Sports Today Wednesday, September 16
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 16, 2026
Baltimore Orioles
74-78 · 5th in AL East, 18 GB
Offense cooling lately
RHP Chris Bassitt · Pitches to contact
@
New York Mets
69-82 · 5th in NL East, 19.5 GB
Bats heating up
RHP Robert Stock · Balanced starter
MLB · Citi Field · 4:10 PM PT

Team Identity

Baltimore Orioles
Season-to-date, 151 games, 5,865 PA.
A patient offense that works counts and draws walks, though it can be station-to-station. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Below Avg43
Contact
Well Below21
Plate Discipline
Elite86
Speed
Well Below17
RISP
Average54
Recent Form
Trending Down
Walk rate is down 12% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
New York Mets
Season-to-date, 150 games, 5,809 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Average51
Contact
Below Avg30
Plate Discipline
Average47
Speed
Below Avg27
RISP
Below Avg41
Recent Form
Trending Up
Walk rate is up 22% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Orioles' offense is defined by being patient, and this game tests whether Mets can match it.

Swing Factor

Chris Bassitt strikes hitters out at a 15.5% clip (11th percentile); Mets carry a 21.7% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Orioles are trending down and Mets are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Chris Bassitt miss enough bats?
Chris Bassitt strikes hitters out at a 15.5% clip (11th percentile); Mets carry a 21.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · MetsChris Bassitt: 15.5% K rateMets: 21.7% K rateHigh confidence
Can Robert Stock miss enough bats?
Robert Stock strikes hitters out at a 19.0% clip (33rd percentile); Orioles carry a 24.0% strikeout rate.
Edge · OriolesRobert Stock: 19.0% K rateOrioles: 24.0% K rateModerate confidence
Can Robert Stock command the strike zone?
Orioles walk in 9.5% of trips; Robert Stock allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.8%).
Edge · OriolesOrioles: 9.5% walk rateRobert Stock: 9.8% walks allowedModerate confidence
Can Chris Bassitt limit Mets' power?
Mets rank in the 51st percentile in extra-base production, while Chris Bassitt sits in the 32nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · MetsMets: 0.343 TB/PAChris Bassitt: 0.369 TB/PA allowed (426 PA)High confidence
Can Robert Stock limit Orioles' power?
Orioles rank in the 43rd percentile in extra-base production, while Robert Stock sits in the 51st percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Robert StockOrioles: 0.337 TB/PARobert Stock: 0.333 TB/PA allowed (153 PA)Moderate confidence

Pitcher Trends

Chris Bassitt
Chris Bassitt
Baltimore Orioles · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.0/start
Hits allowed6.0/start
5+ Hits Allowed — 6 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
15% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Robert Stock
Robert Stock
New York Mets · 7 starts
SP
Strikeouts4.1/start
Hits allowed5.3/start
4 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
19% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

A.J. Ewing
A.J. Ewing
New York Mets · 0.342 hit rate · 0.632 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2516 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 110% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
Brett Baty
Brett Baty
New York Mets · 0.273 hit rate · 0.682 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 131% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
Coby Mayo
Coby Mayo
Baltimore Orioles · 0.220 hit rate · 0.537 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2520 / 255-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 35% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 22%.
Samuel Basallo
Samuel Basallo
Baltimore Orioles · 0.130 hit rate · 0.130 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L258 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 65% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 8 games.
Jackson Holliday
Jackson Holliday
Baltimore Orioles · 0.158 hit rate · 0.184 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2512 / 25
On-base rate is down 48% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 26%.
Leody Taveras
Leody Taveras
Baltimore Orioles · 0.200 hit rate · 0.250 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is down 29% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 7 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 45%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

75
Francisco Lindor
Francisco Lindor
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
74
A.J. Ewing
A.J. Ewing
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso
1+ Hit
Baltimore Orioles
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Carson Benge
Carson Benge
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
70
Bo Bichette
Bo Bichette
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Mets bring stronger recent momentum.

Early edge Orioles Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 28th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Orioles are trending down; Mets are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Is A.J. Ewing the one to watch?
A.J. Ewing enters as Mets' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 110% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
0.342 hit rate · 0.632 TB/PA · 0.205 hit rate · 0.301 TB/PA
Can Samuel Basallo snap out of it?
Samuel Basallo has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 65% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 8 games.
0.130 hit rate · 0.130 TB/PA · 0.200 hit rate · 0.370 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-16, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.