San Diego Padres
82-69 · 2nd in NL West, 10 GB
Bats heating upLHP Robbie Ray · Balanced starter
@
Colorado Rockies
56-95 · 5th in NL West, 36 GB
Offense cooling latelyMason Adams
Team Identity
San Diego Padres
Season-to-date, 150 games, 5,832 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerBelow Avg30
ContactBelow Avg42
Plate DisciplineAverage56
SpeedAbove Avg82
RISPAverage52
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 18% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Colorado Rockies
Season-to-date, 150 games, 5,917 PA.
A power-hitting, contact-oriented offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be free-swinging. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAbove Avg76
ContactAbove Avg73
Plate DisciplineWell Below25
SpeedAverage45
RISPAbove Avg68
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 22% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Rockies bring the more power-hitting profile, while Padres lean on being aggressive.
Swing Factor
Robbie Ray strikes hitters out at a 18.8% clip (32nd percentile); Rockies carry a 22.1% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Padres are trending up and Rockies are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Robbie Ray miss enough bats?
Robbie Ray strikes hitters out at a 18.8% clip (32nd percentile); Rockies carry a 22.1% strikeout rate.
Edge · RockiesRobbie Ray: 18.8% K rateRockies: 22.1% K rateHigh confidence
Can Robbie Ray command the strike zone?
Rockies walk in 8.0% of trips; Robbie Ray allows walks at a fairly typical rate (11.6%).
Edge · Robbie RayRockies: 8.0% walk rateRobbie Ray: 11.6% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Rockies handle left-handers?
Rockies have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.340 vs. 0.360 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Robbie Rayvs left-handers: 0.340 TB/PA (1869 PA)overall: 0.360 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Robbie Ray limit Rockies' power?
Rockies rank in the 76th percentile in extra-base production, while Robbie Ray sits in the 62nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · RockiesRockies: 0.360 TB/PARobbie Ray: 0.313 TB/PA allowed (696 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Robbie Ray
San Diego Padres · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.8/start
Hits allowed4.1/start
5 or fewer Hits Allowed — 6 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 6 of last 6
19% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Mason Adams
Colorado Rockies · 4 starts
Strikeouts5.5/start
Hits allowed4.5/start
5+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 45 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 4
27% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Jackson Merrill
San Diego Padres · 0.333 hit rate · 0.644 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 255-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
TJ Rumfield
Colorado Rockies · 0.350 hit rate · 0.550 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2519 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 49% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
Connor Norby
Colorado Rockies · 0.306 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2519 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 45% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 22%.
Mickey Moniak
Colorado Rockies · 0.103 hit rate · 0.241 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 25
Hit rate is down 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 48%.
Troy Johnston
Colorado Rockies · 0.130 hit rate · 0.174 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 50% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 30%.
Zac Veen
Colorado Rockies · 0.167 hit rate · 0.167 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 63% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 39%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
80
Ty France
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
80
Fernando Tatis Jr.
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
78
Jake McCarthy
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
75
TJ Rumfield
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
74
Jackson Merrill
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
69
Manny Machado
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Ice cold — 2 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Padres bring stronger recent momentum. Rockies bring more power.
Early edge Rockies Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Elevated
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Padres are trending up; Rockies are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Does Rockies' power tilt the game?
Rockies bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Padres power pct 30 vs Rockies 76
Can Mickey Moniak snap out of it?
Mickey Moniak has cooled off. Hit rate is down 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 48%.
0.103 hit rate · 0.241 TB/PA · 0.228 hit rate · 0.453 TB/PA
Is Jackson Merrill the one to watch?
Jackson Merrill enters as Padres' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
0.333 hit rate · 0.644 TB/PA · 0.212 hit rate · 0.368 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-16, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.