Miami Marlins
76-80 · 3rd in NL East, 16 GB
Bats heating upRHP Janson Junk · Pitches to contact
@
Chicago Cubs
87-69 · 2nd in NL Central, 11 GB
Bats heating upLHP Shota Imanaga · High-strikeout arm · plus control
Team Identity
Miami Marlins
Season-to-date, 156 games, 6,148 PA.
An aggressive, contact-oriented offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerBelow Avg28
ContactAbove Avg67
Plate DisciplineAverage52
SpeedAbove Avg75
RISPBelow Avg41
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 11% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Chicago Cubs
Season-to-date, 156 games, 6,375 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerElite96
ContactAbove Avg77
Plate DisciplineElite95
SpeedAbove Avg77
RISPAverage54
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 10% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Cubs bring the more power-hitting profile, while Marlins lean on being aggressive.
Swing Factor
Cubs rank in the 96th percentile in extra-base production, while Janson Junk sits in the 23rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Marlins are trending up and Cubs are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Janson Junk limit Cubs' power?
Cubs rank in the 96th percentile in extra-base production, while Janson Junk sits in the 23rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · CubsCubs: 0.363 TB/PAJanson Junk: 0.380 TB/PA allowed (502 PA)High confidence
Can Janson Junk miss enough bats?
Janson Junk strikes hitters out at a 15.5% clip (11th percentile); Cubs carry a 20.3% strikeout rate.
Edge · CubsJanson Junk: 15.5% K rateCubs: 20.3% K rateHigh confidence
Can Janson Junk command the strike zone?
Cubs walk in 10.2% of trips; Janson Junk allows walks sparingly (6.2%).
Edge · Janson JunkCubs: 10.2% walk rateJanson Junk: 6.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Shota Imanaga miss enough bats?
Shota Imanaga strikes hitters out at a 23.5% clip (68th percentile); Marlins carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · MarlinsShota Imanaga: 23.5% K rateMarlins: 21.0% K rateHigh confidence
How do Marlins handle left-handers?
Marlins have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.313 vs. 0.339 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Shota Imanagavs left-handers: 0.313 TB/PA (1666 PA)overall: 0.339 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Janson Junk
Miami Marlins · 8 starts
Strikeouts2.1/start
Hits allowed4.9/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 6 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
16% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Shota Imanaga
Chicago Cubs · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.6/start
Hits allowed5.1/start
5 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
24% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Jakob Marsee
Miami Marlins · 0.304 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 84% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games.
Agustin Ramirez
Miami Marlins · 0.320 hit rate · 0.640 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 132% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games.
Alex Bregman
Chicago Cubs · 0.250 hit rate · 0.550 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 50% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 8%.
Xavier Edwards
Miami Marlins · 0.182 hit rate · 0.182 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 42% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 27%.
Esteury Ruiz
Miami Marlins · 0.125 hit rate · 0.167 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 49% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games.
Kyle Stowers
Miami Marlins · 0.146 hit rate · 0.188 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2517 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 52% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
82
Otto Lopez
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
82
Jakob Marsee
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
78
Heriberto Hernandez
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
75
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
75
Javier Sanoja
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
72
Liam Hicks
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Cubs bring more power.
Early edge Cubs Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 44th percentile in combined suppression.
- Marlins are trending up; Cubs are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Does Cubs' power tilt the game?
Cubs bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Marlins power pct 28 vs Cubs 96
Is Jakob Marsee the one to watch?
Jakob Marsee enters as Marlins' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 84% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games.
0.304 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA · 0.176 hit rate · 0.272 TB/PA
Can Xavier Edwards snap out of it?
Xavier Edwards has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 42% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 27%.
0.182 hit rate · 0.182 TB/PA · 0.234 hit rate · 0.312 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-22, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.