San Diego Padres
87-69 · 2nd in NL West, 9 GB
Bats heating upRHP Michael King · Balanced starter
@
Los Angeles Dodgers
96-60 · 1st in NL West
Steady at the plateStarter TBD
Team Identity
San Diego Padres
Season-to-date, 156 games, 6,089 PA.
An aggressive offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerBelow Avg40
ContactAverage46
Plate DisciplineAverage56
SpeedAbove Avg78
RISPAverage66
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 44% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Season-to-date, 156 games, 6,137 PA.
A contact-oriented, patient offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be station-to-station.
PowerElite89
ContactElite97
Plate DisciplineElite94
SpeedBelow Avg32
RISPElite90
Recent FormHolding Steady
Recent underlying offense is roughly in line with its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Dodgers bring the more contact-oriented profile, while Padres lean on being aggressive.
Swing Factor
Michael King strikes hitters out at a 20.3% clip (42nd percentile); Dodgers carry a 19.7% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Padres are trending up and Dodgers are holding steady over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Michael King miss enough bats?
Michael King strikes hitters out at a 20.3% clip (42nd percentile); Dodgers carry a 19.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · DodgersMichael King: 20.3% K rateDodgers: 19.7% K rateHigh confidence
Can Michael King command the strike zone?
Dodgers walk in 9.9% of trips; Michael King allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.0%).
Edge · DodgersDodgers: 9.9% walk rateMichael King: 9.0% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Michael King limit Dodgers' power?
Dodgers rank in the 89th percentile in extra-base production, while Michael King sits in the 72nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · DodgersDodgers: 0.364 TB/PAMichael King: 0.299 TB/PA allowed (753 PA)High confidence
How do Dodgers handle right-handers?
Dodgers have produced worse against right-handers this season (0.362 vs. 0.364 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Michael Kingvs right-handers: 0.362 TB/PA (4212 PA)overall: 0.364 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Michael King
San Diego Padres · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.0/start
Hits allowed5.0/start
5 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
20% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Kyle Tucker
Los Angeles Dodgers · 0.300 hit rate · 0.700 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 128% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 8%.
Alex Freeland
Los Angeles Dodgers · 0.280 hit rate · 0.440 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 77% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 12%.
Jake Cronenworth
San Diego Padres · 0.340 hit rate · 0.532 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L1010 / 10L2515 / 2510-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 116% over his prior baseline, with hits in 10 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
Freddie Freeman
Los Angeles Dodgers · 0.184 hit rate · 0.184 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 52% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 21%.
Tommy Edman
Los Angeles Dodgers · 0.073 hit rate · 0.146 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2512 / 252-game hit streak
Hit rate is down 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games.
Luis Campusano
San Diego Padres · 0.125 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L105 / 10L2510 / 25
Hit rate is down 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
87
Jackson Merrill
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
82
Ty France
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
80
Fernando Tatis Jr.
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
80
Mookie Betts
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
80
Jake Cronenworth
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
78
Dustin Harris
1+ Hit
San Diego Padres
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
Expected Game Shape
UncertainLow confidence
Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Padres bring stronger recent momentum. Dodgers bring more power.
Early edge Dodgers Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Moderate
- At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
- Padres are trending up; Dodgers are trending steady.
Storylines to Watch
Does Dodgers' power tilt the game?
Dodgers bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Padres power pct 40 vs Dodgers 89
Can Freddie Freeman snap out of it?
Freddie Freeman has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 52% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 21%.
0.184 hit rate · 0.184 TB/PA · 0.252 hit rate · 0.384 TB/PA
Is Kyle Tucker the one to watch?
Kyle Tucker enters as Dodgers' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 128% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 8%.
0.300 hit rate · 0.700 TB/PA · 0.191 hit rate · 0.306 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-22, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.