Chicago Cubs
88-72 · 2nd in NL Central, 12.5 GB
Offense cooling latelyLHP David Peterson · Balanced starter
@
Boston Red Sox
86-74 · 3rd in AL East, 10.5 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Brayan Bello · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
Chicago Cubs
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,502 PA.
A patient, power-hitting offense that works counts and draws walks. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerElite91
ContactAbove Avg72
Plate DisciplineElite94
SpeedAbove Avg77
RISPBelow Avg43
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 5% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Boston Red Sox
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,243 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerBelow Avg42
ContactAverage55
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg33
SpeedBelow Avg42
RISPWell Below21
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 19% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Cubs' offense is defined by being patient, and this game tests whether Red Sox can match it.
Swing Factor
Brayan Bello strikes hitters out at a 17.9% clip (25th percentile); Cubs carry a 20.4% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Cubs are trending down and Red Sox are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Brayan Bello miss enough bats?
Brayan Bello strikes hitters out at a 17.9% clip (25th percentile); Cubs carry a 20.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · CubsBrayan Bello: 17.9% K rateCubs: 20.4% K rateHigh confidence
Can Brayan Bello limit Cubs' power?
Cubs rank in the 91st percentile in extra-base production, while Brayan Bello sits in the 45th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · CubsCubs: 0.360 TB/PABrayan Bello: 0.347 TB/PA allowed (502 PA)High confidence
Can Brayan Bello command the strike zone?
Cubs walk in 10.2% of trips; Brayan Bello allows walks sparingly (7.0%).
Edge · Brayan BelloCubs: 10.2% walk rateBrayan Bello: 7.0% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can David Peterson miss enough bats?
David Peterson strikes hitters out at a 19.7% clip (38th percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · Red SoxDavid Peterson: 19.7% K rateRed Sox: 20.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can David Peterson command the strike zone?
Red Sox walk in 8.1% of trips; David Peterson allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.5%).
Edge · David PetersonRed Sox: 8.1% walk rateDavid Peterson: 9.5% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
David Peterson
Chicago Cubs · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.6/start
Hits allowed5.6/start
6+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
20% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Brayan Bello
Boston Red Sox · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.5/start
Hits allowed6.5/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
18% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Ian Happ
Chicago Cubs · 0.216 hit rate · 0.459 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2514 / 254-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 35% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Chicago Cubs · 0.271 hit rate · 0.625 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 33% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
Trevor Story
Boston Red Sox · 0.250 hit rate · 0.417 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2521 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 33% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Boston Red Sox · 0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L102 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 38%.
Jahmai Jones
Boston Red Sox · 0.182 hit rate · 0.318 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is down 56% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 41%.
Wilyer Abreu
Boston Red Sox · 0.132 hit rate · 0.158 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 60% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 32%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
78
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Seiya Suzuki
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
69
Roman Anthony
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
67
Michael Busch
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
64
Wilyer Abreu
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
64
Nico Hoerner
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Cubs bring more power.
Early edge Cubs Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 37th percentile in combined suppression.
- Cubs are trending down; Red Sox are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Does Cubs' power tilt the game?
Cubs bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Cubs power pct 91 vs Red Sox 42
Can Isiah Kiner-Falefa snap out of it?
Isiah Kiner-Falefa has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 38%.
0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA · 0.228 hit rate · 0.296 TB/PA
Is Ian Happ the one to watch?
Ian Happ enters as Cubs' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 35% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
0.216 hit rate · 0.459 TB/PA · 0.182 hit rate · 0.341 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-25, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.