St. Louis Cardinals
77-82 · 4th in NL Central, 23 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Michael McGreevy · Pitches to contact
@
Milwaukee Brewers
100-59 · 1st in NL Central
Offense cooling latelyLHP Robert Gasser · Command specialist
Team Identity
St. Louis Cardinals
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,234 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerWell Below16
ContactAverage52
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg32
SpeedAverage60
RISPAverage50
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 26% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Milwaukee Brewers
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,451 PA.
An opportunistic, patient offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be light on power. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerWell Below20
ContactAbove Avg73
Plate DisciplineElite95
SpeedAbove Avg68
RISPElite98
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 17% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Brewers' offense is defined by being opportunistic, and this game tests whether Cardinals can match it.
Swing Factor
Michael McGreevy strikes hitters out at a 16.5% clip (16th percentile); Brewers carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Cardinals are trending down and Brewers are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Michael McGreevy miss enough bats?
Michael McGreevy strikes hitters out at a 16.5% clip (16th percentile); Brewers carry a 21.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · BrewersMichael McGreevy: 16.5% K rateBrewers: 21.0% K rateHigh confidence
Can Michael McGreevy command the strike zone?
Brewers walk in 10.1% of trips; Michael McGreevy allows walks sparingly (6.7%).
Edge · Michael McGreevyBrewers: 10.1% walk rateMichael McGreevy: 6.7% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Robert Gasser limit Cardinals' power?
Cardinals rank in the 16th percentile in extra-base production, while Robert Gasser sits in the 39th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Robert GasserCardinals: 0.326 TB/PARobert Gasser: 0.356 TB/PA allowed (452 PA)High confidence
Can Robert Gasser command the strike zone?
Cardinals walk in 8.1% of trips; Robert Gasser allows walks sparingly (7.3%).
Edge · Robert GasserCardinals: 8.1% walk rateRobert Gasser: 7.3% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Cardinals handle left-handers?
Cardinals have produced better against left-handers this season (0.335 vs. 0.326 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Cardinalsvs left-handers: 0.335 TB/PA (1872 PA)overall: 0.326 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Michael McGreevy
St. Louis Cardinals · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.0/start
Hits allowed5.6/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
16% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Robert Gasser
Milwaukee Brewers · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.5/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 5 of last 6
21% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Jose Fermin
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.381 hit rate · 0.476 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2516 / 25
Hit rate is up 83% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
Cooper Pratt
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.310 hit rate · 0.310 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 25
Hit rate is up 40% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
Sal Frelick
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.182 hit rate · 0.227 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is up 14% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 0%.
Jordan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.073 hit rate · 0.073 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 83% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 37%.
Bryan Torres
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.000 hit rate · 0.000 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 100% over his prior baseline, with hits in 0 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Thomas Saggese
St. Louis Cardinals · 0.111 hit rate · 0.111 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L104 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 70% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
82
Brice Turang
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
76
William Contreras
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Joey Ortiz
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
70
Leo Bernal
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
69
Garrett Mitchell
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
68
JJ Wetherholt
1+ Hit
St. Louis Cardinals
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Contact-heavyModerate confidence
Offense likely comes from stringing hits together.
Early edge Brewers Driver Traffic and situational hitting Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 42nd percentile in combined suppression.
- Cardinals are trending down; Brewers are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Is Jose Fermin the one to watch?
Jose Fermin enters as Cardinals' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 83% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
0.381 hit rate · 0.476 TB/PA · 0.208 hit rate · 0.301 TB/PA
Can Jordan Walker snap out of it?
Jordan Walker has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 83% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 37%.
0.073 hit rate · 0.073 TB/PA · 0.252 hit rate · 0.436 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-25, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.