Sports Today Friday, September 18
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 18, 2026
Seattle Mariners
71-82 · 3rd in AL West, 6 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Bryan Woo · High-strikeout arm · plus control
@
Colorado Rockies
56-97 · 5th in NL West, 37 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Gabriel Hughes · Pitches to contact
MLB · Coors Field, hits run 14% above average here · 5:10 PM PT

Team Identity

Seattle Mariners
Season-to-date, 153 games, 5,933 PA.
A below-league-average offense across most categories this season. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Well Below21
Contact
Well Below16
Plate Discipline
Average53
Speed
Average57
RISP
Well Below23
Recent Form
Trending Up
Hit rate is up 21% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Colorado Rockies
Season-to-date, 153 games, 6,034 PA.
An opportunistic, power-hitting offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Above Avg74
Contact
Above Avg73
Plate Discipline
Well Below24
Speed
Average45
RISP
Above Avg74
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 7% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Rockies' offense is defined by being opportunistic, and this game tests whether Mariners can match it.

Swing Factor

Gabriel Hughes strikes hitters out at a 18.2% clip (28th percentile); Mariners carry a 22.4% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Mariners are trending up and Rockies are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Gabriel Hughes miss enough bats?
Gabriel Hughes strikes hitters out at a 18.2% clip (28th percentile); Mariners carry a 22.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · MarinersGabriel Hughes: 18.2% K rateMariners: 22.4% K rateModerate confidence
Can Bryan Woo miss enough bats?
Bryan Woo strikes hitters out at a 24.3% clip (73rd percentile); Rockies carry a 22.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · RockiesBryan Woo: 24.3% K rateRockies: 22.0% K rateHigh confidence
Can Bryan Woo command the strike zone?
Rockies walk in 8.0% of trips; Bryan Woo allows walks sparingly (5.1%).
Edge · Bryan WooRockies: 8.0% walk rateBryan Woo: 5.1% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Bryan Woo limit Rockies' power?
Rockies rank in the 74th percentile in extra-base production, while Bryan Woo sits in the 55th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · RockiesRockies: 0.361 TB/PABryan Woo: 0.328 TB/PA allowed (671 PA)High confidence
How do Mariners handle right-handers?
Mariners have produced better against right-handers this season (0.341 vs. 0.325 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Marinersvs right-handers: 0.341 TB/PA (3941 PA)overall: 0.325 TB/PAModerate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Bryan Woo
Bryan Woo
Seattle Mariners · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts6.1/start
Hits allowed3.5/start
5+ Strikeouts — 6 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 6 of last 6
24% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Gabriel Hughes
Gabriel Hughes
Colorado Rockies · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts3.6/start
Hits allowed5.1/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
18% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Connor Norby
Connor Norby
Colorado Rockies · 0.312 hit rate · 0.562 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L107 / 10L2519 / 255-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 71% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 22%.
Weston Wilson
Weston Wilson
Seattle Mariners · 0.304 hit rate · 0.348 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2510 / 25
Hit rate is up 81% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 22%.
Ezequiel Tovar
Ezequiel Tovar
Colorado Rockies · 0.238 hit rate · 0.381 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2513 / 253-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 34% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 19%.
Mickey Moniak
Mickey Moniak
Colorado Rockies · 0.148 hit rate · 0.259 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 43% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 44%.
Zac Veen
Zac Veen
Colorado Rockies · 0.150 hit rate · 0.150 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 64% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 45%.
Brett Sullivan
Brett Sullivan
Colorado Rockies · 0.176 hit rate · 0.176 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games.

Players Positioned to Succeed

81
Randy Arozarena
Randy Arozarena
1+ Hit
Seattle Mariners
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
79
TJ Rumfield
TJ Rumfield
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
78
Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
77
Dominic Canzone
Dominic Canzone
1+ Hit
Seattle Mariners
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
75
Josh Naylor
Josh Naylor
1+ Hit
Seattle Mariners
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
J.P. Crawford
J.P. Crawford
1+ Hit
Seattle Mariners
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Rockies bring more power.

Early edge Mariners Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 52nd percentile in combined suppression.
  • Mariners are trending up; Rockies are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Does Rockies' power tilt the game?
Rockies bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Mariners power pct 21 vs Rockies 74
Can Mickey Moniak snap out of it?
Mickey Moniak has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 43% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 44%.
0.148 hit rate · 0.259 TB/PA · 0.227 hit rate · 0.455 TB/PA
Is Connor Norby the one to watch?
Connor Norby enters as Rockies' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 71% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 22%.
0.312 hit rate · 0.562 TB/PA · 0.216 hit rate · 0.330 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-18, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.