Chicago Cubs
85-68 · 2nd in NL Central, 10 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Clay Holmes · Pitches to contact
@
Cincinnati Reds
71-82 · 5th in NL Central, 24 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Chase Burns · Elite strikeout stuff
Team Identity
Chicago Cubs
Season-to-date, 153 games, 6,250 PA.
A patient, power-hitting offense that works counts and draws walks. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerElite94
ContactAbove Avg72
Plate DisciplineElite95
SpeedAbove Avg78
RISPAverage52
Recent FormTrending Down
Hit rate is down 3% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Cincinnati Reds
Season-to-date, 153 games, 5,926 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAverage59
ContactWell Below4
Plate DisciplineAverage63
SpeedAverage57
RISPWell Below7
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 43% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Cubs' offense is defined by being patient, and this game tests whether Reds can match it.
Swing Factor
Clay Holmes strikes hitters out at a 18.1% clip (25th percentile); Reds carry a 24.5% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Cubs are trending down and Reds are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Clay Holmes miss enough bats?
Clay Holmes strikes hitters out at a 18.1% clip (25th percentile); Reds carry a 24.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · RedsClay Holmes: 18.1% K rateReds: 24.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Chase Burns miss enough bats?
Chase Burns strikes hitters out at a 27.8% clip (88th percentile); Cubs carry a 20.3% strikeout rate.
Edge · CubsChase Burns: 27.8% K rateCubs: 20.3% K rateHigh confidence
Can Chase Burns command the strike zone?
Cubs walk in 10.3% of trips; Chase Burns allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.3%).
Edge · Chase BurnsCubs: 10.3% walk rateChase Burns: 8.3% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Clay Holmes limit Reds' power?
Reds rank in the 59th percentile in extra-base production, while Clay Holmes sits in the 88th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Clay HolmesReds: 0.340 TB/PAClay Holmes: 0.262 TB/PA allowed (382 PA)High confidence
Can Chase Burns limit Cubs' power?
Cubs rank in the 94th percentile in extra-base production, while Chase Burns sits in the 66th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · CubsCubs: 0.362 TB/PAChase Burns: 0.306 TB/PA allowed (648 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Clay Holmes
Chicago Cubs · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.0/start
Hits allowed4.8/start
5 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
18% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Chase Burns
Cincinnati Reds · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.5/start
Hits allowed4.4/start
5+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
28% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Alex Bregman
Chicago Cubs · 0.275 hit rate · 0.575 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2517 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
Elly De La Cruz
Cincinnati Reds · 0.310 hit rate · 0.762 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2521 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 83% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Chicago Cubs · 0.283 hit rate · 0.674 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L107 / 10L2519 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 43% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 20%.
Ke'Bryan Hayes
Cincinnati Reds · 0.053 hit rate · 0.053 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 76% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 42%.
Hector Rodriguez
Cincinnati Reds · 0.118 hit rate · 0.176 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2516 / 25
On-base rate is down 64% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games.
Tyrone Taylor
Chicago Cubs · 0.176 hit rate · 0.353 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
Hit rate is down 51% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 18%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
80
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
75
Elly De La Cruz
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
74
Nathaniel Lowe
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Sal Stewart
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
72
Nico Hoerner
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
71
Alex Bregman
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Cubs bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.
Early edge Cubs Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 64th percentile in combined suppression.
- Cubs are trending down; Reds are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Can Reds handle Clay Holmes's strikeout stuff?
Reds have been a below-average contact team while Clay Holmes misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Reds contact percentile: 4
Does Cubs' power tilt the game?
Cubs bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Cubs power pct 94 vs Reds 59
Is Alex Bregman the one to watch?
Alex Bregman enters as Cubs' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
0.275 hit rate · 0.575 TB/PA · 0.217 hit rate · 0.370 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-18, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.