Arizona Diamondbacks
82-74 · 3rd in NL West, 14 GB
Bats heating upRHP Michael Soroka · Command specialist
@
Colorado Rockies
57-99 · 5th in NL West, 39 GB
Bats heating upLHP Kyle Freeland · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
Arizona Diamondbacks
Season-to-date, 156 games, 6,111 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerBelow Avg39
ContactAverage57
Plate DisciplineAverage56
SpeedAbove Avg67
RISPAverage50
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 19% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Colorado Rockies
Season-to-date, 156 games, 6,155 PA.
A contact-oriented, power-hitting offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg72
ContactAbove Avg73
Plate DisciplineWell Below24
SpeedAverage50
RISPAbove Avg70
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 15% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Rockies bring the more contact-oriented profile, while D-backs lean on being aggressive.
Swing Factor
D-backs rank in the 39th percentile in extra-base production, while Kyle Freeland sits in the 1st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
D-backs are trending up and Rockies are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Kyle Freeland limit D-backs' power?
D-backs rank in the 39th percentile in extra-base production, while Kyle Freeland sits in the 1st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · D-backsD-backs: 0.341 TB/PAKyle Freeland: 0.492 TB/PA allowed (589 PA)High confidence
How do D-backs handle left-handers?
D-backs have produced better against left-handers this season (0.376 vs. 0.341 TB/PA overall).
Edge · D-backsvs left-handers: 0.376 TB/PA (1680 PA)overall: 0.341 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Kyle Freeland miss enough bats?
Kyle Freeland strikes hitters out at a 17.7% clip (23rd percentile); D-backs carry a 18.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · D-backsKyle Freeland: 17.7% K rateD-backs: 18.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can Michael Soroka miss enough bats?
Michael Soroka strikes hitters out at a 22.6% clip (60th percentile); Rockies carry a 22.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · RockiesMichael Soroka: 22.6% K rateRockies: 22.0% K rateHigh confidence
Can Michael Soroka command the strike zone?
Rockies walk in 7.9% of trips; Michael Soroka allows walks sparingly (5.6%).
Edge · Michael SorokaRockies: 7.9% walk rateMichael Soroka: 5.6% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Michael Soroka
Arizona Diamondbacks · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.0/start
Hits allowed4.0/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 65+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Kyle Freeland
Colorado Rockies · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.2/start
Hits allowed5.9/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 66 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
18% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Nolan Arenado
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.385 hit rate · 0.821 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2516 / 257-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 125% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.
Pavin Smith
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.294 hit rate · 0.706 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 347% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games.
Gabriel Moreno
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.326 hit rate · 0.558 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2518 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Zac Veen
Colorado Rockies · 0.176 hit rate · 0.176 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 5 games.
Tim Tawa
Arizona Diamondbacks · 0.097 hit rate · 0.194 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
Hit rate is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games.
Adael Amador
Colorado Rockies · 0.189 hit rate · 0.297 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L107 / 10L2516 / 222-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
80
Jake McCarthy
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
75
TJ Rumfield
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Gabriel Moreno
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Geraldo Perdomo
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Cole Carrigg
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
70
Ketel Marte
1+ Hit
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Rockies bring more power.
Early edge D-backs Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 48th percentile in combined suppression.
- D-backs are trending up; Rockies are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Is Nolan Arenado the one to watch?
Nolan Arenado enters as D-backs' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 125% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.
0.385 hit rate · 0.821 TB/PA · 0.202 hit rate · 0.364 TB/PA
Can Zac Veen snap out of it?
Zac Veen has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 5 games.
0.176 hit rate · 0.176 TB/PA · 0.200 hit rate · 0.382 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-22, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.