Philadelphia Phillies
84-68 · 2nd in NL East, 4.5 GB
Offense cooling latelyRHP Aaron Nola · High-strikeout arm
@
New York Mets
69-83 · 5th in NL East, 19.5 GB
Bats heating upRHP Nolan McLean · High-strikeout arm
Team Identity
Philadelphia Phillies
Season-to-date, 152 games, 5,868 PA.
An opportunistic, aggressive offense that cashes in scoring chances. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAverage60
ContactAverage48
Plate DisciplineAverage48
SpeedAbove Avg72
RISPElite93
Recent FormTrending Down
Hit rate is down 4% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
New York Mets
Season-to-date, 152 games, 5,898 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage49
ContactBelow Avg31
Plate DisciplineAverage47
SpeedBelow Avg25
RISPBelow Avg38
Recent FormTrending Up
Walk rate is up 13% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Phillies' offense is defined by being opportunistic, and this game tests whether Mets can match it.
Swing Factor
Mets rank in the 49th percentile in extra-base production, while Aaron Nola sits in the 7th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Momentum
Phillies are trending down and Mets are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Aaron Nola limit Mets' power?
Mets rank in the 49th percentile in extra-base production, while Aaron Nola sits in the 7th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · MetsMets: 0.342 TB/PAAaron Nola: 0.429 TB/PA allowed (706 PA)High confidence
Can Aaron Nola miss enough bats?
Aaron Nola strikes hitters out at a 23.4% clip (66th percentile); Mets carry a 21.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · Aaron NolaAaron Nola: 23.4% K rateMets: 21.7% K rateHigh confidence
Can Nolan McLean miss enough bats?
Nolan McLean strikes hitters out at a 25.8% clip (81st percentile); Phillies carry a 21.3% strikeout rate.
Edge · Nolan McLeanNolan McLean: 25.8% K ratePhillies: 21.3% K rateHigh confidence
Can Nolan McLean limit Phillies' power?
Phillies rank in the 60th percentile in extra-base production, while Nolan McLean sits in the 76th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Nolan McLeanPhillies: 0.346 TB/PANolan McLean: 0.289 TB/PA allowed (713 PA)High confidence
How do Mets handle right-handers?
Mets have produced better against right-handers this season (0.348 vs. 0.342 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Metsvs right-handers: 0.348 TB/PA (4216 PA)overall: 0.342 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Aaron Nola
Philadelphia Phillies · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.1/start
Hits allowed5.0/start
7+ Strikeouts — 3 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
23% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Nolan McLean
New York Mets · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.2/start
Hits allowed5.0/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
26% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
A.J. Ewing
New York Mets · 0.372 hit rate · 0.558 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
Brett Baty
New York Mets · 0.269 hit rate · 0.577 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L109 / 10L2516 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 94% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 12%.
Alec Bohm
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.270 hit rate · 0.378 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L107 / 10L2517 / 254-game hit streak
On-base rate is up 44% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games.
Brandon Marsh
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.130 hit rate · 0.174 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L103 / 10L2510 / 25
On-base rate is down 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games.
Bryan De La Cruz
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.167 hit rate · 0.167 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 64% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 6 games.
Bryce Harper
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.186 hit rate · 0.326 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L106 / 10L2518 / 25
On-base rate is down 33% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33%.
Players Positioned to Succeed
79
Juan Soto
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
76
Francisco Lindor
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Elevated recent strikeout rate
75
A.J. Ewing
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
72
Bo Bichette
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Strong recent plate-appearance volume
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Luis Arraez
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Low recent strikeout rate
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
71
Alec Bohm
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Recent contact results are improving
Main risk
Lineup not yet posted
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Mets bring stronger recent momentum.
Early edge Mets Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 54th percentile in combined suppression.
- Phillies are trending down; Mets are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Is A.J. Ewing the one to watch?
A.J. Ewing enters as Mets' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
0.372 hit rate · 0.558 TB/PA · 0.206 hit rate · 0.307 TB/PA
Can Brandon Marsh snap out of it?
Brandon Marsh has cooled off. On-base rate is down 57% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 9 games.
0.130 hit rate · 0.174 TB/PA · 0.241 hit rate · 0.378 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-17, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.