Sports Today Friday, September 25
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 25, 2026
Cleveland Guardians
83-76 · 1st in AL Central
Bats heating up
RHP Gavin Williams · Elite strikeout stuff
@
Kansas City Royals
68-91 · 5th in AL Central, 15 GB
Offense cooling lately
LHP Noah Cameron · Command specialist
MLB · Kauffman Stadium, hits run 6% above average here · 4:40 PM PT

Team Identity

Cleveland Guardians
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,219 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be inconsistent with runners in scoring position. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Well Below11
Contact
Below Avg41
Plate Discipline
Average65
Speed
Elite87
RISP
Well Below11
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 19% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Kansas City Royals
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,201 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be inconsistent with runners in scoring position. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average57
Contact
Average65
Plate Discipline
Below Avg26
Speed
Above Avg78
RISP
Well Below13
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 10% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Royals' offense is defined by being aggressive, and this game tests whether Guardians can match it.

Swing Factor

Gavin Williams strikes hitters out at a 32.1% clip (98th percentile); Royals carry a 20.2% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Guardians are trending up and Royals are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Gavin Williams miss enough bats?
Gavin Williams strikes hitters out at a 32.1% clip (98th percentile); Royals carry a 20.2% strikeout rate.
Edge · RoyalsGavin Williams: 32.1% K rateRoyals: 20.2% K rateHigh confidence
Can Noah Cameron limit Guardians' power?
Guardians rank in the 11th percentile in extra-base production, while Noah Cameron sits in the 47th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Noah CameronGuardians: 0.320 TB/PANoah Cameron: 0.343 TB/PA allowed (734 PA)High confidence
Can Gavin Williams command the strike zone?
Royals walk in 8.1% of trips; Gavin Williams allows walks sparingly (7.4%).
Edge · Gavin WilliamsRoyals: 8.1% walk rateGavin Williams: 7.4% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Guardians handle left-handers?
Guardians have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.299 vs. 0.320 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Noah Cameronvs left-handers: 0.299 TB/PA (1943 PA)overall: 0.320 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Noah Cameron command the strike zone?
Guardians walk in 8.9% of trips; Noah Cameron allows walks sparingly (7.4%).
Edge · Noah CameronGuardians: 8.9% walk rateNoah Cameron: 7.4% walks allowedHigh confidence

Pitcher Trends

Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams
Cleveland Guardians · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts8.1/start
Hits allowed4.1/start
7+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
32% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Noah Cameron
Noah Cameron
Kansas City Royals · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.9/start
Hits allowed4.2/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
21% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Angel Martinez
Angel Martinez
Cleveland Guardians · 0.385 hit rate · 0.885 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 120% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games.
Vinnie Pasquantino
Vinnie Pasquantino
Kansas City Royals · 0.312 hit rate · 0.750 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2517 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 144% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
Petey Halpin
Petey Halpin
Cleveland Guardians · 0.312 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L105 / 10L2515 / 254-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 83% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 12%.
Angel Genao
Angel Genao
Cleveland Guardians · 0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L101 / 10L259 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 26%.
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
Cleveland Guardians · 0.154 hit rate · 0.154 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 54% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 42%.
Kyle Isbel
Kyle Isbel
Kansas City Royals · 0.143 hit rate · 0.143 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 51% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 38%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

80
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
72
Bobby Witt Jr.
Bobby Witt Jr.
1+ Hit
Kansas City Royals
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
1+ Hit
Kansas City Royals
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
70
Angel Martinez
Angel Martinez
1+ Hit
Cleveland Guardians
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

Starter-drivenModerate confidence

Runs may be at a premium if the starters hold form. Guardians bring stronger recent momentum. Royals bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.

Early edge Guardians Driver Pitching and command Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 64th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Guardians are trending up; Royals are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Does Royals' power tilt the game?
Royals bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Guardians power pct 11 vs Royals 57
Is Angel Martinez the one to watch?
Angel Martinez enters as Guardians' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 120% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games.
0.385 hit rate · 0.885 TB/PA · 0.225 hit rate · 0.402 TB/PA
Can Angel Genao snap out of it?
Angel Genao has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 26%.
0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA · 0.220 hit rate · 0.305 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-25, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.