Chicago Cubs
88-72 · 2nd in NL Central, 12.5 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Clay Holmes · Pitches to contact
@
Boston Red Sox
86-74 · 3rd in AL East, 10.5 GB
Offense cooling latelyLHP Alec Gamboa · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
Chicago Cubs
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,502 PA.
A patient, power-hitting offense that works counts and draws walks. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerElite91
ContactAbove Avg72
Plate DisciplineElite94
SpeedAbove Avg77
RISPBelow Avg43
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 5% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Boston Red Sox
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,243 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerBelow Avg42
ContactAverage55
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg33
SpeedBelow Avg42
RISPWell Below21
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 19% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Cubs' offense is defined by being patient, and this game tests whether Red Sox can match it.
Swing Factor
Alec Gamboa strikes hitters out at a 17.9% clip (25th percentile); Cubs carry a 20.4% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Cubs are trending down and Red Sox are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Alec Gamboa miss enough bats?
Alec Gamboa strikes hitters out at a 17.9% clip (25th percentile); Cubs carry a 20.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · CubsAlec Gamboa: 17.9% K rateCubs: 20.4% K rateLow confidence
Can Clay Holmes limit Red Sox's power?
Red Sox rank in the 42nd percentile in extra-base production, while Clay Holmes sits in the 88th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Clay HolmesRed Sox: 0.341 TB/PAClay Holmes: 0.258 TB/PA allowed (407 PA)High confidence
Can Alec Gamboa command the strike zone?
Cubs walk in 10.2% of trips; Alec Gamboa allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.1%).
Edge · Alec GamboaCubs: 10.2% walk rateAlec Gamboa: 8.1% walks allowedLow confidence
Can Clay Holmes miss enough bats?
Clay Holmes strikes hitters out at a 17.9% clip (25th percentile); Red Sox carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · Red SoxClay Holmes: 17.9% K rateRed Sox: 20.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can Clay Holmes command the strike zone?
Red Sox walk in 8.1% of trips; Clay Holmes allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.6%).
Edge · Clay HolmesRed Sox: 8.1% walk rateClay Holmes: 9.6% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Clay Holmes
Chicago Cubs · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.5/start
Hits allowed4.2/start
5 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
18% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Ian Happ
Chicago Cubs · 0.216 hit rate · 0.459 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2514 / 254-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 35% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Chicago Cubs · 0.271 hit rate · 0.625 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 33% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
Trevor Story
Boston Red Sox · 0.250 hit rate · 0.417 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2521 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 33% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Boston Red Sox · 0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L102 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 38%.
Jahmai Jones
Boston Red Sox · 0.182 hit rate · 0.318 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is down 56% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 41%.
Wilyer Abreu
Boston Red Sox · 0.132 hit rate · 0.158 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 60% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 32%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
78
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Seiya Suzuki
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
69
Roman Anthony
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
67
Michael Busch
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
64
Wilyer Abreu
1+ Hit
Boston Red Sox
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
64
Nico Hoerner
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Cubs bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.
Early edge Cubs Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 58th percentile in combined suppression.
- Cubs are trending down; Red Sox are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Does Cubs' power tilt the game?
Cubs bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Cubs power pct 91 vs Red Sox 42
Can Isiah Kiner-Falefa snap out of it?
Isiah Kiner-Falefa has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 38%.
0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA · 0.228 hit rate · 0.296 TB/PA
Is Ian Happ the one to watch?
Ian Happ enters as Cubs' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 35% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
0.216 hit rate · 0.459 TB/PA · 0.182 hit rate · 0.341 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-25, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.