Colorado Rockies
55-91 · 5th in NL West, 34 GB
Offense cooling latelyMason Adams
@
Detroit Tigers
67-79 · 4th in AL Central, 8 GB
Offense cooling latelyLHP Framber Valdez · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
Colorado Rockies
Season-to-date, 146 games, 5,758 PA.
A power-hitting, opportunistic offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be free-swinging. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAbove Avg73
ContactAbove Avg68
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg26
SpeedAverage48
RISPAbove Avg70
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 21% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Detroit Tigers
Season-to-date, 146 games, 5,693 PA.
A below-league-average offense across most categories this season. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAverage48
ContactBelow Avg32
Plate DisciplineAverage65
SpeedWell Below7
RISPWell Below18
Recent FormTrending Down
Walk rate is down 14% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Rockies' offense is defined by being power-hitting, and this game tests whether Tigers can match it.
Swing Factor
Framber Valdez strikes hitters out at a 16.9% clip (18th percentile); Rockies carry a 22.2% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Rockies are trending down and Tigers are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Framber Valdez miss enough bats?
Framber Valdez strikes hitters out at a 16.9% clip (18th percentile); Rockies carry a 22.2% strikeout rate.
Edge · RockiesFramber Valdez: 16.9% K rateRockies: 22.2% K rateHigh confidence
Can Framber Valdez command the strike zone?
Rockies walk in 8.0% of trips; Framber Valdez allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.2%).
Edge · Framber ValdezRockies: 8.0% walk rateFramber Valdez: 8.2% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Rockies handle left-handers?
Rockies have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.336 vs. 0.359 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Framber Valdezvs left-handers: 0.336 TB/PA (1799 PA)overall: 0.359 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Framber Valdez limit Rockies' power?
Rockies rank in the 73rd percentile in extra-base production, while Framber Valdez sits in the 56th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · RockiesRockies: 0.359 TB/PAFramber Valdez: 0.326 TB/PA allowed (705 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Mason Adams
Colorado Rockies · 3 starts
Strikeouts5.7/start
Hits allowed5.3/start
5+ Strikeouts — 3 of last 35 or fewer Hits Allowed — 2 of last 3
27% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Framber Valdez
Detroit Tigers · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.9/start
Hits allowed5.8/start
5 or fewer Strikeouts — 6 of last 66 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
17% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
TJ Rumfield
Colorado Rockies · 0.302 hit rate · 0.535 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Riley Greene
Detroit Tigers · 0.278 hit rate · 0.639 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 71% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 8 games.
Jake McCarthy
Colorado Rockies · 0.286 hit rate · 0.531 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2520 / 255-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 26% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
Dillon Dingler
Detroit Tigers · 0.156 hit rate · 0.188 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games.
Mickey Moniak
Colorado Rockies · 0.156 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is down 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 31%.
Hunter Goodman
Colorado Rockies · 0.119 hit rate · 0.238 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 50% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
80
Jake McCarthy
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Kevin McGonigle
1+ Hit
Detroit Tigers
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
Gleyber Torres
1+ Hit
Detroit Tigers
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
68
Riley Greene
1+ Hit
Detroit Tigers
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
65
John Peck
1+ Hit
Detroit Tigers
Why it stands out
Batting 7th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
62
Hunter Goodman
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 2 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Rockies bring more power.
Early edge Rockies Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Moderate
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Rockies are trending down; Tigers are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Is TJ Rumfield the one to watch?
TJ Rumfield enters as Rockies' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
0.302 hit rate · 0.535 TB/PA · 0.239 hit rate · 0.367 TB/PA
Can Dillon Dingler snap out of it?
Dillon Dingler has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games.
0.156 hit rate · 0.188 TB/PA · 0.221 hit rate · 0.416 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-11, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.