Cincinnati Reds
69-79 · 5th in NL Central, 23.5 GB
Bats heating upRHP Chase Burns · Elite strikeout stuff
@
Milwaukee Brewers
93-56 · 1st in NL Central
Bats heating upLHP Robert Gasser · Command specialist
Team Identity
Cincinnati Reds
Season-to-date, 148 games, 5,749 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage62
ContactWell Below3
Plate DisciplineAverage66
SpeedAverage60
RISPWell Below7
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 15% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Milwaukee Brewers
Season-to-date, 149 games, 6,053 PA.
A patient, opportunistic offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be light on power. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerWell Below24
ContactAbove Avg79
Plate DisciplineElite96
SpeedAbove Avg70
RISPElite96
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 25% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Brewers' offense is defined by being patient, and this game tests whether Reds can match it.
Swing Factor
Chase Burns strikes hitters out at a 27.7% clip (89th percentile); Brewers carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Reds are trending up and Brewers are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Chase Burns miss enough bats?
Chase Burns strikes hitters out at a 27.7% clip (89th percentile); Brewers carry a 20.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · BrewersChase Burns: 27.7% K rateBrewers: 20.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Robert Gasser miss enough bats?
Robert Gasser strikes hitters out at a 21.4% clip (51st percentile); Reds carry a 24.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · RedsRobert Gasser: 21.4% K rateReds: 24.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Chase Burns command the strike zone?
Brewers walk in 10.1% of trips; Chase Burns allows walks at a fairly typical rate (8.0%).
Edge · Chase BurnsBrewers: 10.1% walk rateChase Burns: 8.0% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Chase Burns limit Brewers' power?
Brewers rank in the 24th percentile in extra-base production, while Chase Burns sits in the 67th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Chase BurnsBrewers: 0.340 TB/PAChase Burns: 0.304 TB/PA allowed (635 PA)High confidence
Can Robert Gasser limit Reds' power?
Reds rank in the 62nd percentile in extra-base production, while Robert Gasser sits in the 29th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · RedsReds: 0.341 TB/PARobert Gasser: 0.374 TB/PA allowed (406 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Chase Burns
Cincinnati Reds · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.5/start
Hits allowed4.8/start
5+ Strikeouts — 6 of last 66+ Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
28% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Robert Gasser
Milwaukee Brewers · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.9/start
Hits allowed5.0/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
21% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Jackson Chourio
Milwaukee Brewers · 1+ Hit · Score 94
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2520 / 255-game hit streak
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No standout red flags in recent form
Elly De La Cruz
Cincinnati Reds · 0.386 hit rate · 0.818 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2520 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 102% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.
Eugenio Suarez
Cincinnati Reds · 0.226 hit rate · 0.548 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 58% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 19%.
Sal Frelick
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.130 hit rate · 0.174 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2510 / 25
On-base rate is down 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games.
Luis Lara
Milwaukee Brewers · 0.172 hit rate · 0.172 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2519 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is down 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 31%.
JJ Bleday
Cincinnati Reds · 0.163 hit rate · 0.279 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2510 / 25
On-base rate is down 26% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 30%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
94
Jackson Chourio
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
79
Brice Turang
1+ Hit
Milwaukee Brewers
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
79
Elly De La Cruz
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
76
Nathaniel Lowe
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
73
Sal Stewart
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
68
Dane Myers
1+ Hit
Cincinnati Reds
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Starter-drivenModerate confidence
Runs may be at a premium if the starters hold form. Reds bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.
Early edge Brewers Driver Pitching and command Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 60th percentile in combined suppression.
- Reds are trending up; Brewers are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Reds handle Robert Gasser's strikeout stuff?
Reds have been a below-average contact team while Robert Gasser misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Reds contact percentile: 3
Does Reds' power tilt the game?
Reds bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Reds power pct 62 vs Brewers 24
Is Elly De La Cruz the one to watch?
Elly De La Cruz enters as Reds' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 102% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.
0.386 hit rate · 0.818 TB/PA · 0.229 hit rate · 0.404 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-13, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.