New York Yankees
88-63 · 2nd in AL East, 3.5 GB
Bats heating upLHP Carlos Rodón · High-strikeout arm
@
Minnesota Twins
70-81 · 4th in AL Central, 7 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Zebby Matthews · Command specialist
Team Identity
New York Yankees
Season-to-date, 150 games, 5,811 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg79
ContactWell Below11
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg72
SpeedAverage63
RISPBelow Avg32
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 9% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Minnesota Twins
Season-to-date, 150 games, 5,841 PA.
An opportunistic offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAverage63
ContactAverage58
Plate DisciplineBelow Avg41
SpeedBelow Avg27
RISPAbove Avg84
Recent FormTrending Down
Hit rate is down 19% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Twins bring the more opportunistic profile, while Yankees lean on being power-hitting.
Swing Factor
Yankees rank in the 79th percentile in extra-base production, while Zebby Matthews sits in the 13th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Yankees are trending up and Twins are trending down over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Zebby Matthews limit Yankees' power?
Yankees rank in the 79th percentile in extra-base production, while Zebby Matthews sits in the 13th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · YankeesYankees: 0.349 TB/PAZebby Matthews: 0.405 TB/PA allowed (511 PA)High confidence
Can Zebby Matthews miss enough bats?
Zebby Matthews strikes hitters out at a 19.4% clip (36th percentile); Yankees carry a 23.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · YankeesZebby Matthews: 19.4% K rateYankees: 23.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Carlos Rodón miss enough bats?
Carlos Rodón strikes hitters out at a 25.9% clip (81st percentile); Twins carry a 20.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · TwinsCarlos Rodón: 25.9% K rateTwins: 20.4% K rateHigh confidence
How do Twins handle left-handers?
Twins have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.309 vs. 0.348 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Carlos Rodónvs left-handers: 0.309 TB/PA (1767 PA)overall: 0.348 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Carlos Rodón limit Twins' power?
Twins rank in the 63rd percentile in extra-base production, while Carlos Rodón sits in the 92nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Carlos RodónTwins: 0.348 TB/PACarlos Rodón: 0.243 TB/PA allowed (301 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Carlos Rodon
New York Yankees · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.5/start
Hits allowed3.2/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 6 of last 65+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
26% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Zebby Matthews
Minnesota Twins · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.0/start
Hits allowed4.9/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
19% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Ben Rice
New York Yankees · 0.317 hit rate · 0.537 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2517 / 254-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 51% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
Anthony Volpe
New York Yankees · 0.267 hit rate · 0.467 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 79% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 7%.
Spencer Jones
New York Yankees · 0.325 hit rate · 0.400 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2519 / 25
Hit rate is up 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Ryan Jeffers
Minnesota Twins · 0.118 hit rate · 0.235 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2513 / 25
Hit rate is down 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 21%.
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees · 0.182 hit rate · 0.318 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
On-base rate is down 37% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 50%.
George Lombard Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.105 hit rate · 0.237 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2513 / 25
Hit rate is down 52% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
78
Ben Rice
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Cody Bellinger
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
68
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
67
Luke Keaschall
1+ Hit
Minnesota Twins
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
66
Josh Bell
1+ Hit
Minnesota Twins
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
66
Brooks Lee
1+ Hit
Minnesota Twins
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Yankees bring stronger recent momentum. Yankees bring more power.
Early edge Yankees Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 55th percentile in combined suppression.
- Yankees are trending up; Twins are trending down.
Storylines to Watch
Can Yankees handle Zebby Matthews's strikeout stuff?
Yankees have been a below-average contact team while Zebby Matthews misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Yankees contact percentile: 11
Is Ben Rice the one to watch?
Ben Rice enters as Yankees' hottest bat. On-base rate is up 51% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
0.317 hit rate · 0.537 TB/PA · 0.215 hit rate · 0.440 TB/PA
Can Ryan Jeffers snap out of it?
Ryan Jeffers has cooled off. Hit rate is down 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 21%.
0.118 hit rate · 0.235 TB/PA · 0.219 hit rate · 0.408 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-16, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.