Chicago Cubs
86-69 · 2nd in NL Central, 11 GB
Steady at the plateLHP David Peterson · Balanced starter
@
Cincinnati Reds
72-83 · 5th in NL Central, 25 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Rhett Lowder · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
Chicago Cubs
Season-to-date, 155 games, 6,330 PA.
A patient, power-hitting offense that works counts and draws walks.
PowerElite93
ContactAbove Avg74
Plate DisciplineElite95
SpeedAbove Avg77
RISPAverage53
Recent FormHolding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
Cincinnati Reds
Season-to-date, 155 games, 5,999 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAverage53
ContactWell Below4
Plate DisciplineAverage64
SpeedAverage53
RISPWell Below6
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 31% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Cubs' offense is defined by being patient, and this game tests whether Reds can match it.
Swing Factor
Cubs rank in the 93rd percentile in extra-base production, while Rhett Lowder sits in the 16th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Cubs are holding steady and Reds are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Rhett Lowder limit Cubs' power?
Cubs rank in the 93rd percentile in extra-base production, while Rhett Lowder sits in the 16th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · CubsCubs: 0.361 TB/PARhett Lowder: 0.398 TB/PA allowed (573 PA)High confidence
Can David Peterson miss enough bats?
David Peterson strikes hitters out at a 19.3% clip (35th percentile); Reds carry a 24.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · RedsDavid Peterson: 19.3% K rateReds: 24.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Rhett Lowder miss enough bats?
Rhett Lowder strikes hitters out at a 17.1% clip (19th percentile); Cubs carry a 20.3% strikeout rate.
Edge · CubsRhett Lowder: 17.1% K rateCubs: 20.3% K rateHigh confidence
Can Rhett Lowder command the strike zone?
Cubs walk in 10.2% of trips; Rhett Lowder allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.9%).
Edge · CubsCubs: 10.2% walk rateRhett Lowder: 8.9% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can David Peterson command the strike zone?
Reds walk in 9.0% of trips; David Peterson allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.7%).
Edge · RedsReds: 9.0% walk rateDavid Peterson: 9.7% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
David Peterson
Chicago Cubs · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.8/start
Hits allowed5.9/start
6+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 66+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
19% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Rhett Lowder
Cincinnati Reds · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.5/start
Hits allowed6.1/start
6+ Hits Allowed — 5 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 6 of last 6
17% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Carson Kelly
Chicago Cubs · 0.310 hit rate · 0.379 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
Hit rate is up 39% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 3%.
Michael Busch
Chicago Cubs · 0.214 hit rate · 0.381 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2513 / 25
On-base rate is up 36% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games.
Elly De La Cruz
Cincinnati Reds · 0.262 hit rate · 0.548 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2521 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 27% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
Tyrone Taylor
Chicago Cubs · 0.067 hit rate · 0.133 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 25
Hit rate is down 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games.
Matt McLain
Cincinnati Reds · 0.048 hit rate · 0.095 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2510 / 25
On-base rate is down 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 43%.
Hector Rodriguez
Cincinnati Reds · 0.067 hit rate · 0.133 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2515 / 25
On-base rate is down 79% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 8 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
76
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Elly De La Cruz
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
74
Nathaniel Lowe
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Seiya Suzuki
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
Sal Stewart
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
68
Alex Bregman
1+ Hit
Chicago Cubs
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Cubs bring more power.
Early edge Cubs Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 28th percentile in combined suppression.
- Cubs are trending steady; Reds are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Does Cubs' power tilt the game?
Cubs bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Cubs power pct 93 vs Reds 53
Can Tyrone Taylor snap out of it?
Tyrone Taylor has cooled off. Hit rate is down 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games.
0.067 hit rate · 0.133 TB/PA · 0.361 hit rate · 0.508 TB/PA
Can Reds handle David Peterson's strikeout stuff?
Reds have been a below-average contact team while David Peterson misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Reds contact percentile: 4
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-20, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.