Sports Today Friday, September 25
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 25, 2026
Texas Rangers
79-80 · 2nd in AL West
Offense cooling lately
RHP Jacob deGrom · Elite strikeout stuff · plus control
@
Minnesota Twins
75-84 · 3rd in AL Central, 8 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Joe Ryan · High-strikeout arm · plus control
MLB · Target Field · 5:10 PM PT

Team Identity

Texas Rangers
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,095 PA.
An opportunistic offense that cashes in scoring chances. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average47
Contact
Below Avg42
Plate Discipline
Average55
Speed
Below Avg35
RISP
Above Avg77
Recent Form
Trending Down
Total bases per PA is down 21% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
Minnesota Twins
Season-to-date, 159 games, 6,194 PA.
An opportunistic offense that cashes in scoring chances, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Average63
Contact
Average62
Plate Discipline
Below Avg29
Speed
Below Avg28
RISP
Above Avg83
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 38% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Twins' offense is defined by being opportunistic, and this game tests whether Rangers can match it.

Swing Factor

Jacob deGrom strikes hitters out at a 29.8% clip (95th percentile); Twins carry a 20.5% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Rangers are trending down and Twins are trending down over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Jacob deGrom miss enough bats?
Jacob deGrom strikes hitters out at a 29.8% clip (95th percentile); Twins carry a 20.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · TwinsJacob deGrom: 29.8% K rateTwins: 20.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Joe Ryan miss enough bats?
Joe Ryan strikes hitters out at a 24.6% clip (74th percentile); Rangers carry a 22.3% strikeout rate.
Edge · Joe RyanJoe Ryan: 24.6% K rateRangers: 22.3% K rateHigh confidence
Can Jacob deGrom command the strike zone?
Twins walk in 8.0% of trips; Jacob deGrom allows walks sparingly (6.5%).
Edge · Jacob deGromTwins: 8.0% walk rateJacob deGrom: 6.5% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Joe Ryan limit Rangers' power?
Rangers rank in the 47th percentile in extra-base production, while Joe Ryan sits in the 28th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · RangersRangers: 0.341 TB/PAJoe Ryan: 0.374 TB/PA allowed (615 PA)High confidence
How do Twins handle right-handers?
Twins have produced better against right-handers this season (0.363 vs. 0.347 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Twinsvs right-handers: 0.363 TB/PA (4269 PA)overall: 0.347 TB/PAModerate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Jacob deGrom
Jacob deGrom
Texas Rangers · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts6.5/start
Hits allowed3.4/start
7+ Strikeouts — 4 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
30% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Joe Ryan
Joe Ryan
Minnesota Twins · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.8/start
Hits allowed6.4/start
7+ Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
25% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Walker Jenkins
Walker Jenkins
Minnesota Twins · 0.364 hit rate · 0.636 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L107 / 10L2511 / 217-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 364% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 6%.
Brooks Lee
Brooks Lee
Minnesota Twins · 0.333 hit rate · 0.429 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L109 / 10L2518 / 258-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 50% over his prior baseline, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 12%.
Danny Jansen
Danny Jansen
Texas Rangers · 0.182 hit rate · 0.242 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L106 / 10L2513 / 25
On-base rate is up 43% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
Ryan Jeffers
Ryan Jeffers
Minnesota Twins · 0.074 hit rate · 0.074 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 81% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Ezequiel Duran
Ezequiel Duran
Texas Rangers · 0.125 hit rate · 0.150 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 62% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 28%.
Elias Diaz
Elias Diaz
Texas Rangers · 0.091 hit rate · 0.136 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 60% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 27%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

80
Luke Keaschall
Luke Keaschall
1+ Hit
Minnesota Twins
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
77
Josh Jung
Josh Jung
1+ Hit
Texas Rangers
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
75
Brooks Lee
Brooks Lee
1+ Hit
Minnesota Twins
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Corey Seager
Corey Seager
1+ Hit
Texas Rangers
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 2 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
69
Josh Bell
Josh Bell
1+ Hit
Minnesota Twins
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
65
Wyatt Langford
Wyatt Langford
1+ Hit
Texas Rangers
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Twins bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.

Early edge Rangers Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Moderate
  • Both probable starters grade around the 66th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Rangers are trending down; Twins are trending down.

Storylines to Watch

Is Walker Jenkins the one to watch?
Walker Jenkins enters as Twins' hottest bat. Hit rate is up 364% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 6%.
0.364 hit rate · 0.636 TB/PA · 0.078 hit rate · 0.176 TB/PA
Can Ryan Jeffers snap out of it?
Ryan Jeffers has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 81% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
0.074 hit rate · 0.074 TB/PA · 0.212 hit rate · 0.395 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-25, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.