Los Angeles Dodgers
90-58 · 1st in NL West
Offense cooling latelyRHP Emmet Sheehan · High-strikeout arm
@
Miami Marlins
73-76 · 3rd in NL East, 15 GB
Bats heating upRHP Eury Pérez · High-strikeout arm
Team Identity
Los Angeles Dodgers
Season-to-date, 148 games, 5,813 PA.
A contact-oriented, patient offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAbove Avg81
ContactElite93
Plate DisciplineElite92
SpeedBelow Avg27
RISPElite92
Recent FormTrending Down
Hit rate is down 15% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Miami Marlins
Season-to-date, 149 games, 5,864 PA.
An aggressive, contact-oriented offense that runs and pressures defenses on the bases, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerBelow Avg27
ContactAbove Avg69
Plate DisciplineAverage52
SpeedAbove Avg78
RISPBelow Avg42
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 16% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Marlins bring the more aggressive profile, while Dodgers lean on being contact-oriented.
Swing Factor
Eury Pérez strikes hitters out at a 23.9% clip (70th percentile); Dodgers carry a 19.9% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Dodgers are trending down and Marlins are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Eury Pérez miss enough bats?
Eury Pérez strikes hitters out at a 23.9% clip (70th percentile); Dodgers carry a 19.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · DodgersEury Pérez: 23.9% K rateDodgers: 19.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can Emmet Sheehan miss enough bats?
Emmet Sheehan strikes hitters out at a 26.5% clip (84th percentile); Marlins carry a 20.9% strikeout rate.
Edge · MarlinsEmmet Sheehan: 26.5% K rateMarlins: 20.9% K rateHigh confidence
Can Eury Pérez command the strike zone?
Dodgers walk in 9.7% of trips; Eury Pérez allows walks at a fairly typical rate (10.0%).
Edge · DodgersDodgers: 9.7% walk rateEury Pérez: 10.0% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Eury Pérez limit Dodgers' power?
Dodgers rank in the 81st percentile in extra-base production, while Eury Pérez sits in the 63rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · DodgersDodgers: 0.361 TB/PAEury Pérez: 0.311 TB/PA allowed (618 PA)High confidence
Can Emmet Sheehan limit Marlins' power?
Marlins rank in the 27th percentile in extra-base production, while Emmet Sheehan sits in the 9th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · MarlinsMarlins: 0.339 TB/PAEmmet Sheehan: 0.416 TB/PA allowed (445 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Emmet Sheehan
Los Angeles Dodgers · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.8/start
Hits allowed4.5/start
5+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
27% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Eury Perez
Miami Marlins · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.4/start
Hits allowed4.9/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
24% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Teoscar Hernandez
Los Angeles Dodgers · 0.357 hit rate · 0.548 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2518 / 25
On-base rate is up 73% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
Jakob Marsee
Miami Marlins · 0.295 hit rate · 0.409 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2513 / 25
Hit rate is up 75% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
Javier Sanoja
Miami Marlins · 0.341 hit rate · 0.591 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2521 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 53% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 5%.
Esteury Ruiz
Miami Marlins · 0.062 hit rate · 0.125 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L258 / 25
On-base rate is down 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 50%.
Freddie Freeman
Los Angeles Dodgers · 0.097 hit rate · 0.194 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2513 / 25
Hit rate is down 62% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 19%.
Agustin Ramirez
Miami Marlins · 0.083 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L258 / 25
On-base rate is down 62% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
80
Mookie Betts
1+ Hit
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
77
Javier Sanoja
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
74
Otto Lopez
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Liam Hicks
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
69
Jakob Marsee
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
68
Kyle Stowers
1+ Hit
Miami Marlins
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Ice cold — 2 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Marlins bring stronger recent momentum. Dodgers bring more power.
Early edge Dodgers Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 56th percentile in combined suppression.
- Dodgers are trending down; Marlins are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Does Dodgers' power tilt the game?
Dodgers bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Dodgers power pct 81 vs Marlins 27
Can Esteury Ruiz snap out of it?
Esteury Ruiz has cooled off. On-base rate is down 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 50%.
0.062 hit rate · 0.125 TB/PA · 0.189 hit rate · 0.330 TB/PA
Is Teoscar Hernandez the one to watch?
Teoscar Hernandez enters as Dodgers' hottest bat. On-base rate is up 73% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
0.357 hit rate · 0.548 TB/PA · 0.219 hit rate · 0.347 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-13, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.