Pittsburgh Pirates
74-74 · 3rd in NL Central, 17.5 GB
Steady at the plateRHP Wilber Dotel · High-strikeout arm
@
Chicago Cubs
82-66 · 2nd in NL Central, 9.5 GB
Bats heating upLHP Shota Imanaga · Command specialist
Team Identity
Pittsburgh Pirates
Season-to-date, 147 games, 5,919 PA.
An aggressive, patient offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases.
PowerBelow Avg38
ContactAverage65
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg68
SpeedElite87
RISPAbove Avg68
Recent FormHolding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
Chicago Cubs
Season-to-date, 147 games, 6,024 PA.
A patient, power-hitting offense that works counts and draws walks. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerElite92
ContactAverage64
Plate DisciplineElite97
SpeedAbove Avg78
RISPAverage57
Recent FormTrending Up
Walk rate is up 8% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Cubs bring the more patient profile, while Pirates lean on being aggressive.
Swing Factor
Cubs walk in 10.3% of trips; Wilber Dotel allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.9%).
Momentum
Pirates are holding steady and Cubs are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Wilber Dotel command the strike zone?
Cubs walk in 10.3% of trips; Wilber Dotel allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.9%).
Edge · CubsCubs: 10.3% walk rateWilber Dotel: 9.9% walks allowedLow confidence
Can Wilber Dotel miss enough bats?
Wilber Dotel strikes hitters out at a 24.1% clip (71st percentile); Cubs carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · CubsWilber Dotel: 24.1% K rateCubs: 20.6% K rateLow confidence
Can Shota Imanaga miss enough bats?
Shota Imanaga strikes hitters out at a 23.4% clip (66th percentile); Pirates carry a 23.2% strikeout rate.
Edge · PiratesShota Imanaga: 23.4% K ratePirates: 23.2% K rateHigh confidence
Can Shota Imanaga limit Pirates' power?
Pirates rank in the 38th percentile in extra-base production, while Shota Imanaga sits in the 15th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · PiratesPirates: 0.344 TB/PAShota Imanaga: 0.402 TB/PA allowed (650 PA)High confidence
How do Pirates handle left-handers?
Pirates have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.323 vs. 0.344 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Shota Imanagavs left-handers: 0.323 TB/PA (1806 PA)overall: 0.344 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Shota Imanaga
Chicago Cubs · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.4/start
Hits allowed5.0/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Michael Conforto
Chicago Cubs · 0.273 hit rate · 0.591 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 25
On-base rate is up 79% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
Alex Bregman
Chicago Cubs · 0.279 hit rate · 0.605 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L107 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 72% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 7%.
Tyrone Taylor
Chicago Cubs · 0.444 hit rate · 0.778 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 106% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games.
Pedro Ramirez
Chicago Cubs · 0.077 hit rate · 0.192 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
Hit rate is down 69% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 31%.
Konnor Griffin
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.107 hit rate · 0.143 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2517 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 60% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games.
Ian Happ
Chicago Cubs · 0.143 hit rate · 0.143 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 59% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 36%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
83
Oneil Cruz
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
77
Bryan Reynolds
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
75
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Alex Bregman
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
72
Nick Gonzales
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
72
Konnor Griffin
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Cubs bring stronger recent momentum. Cubs bring more power.
Early edge Cubs Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 56th percentile in combined suppression.
- Pirates are trending steady; Cubs are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Does Cubs' power tilt the game?
Cubs bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Pirates power pct 38 vs Cubs 92
Is Michael Conforto the one to watch?
Michael Conforto enters as Cubs' hottest bat. On-base rate is up 79% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
0.273 hit rate · 0.591 TB/PA · 0.189 hit rate · 0.378 TB/PA
Can Pedro Ramirez snap out of it?
Pedro Ramirez has cooled off. Hit rate is down 69% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 31%.
0.077 hit rate · 0.192 TB/PA · 0.250 hit rate · 0.383 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-11, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.