Colorado Rockies
55-93 · 5th in NL West, 35 GB
Steady at the plateRHP Gabriel Hughes · Pitches to contact
@
Detroit Tigers
69-79 · 4th in AL Central, 7 GB
Bats heating upRHP Jackson Jobe · Balanced starter
Team Identity
Colorado Rockies
Season-to-date, 148 games, 5,839 PA.
A power-hitting, contact-oriented offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be free-swinging.
PowerAbove Avg71
ContactAbove Avg70
Plate DisciplineWell Below25
SpeedAverage47
RISPAbove Avg69
Recent FormHolding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
Detroit Tigers
Season-to-date, 148 games, 5,780 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be station-to-station. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage51
ContactBelow Avg34
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg71
SpeedWell Below10
RISPWell Below22
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 7% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Tigers bring the more patient profile, while Rockies lean on being power-hitting.
Swing Factor
Rockies rank in the 71st percentile in extra-base production, while Jackson Jobe sits in the 12th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Rockies are holding steady and Tigers are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Jackson Jobe limit Rockies' power?
Rockies rank in the 71st percentile in extra-base production, while Jackson Jobe sits in the 12th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · RockiesRockies: 0.359 TB/PAJackson Jobe: 0.409 TB/PA allowed (127 PA)Low confidence
Can Gabriel Hughes miss enough bats?
Gabriel Hughes strikes hitters out at a 18.5% clip (29th percentile); Tigers carry a 22.3% strikeout rate.
Edge · TigersGabriel Hughes: 18.5% K rateTigers: 22.3% K rateModerate confidence
Can Jackson Jobe miss enough bats?
Jackson Jobe strikes hitters out at a 20.5% clip (43rd percentile); Rockies carry a 22.2% strikeout rate.
Edge · RockiesJackson Jobe: 20.5% K rateRockies: 22.2% K rateLow confidence
Can Jackson Jobe command the strike zone?
Rockies walk in 8.0% of trips; Jackson Jobe allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.4%).
Edge · Jackson JobeRockies: 8.0% walk rateJackson Jobe: 9.4% walks allowedLow confidence
Can Gabriel Hughes command the strike zone?
Tigers walk in 9.0% of trips; Gabriel Hughes allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.1%).
Edge · Gabriel HughesTigers: 9.0% walk rateGabriel Hughes: 8.1% walks allowedModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Gabriel Hughes
Colorado Rockies · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.6/start
Hits allowed5.2/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
18% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Jackson Jobe
Detroit Tigers · 6 starts
Strikeouts4.3/start
Hits allowed4.7/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
20% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Riley Greene
Detroit Tigers · 0.357 hit rate · 0.738 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2512 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 99% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
Max Clark
Detroit Tigers · 0.300 hit rate · 0.475 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2514 / 253-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 67% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 18%.
TJ Rumfield
Colorado Rockies · 0.350 hit rate · 0.625 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 71% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
Brett Callahan
Detroit Tigers · 0.125 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2510 / 192-game hit streak
Hit rate is down 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 69%.
Mickey Moniak
Colorado Rockies · 0.115 hit rate · 0.231 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2510 / 25
On-base rate is down 60% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 38%.
Troy Johnston
Colorado Rockies · 0.143 hit rate · 0.190 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
89
Jake McCarthy
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
77
TJ Rumfield
1+ Hit
Colorado Rockies
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Riley Greene
1+ Hit
Detroit Tigers
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Kevin McGonigle
1+ Hit
Detroit Tigers
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Max Clark
1+ Hit
Detroit Tigers
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
68
John Peck
1+ Hit
Detroit Tigers
Why it stands out
Batting 9th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Tigers bring stronger recent momentum. Rockies bring more power.
Early edge Rockies Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 37th percentile in combined suppression.
- Rockies are trending steady; Tigers are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Is Riley Greene the one to watch?
Riley Greene enters as Tigers' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 99% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
0.357 hit rate · 0.738 TB/PA · 0.224 hit rate · 0.370 TB/PA
Can Brett Callahan snap out of it?
Brett Callahan has cooled off. Hit rate is down 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 69%.
0.125 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA · 0.237 hit rate · 0.395 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-13, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.