Philadelphia Phillies
85-68 · 2nd in NL East, 4 GB
Offense cooling latelyLHP Tim Mayza · High-strikeout arm · plus control
@
New York Mets
69-84 · 5th in NL East, 20 GB
Bats heating upLHP Zac Thornton · Pitches to contact
Team Identity
Philadelphia Phillies
Season-to-date, 153 games, 5,908 PA.
An opportunistic, aggressive offense that cashes in scoring chances. The offense has cooled off recently.
PowerAverage59
ContactAverage46
Plate DisciplineAverage47
SpeedAbove Avg72
RISPElite93
Recent FormTrending Down
Total bases per PA is down 8% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
New York Mets
Season-to-date, 153 games, 5,933 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage47
ContactBelow Avg27
Plate DisciplineAverage47
SpeedWell Below22
RISPBelow Avg37
Recent FormTrending Up
Walk rate is up 21% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Phillies' offense is defined by being opportunistic, and this game tests whether Mets can match it.
Swing Factor
Tim Mayza strikes hitters out at a 23.8% clip (69th percentile); Mets carry a 21.7% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Phillies are trending down and Mets are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Tim Mayza miss enough bats?
Tim Mayza strikes hitters out at a 23.8% clip (69th percentile); Mets carry a 21.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · Tim MayzaTim Mayza: 23.8% K rateMets: 21.7% K rateModerate confidence
Can Zac Thornton limit Phillies' power?
Phillies rank in the 59th percentile in extra-base production, while Zac Thornton sits in the 26th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · PhilliesPhillies: 0.345 TB/PAZac Thornton: 0.377 TB/PA allowed (300 PA)High confidence
Can Zac Thornton miss enough bats?
Zac Thornton strikes hitters out at a 18.3% clip (29th percentile); Phillies carry a 21.2% strikeout rate.
Edge · PhilliesZac Thornton: 18.3% K ratePhillies: 21.2% K rateHigh confidence
Can Tim Mayza limit Mets' power?
Mets rank in the 47th percentile in extra-base production, while Tim Mayza sits in the 63rd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Tim MayzaMets: 0.341 TB/PATim Mayza: 0.313 TB/PA allowed (265 PA)Moderate confidence
How do Mets handle left-handers?
Mets have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.329 vs. 0.341 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Tim Mayzavs left-handers: 0.329 TB/PA (1684 PA)overall: 0.341 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Zac Thornton
New York Mets · 8 starts
Strikeouts4.1/start
Hits allowed6.0/start
6+ Hits Allowed — 5 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
18% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
A.J. Ewing
New York Mets · 0.318 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L107 / 10L2517 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 62% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 18%.
Brett Baty
New York Mets · 0.214 hit rate · 0.393 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 28% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 14%.
Justin Crawford
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.276 hit rate · 0.448 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2517 / 258-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 46% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 10%.
Brandon Marsh
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.160 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L104 / 10L2511 / 25
On-base rate is down 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.
Francisco Alvarez
New York Mets · 0.133 hit rate · 0.133 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 62% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 7 games.
Bryan De La Cruz
Philadelphia Phillies · 0.200 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 55% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
81
Bo Bichette
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
80
Juan Soto
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
79
Francisco Lindor
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
74
A.J. Ewing
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
71
Carson Benge
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
69
Luis Arraez
1+ Hit
Philadelphia Phillies
Why it stands out
Batting 4th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
BalancedLow confidence
Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Mets bring stronger recent momentum. Phillies bring more power.
Early edge Phillies Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
- Both probable starters grade around the 57th percentile in combined suppression.
- Phillies are trending down; Mets are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Mets handle Tim Mayza's strikeout stuff?
Mets have been a below-average contact team while Tim Mayza misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Mets contact percentile: 27
Is A.J. Ewing the one to watch?
A.J. Ewing enters as Mets' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 62% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 10 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 18%.
0.318 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA · 0.208 hit rate · 0.309 TB/PA
Can Brandon Marsh snap out of it?
Brandon Marsh has cooled off. On-base rate is down 47% over his prior baseline, with hits in 4 of his last 9 games.
0.160 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA · 0.240 hit rate · 0.376 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-18, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.