Cincinnati Reds
69-77 · 5th in NL Central, 21.5 GB
Bats heating upLHP Andrew Abbott · Pitches to contact
@
Milwaukee Brewers
91-56 · 1st in NL Central
Bats heating upRHP Dustin May · Balanced starter
Team Identity
Cincinnati Reds
Season-to-date, 146 games, 5,672 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage62
ContactWell Below5
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg69
SpeedAverage58
RISPWell Below6
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 15% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Milwaukee Brewers
Season-to-date, 147 games, 5,959 PA.
A patient, opportunistic offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below19
ContactAbove Avg77
Plate DisciplineElite96
SpeedAbove Avg70
RISPElite88
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 10% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Brewers' offense is defined by being patient, and this game tests whether Reds can match it.
Swing Factor
Andrew Abbott strikes hitters out at a 17.4% clip (21st percentile); Brewers carry a 20.7% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Reds are trending up and Brewers are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Andrew Abbott miss enough bats?
Andrew Abbott strikes hitters out at a 17.4% clip (21st percentile); Brewers carry a 20.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · BrewersAndrew Abbott: 17.4% K rateBrewers: 20.7% K rateHigh confidence
Can Dustin May miss enough bats?
Dustin May strikes hitters out at a 21.8% clip (54th percentile); Reds carry a 24.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · RedsDustin May: 21.8% K rateReds: 24.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Andrew Abbott command the strike zone?
Brewers walk in 10.1% of trips; Andrew Abbott allows walks at a fairly typical rate (10.0%).
Edge · BrewersBrewers: 10.1% walk rateAndrew Abbott: 10.0% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Andrew Abbott limit Brewers' power?
Brewers rank in the 19th percentile in extra-base production, while Andrew Abbott sits in the 42nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Andrew AbbottBrewers: 0.335 TB/PAAndrew Abbott: 0.349 TB/PA allowed (690 PA)High confidence
Can Dustin May command the strike zone?
Reds walk in 9.1% of trips; Dustin May allows walks sparingly (7.7%).
Edge · Dustin MayReds: 9.1% walk rateDustin May: 7.7% walks allowedHigh confidence
Pitcher Trends
Andrew Abbott
Cincinnati Reds · 8 starts
Strikeouts3.8/start
Hits allowed5.2/start
7+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
17% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Dustin May
Milwaukee Brewers · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.8/start
Hits allowed5.1/start
5 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 6
22% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Elly De La Cruz
Cincinnati Reds · 0.395 hit rate · 0.814 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2519 / 258-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 101% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.
Dane Myers
Cincinnati Reds · 0.345 hit rate · 0.517 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 70% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 21%.
Jackson Chourio
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.347 hit rate · 0.592 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2520 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 42% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 18%.
Edwin Arroyo
Cincinnati Reds · 0.053 hit rate · 0.105 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
Hit rate is down 76% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 37%.
Luis Lara
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.167 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2518 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 37% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 30%.
Sal Frelick
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.167 hit rate · 0.208 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 252-game hit streak
On-base rate is down 43% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
85
Jackson Chourio
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
83
Elly De La Cruz
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
79
William Contreras
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
75
Brice Turang
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Sal Stewart
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
74
Nathaniel Lowe
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Reds bring more power.
Early edge Brewers Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 43rd percentile in combined suppression.
- Reds are trending up; Brewers are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Reds handle Dustin May's strikeout stuff?
Reds have been a below-average contact team while Dustin May misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Reds contact percentile: 5
Does Reds' power tilt the game?
Reds bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Reds power pct 62 vs Brewers 19
Is Elly De La Cruz the one to watch?
Elly De La Cruz enters as Reds' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 101% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.
0.395 hit rate · 0.814 TB/PA · 0.229 hit rate · 0.405 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-11, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.