Sports Today Friday, September 25
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 25, 2026
Atlanta Braves
93-66 · 1st in NL East
Bats heating up
Ray Kerr
@
Miami Marlins
78-81 · 3rd in NL East, 15 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Eury Pérez · High-strikeout arm
MLB · loanDepot park · 4:10 PM PT

Team Identity

Atlanta Braves
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,140 PA.
A power-hitting, opportunistic offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be free-swinging. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Above Avg82
Contact
Above Avg66
Plate Discipline
Well Below25
Speed
Below Avg43
RISP
Above Avg70
Recent Form
Trending Up
Hit rate is up 6% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Miami Marlins
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,277 PA.
An aggressive, contact-oriented offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Below Avg27
Contact
Above Avg66
Plate Discipline
Average51
Speed
Above Avg77
RISP
Below Avg43
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 11% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Marlins bring the more aggressive profile, while Braves lean on being power-hitting.

Swing Factor

Eury Pérez strikes hitters out at a 23.8% clip (69th percentile); Braves carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Braves are trending up and Marlins are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Eury Pérez miss enough bats?
Eury Pérez strikes hitters out at a 23.8% clip (69th percentile); Braves carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · BravesEury Pérez: 23.8% K rateBraves: 20.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can Eury Pérez command the strike zone?
Braves walk in 7.4% of trips; Eury Pérez allows walks at a fairly typical rate (10.0%).
Edge · Eury PérezBraves: 7.4% walk rateEury Pérez: 10.0% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Eury Pérez limit Braves' power?
Braves rank in the 82nd percentile in extra-base production, while Eury Pérez sits in the 60th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · BravesBraves: 0.360 TB/PAEury Pérez: 0.318 TB/PA allowed (672 PA)High confidence
How do Braves handle right-handers?
Braves have produced better against right-handers this season (0.364 vs. 0.360 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Bravesvs right-handers: 0.364 TB/PA (4061 PA)overall: 0.360 TB/PAModerate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Eury Perez
Eury Perez
Miami Marlins · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.6/start
Hits allowed5.1/start
5 or fewer Strikeouts — 6 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
24% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Jakob Marsee
Jakob Marsee
Miami Marlins · 0.293 hit rate · 0.512 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 89% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
Mauricio Dubon
Mauricio Dubon
Atlanta Braves · 0.370 hit rate · 0.478 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L1010 / 10L2519 / 2512-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 10 of his last 10 games.
Agustin Ramirez
Agustin Ramirez
Miami Marlins · 0.312 hit rate · 0.531 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2512 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 91% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
Sean Murphy
Sean Murphy
Atlanta Braves · 0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L102 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 7 games.
Griffin Conine
Griffin Conine
Miami Marlins · 0.200 hit rate · 0.371 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 25
On-base rate is down 45% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 40%.
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
Atlanta Braves · 0.136 hit rate · 0.205 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 42% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 20%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

85
Mauricio Dubon
Mauricio Dubon
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
81
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
79
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
78
Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
75
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
1+ Hit
Atlanta Braves
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk

Expected Game Shape

UncertainLow confidence

Probable-starter data is incomplete, so the shape is hard to call. Braves bring stronger recent momentum. Braves bring more power.

Early edge Braves Driver Unclear without matched starters Volatility Elevated
  • At least one probable starter could not be matched to stored data.
  • Braves are trending up; Marlins are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Does Braves' power tilt the game?
Braves bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Braves power pct 82 vs Marlins 27
Is Jakob Marsee the one to watch?
Jakob Marsee enters as Marlins' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 89% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games.
0.293 hit rate · 0.512 TB/PA · 0.178 hit rate · 0.271 TB/PA
Can Sean Murphy snap out of it?
Sean Murphy has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 7 games.
0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA · 0.185 hit rate · 0.326 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-25, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.