; Orioles are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Can Josh Smith snap out of it?
Josh Smith has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 76% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games.
0.080 hit rate · 0.120 TB/PA · 0.208 hit rate · 0.491 TB/PA
Is Gunnar Henderson the one to watch?
Gunnar Henderson enters as Orioles' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
0.295 hit rate · 0.523 TB/PA · 0.189 hit rate · 0.340 TB/PA
Can Orioles handle Max Scherzer's strikeout stuff?
Orioles have been a below-average contact team while Max Scherzer misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Orioles contact percentile: 21
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-22, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.