Sports Today Sunday, September 13
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 13, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates
74-75 · 3rd in NL Central, 19 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Bubba Chandler · Balanced starter
@
Chicago Cubs
83-66 · 2nd in NL Central, 10 GB
Offense cooling lately
LHP Matthew Boyd · Command specialist
MLB · Wrigley Field · 11:20 AM PT

Team Identity

Pittsburgh Pirates
Season-to-date, 149 games, 5,995 PA.
An aggressive, patient offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Below Avg34
Contact
Average62
Plate Discipline
Above Avg69
Speed
Above Avg83
RISP
Above Avg69
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 14% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Chicago Cubs
Season-to-date, 149 games, 6,099 PA.
A patient, power-hitting offense that works counts and draws walks. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Elite96
Contact
Above Avg71
Plate Discipline
Elite96
Speed
Above Avg78
RISP
Average56
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 9% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Cubs bring the more patient profile, while Pirates lean on being aggressive.

Swing Factor

Cubs walk in 10.2% of trips; Bubba Chandler allows walks at a fairly typical rate (11.3%).

Momentum

Pirates are trending down and Cubs are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Bubba Chandler command the strike zone?
Cubs walk in 10.2% of trips; Bubba Chandler allows walks at a fairly typical rate (11.3%).
Edge · CubsCubs: 10.2% walk rateBubba Chandler: 11.3% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Matthew Boyd miss enough bats?
Matthew Boyd strikes hitters out at a 18.8% clip (32nd percentile); Pirates carry a 23.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · PiratesMatthew Boyd: 18.8% K ratePirates: 23.1% K rateHigh confidence
Can Bubba Chandler miss enough bats?
Bubba Chandler strikes hitters out at a 20.4% clip (42nd percentile); Cubs carry a 20.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · CubsBubba Chandler: 20.4% K rateCubs: 20.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Bubba Chandler limit Cubs' power?
Cubs rank in the 96th percentile in extra-base production, while Bubba Chandler sits in the 68th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · CubsCubs: 0.361 TB/PABubba Chandler: 0.303 TB/PA allowed (628 PA)High confidence
How do Pirates handle left-handers?
Pirates have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.323 vs. 0.343 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Matthew Boydvs left-handers: 0.323 TB/PA (1837 PA)overall: 0.343 TB/PAModerate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Bubba Chandler
Bubba Chandler
Pittsburgh Pirates · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.8/start
Hits allowed4.5/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
20% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Matthew Boyd
Matthew Boyd
Chicago Cubs · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.9/start
Hits allowed5.5/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
19% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Alex Bregman
Alex Bregman
Chicago Cubs · 0.293 hit rate · 0.512 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2517 / 253-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 48% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.244 hit rate · 0.467 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2517 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 36% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 13%.
Rafael Flores
Rafael Flores
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.312 hit rate · 0.438 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 257-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 65% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 16%.
Tyrone Taylor
Tyrone Taylor
Chicago Cubs · 0.200 hit rate · 0.333 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
On-base rate is down 56% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 20%.
Matt Shaw
Matt Shaw
Chicago Cubs · 0.059 hit rate · 0.176 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
Hit rate is down 72% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 24%.
Konnor Griffin
Konnor Griffin
Pittsburgh Pirates · 0.139 hit rate · 0.222 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2516 / 25
Hit rate is down 43% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games.

Players Positioned to Succeed

76
Alex Bregman
Alex Bregman
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
76
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
76
Nick Gonzales
Nick Gonzales
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
74
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
72
Konnor Griffin
Konnor Griffin
1+ Hit
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

Power-orientedModerate confidence

Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Cubs bring more power.

Early edge Cubs Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 47th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Pirates are trending down; Cubs are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Does Cubs' power tilt the game?
Cubs bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Pirates power pct 34 vs Cubs 96
Is Alex Bregman the one to watch?
Alex Bregman enters as Cubs' hottest bat. On-base rate is up 48% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
0.293 hit rate · 0.512 TB/PA · 0.215 hit rate · 0.366 TB/PA
Can Tyrone Taylor snap out of it?
Tyrone Taylor has cooled off. On-base rate is down 56% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 20%.
0.200 hit rate · 0.333 TB/PA · 0.358 hit rate · 0.491 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-13, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.