Sports Today Tuesday, September 22
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 22, 2026
Cleveland Guardians
81-75 · 1st in AL Central
Bats heating up
LHP Parker Messick · High-strikeout arm · plus control
@
Boston Red Sox
84-72 · 3rd in AL East, 11.5 GB
Offense cooling lately
LHP Payton Tolle · Elite strikeout stuff · plus control
MLB · Fenway Park · 3:45 PM PT

Team Identity

Cleveland Guardians
Season-to-date, 156 games, 6,106 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be inconsistent with runners in scoring position. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Well Below12
Contact
Below Avg43
Plate Discipline
Average64
Speed
Elite87
RISP
Well Below11
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 25% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Boston Red Sox
Season-to-date, 156 games, 6,132 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average49
Contact
Average59
Plate Discipline
Below Avg36
Speed
Below Avg43
RISP
Below Avg26
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 18% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Guardians' offense is defined by being aggressive, and this game tests whether Red Sox can match it.

Swing Factor

Payton Tolle strikes hitters out at a 28.1% clip (89th percentile); Guardians carry a 20.2% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Guardians are trending up and Red Sox are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Payton Tolle miss enough bats?
Payton Tolle strikes hitters out at a 28.1% clip (89th percentile); Guardians carry a 20.2% strikeout rate.
Edge · Payton TollePayton Tolle: 28.1% K rateGuardians: 20.2% K rateHigh confidence
Can Payton Tolle limit Guardians' power?
Guardians rank in the 12th percentile in extra-base production, while Payton Tolle sits in the 54th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Payton TolleGuardians: 0.321 TB/PAPayton Tolle: 0.329 TB/PA allowed (590 PA)High confidence
Can Parker Messick miss enough bats?
Parker Messick strikes hitters out at a 25.7% clip (81st percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · Red SoxParker Messick: 25.7% K rateRed Sox: 20.7% K rateHigh confidence
How do Guardians handle left-handers?
Guardians have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.301 vs. 0.321 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Payton Tollevs left-handers: 0.301 TB/PA (1861 PA)overall: 0.321 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Parker Messick command the strike zone?
Red Sox walk in 8.1% of trips; Parker Messick allows walks sparingly (6.5%).
Edge · Parker MessickRed Sox: 8.1% walk rateParker Messick: 6.5% walks allowedHigh confidence

Pitcher Trends

Parker Messick
Parker Messick
Cleveland Guardians · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts7.2/start
Hits allowed4.8/start
8+ Strikeouts — 3 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
26% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Payton Tolle
Payton Tolle
Boston Red Sox · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts7.9/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
6+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
28% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Angel Martinez
Angel Martinez
Cleveland Guardians · 0.360 hit rate · 0.880 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 125% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games.
Trevor Story
Trevor Story
Boston Red Sox · 0.300 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L1010 / 10L2522 / 2511-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 62% over his prior baseline, with hits in 10 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 28%.
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
Cleveland Guardians · 0.225 hit rate · 0.550 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
Jahmai Jones
Jahmai Jones
Boston Red Sox · 0.125 hit rate · 0.312 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is down 65% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 38%.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Boston Red Sox · 0.042 hit rate · 0.042 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 87% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 21%.
Mickey Gasper
Mickey Gasper
Boston Red Sox · 0.148 hit rate · 0.259 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2513 / 25
On-base rate is down 50% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 26%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

77
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Roman Anthony
Roman Anthony
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
71
Masataka Yoshida
Masataka Yoshida
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted

Expected Game Shape

Starter-drivenModerate confidence

Runs may be at a premium if the starters hold form. Guardians bring stronger recent momentum. Red Sox bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.

Early edge Red Sox Driver Pitching and command Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 72nd percentile in combined suppression.
  • Guardians are trending up; Red Sox are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Does Red Sox's power tilt the game?
Red Sox bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Guardians power pct 12 vs Red Sox 49
Can Jahmai Jones snap out of it?
Jahmai Jones has cooled off. On-base rate is down 65% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 38%.
0.125 hit rate · 0.312 TB/PA · 0.340 hit rate · 0.660 TB/PA
Is Angel Martinez the one to watch?
Angel Martinez enters as Guardians' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 125% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games.
0.360 hit rate · 0.880 TB/PA · 0.222 hit rate · 0.392 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-22, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.