New York Mets
68-78 · 4th in NL East, 17.5 GB
Bats heating upRHP Nolan McLean · High-strikeout arm
@
New York Yankees
84-62 · 2nd in AL East, 3 GB
Bats heating upLHP Carlos Rodón · High-strikeout arm
Team Identity
New York Mets
Season-to-date, 146 games, 5,657 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage50
ContactBelow Avg32
Plate DisciplineAverage47
SpeedBelow Avg28
RISPBelow Avg41
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 18% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
New York Yankees
Season-to-date, 146 games, 5,673 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg77
ContactWell Below11
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg72
SpeedAverage65
RISPBelow Avg29
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 24% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Yankees' offense is defined by being power-hitting, and this game tests whether Mets can match it.
Swing Factor
Nolan McLean strikes hitters out at a 26.0% clip (80th percentile); Yankees carry a 23.5% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Mets are trending up and Yankees are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Nolan McLean miss enough bats?
Nolan McLean strikes hitters out at a 26.0% clip (80th percentile); Yankees carry a 23.5% strikeout rate.
Edge · Nolan McLeanNolan McLean: 26.0% K rateYankees: 23.5% K rateHigh confidence
Can Carlos Rodón miss enough bats?
Carlos Rodón strikes hitters out at a 25.2% clip (77th percentile); Mets carry a 21.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · Carlos RodónCarlos Rodón: 25.2% K rateMets: 21.7% K rateModerate confidence
Can Carlos Rodón limit Mets' power?
Mets rank in the 50th percentile in extra-base production, while Carlos Rodón sits in the 90th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Carlos RodónMets: 0.343 TB/PACarlos Rodón: 0.252 TB/PA allowed (278 PA)Moderate confidence
Can Nolan McLean command the strike zone?
Yankees walk in 9.3% of trips; Nolan McLean allows walks at a fairly typical rate (9.4%).
Edge · YankeesYankees: 9.3% walk rateNolan McLean: 9.4% walks allowedHigh confidence
How do Mets handle left-handers?
Mets have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.335 vs. 0.343 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Carlos Rodónvs left-handers: 0.335 TB/PA (1613 PA)overall: 0.343 TB/PAModerate confidence
Pitcher Trends
Nolan McLean
New York Mets · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.5/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 3 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
26% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Carlos Rodon
New York Yankees · 8 starts
Strikeouts5.4/start
Hits allowed3.4/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
25% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Heliot Ramos
New York Yankees · 0.267 hit rate · 0.667 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2510 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 311% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 13%.
Brett Baty
New York Mets · 0.300 hit rate · 0.750 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 256-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 155% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 8 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
A.J. Ewing
New York Mets · 0.350 hit rate · 0.500 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L108 / 10L2515 / 256-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 72% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 12%.
Trent Grisham
New York Yankees · 0.105 hit rate · 0.105 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L103 / 10L2513 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 68% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 26%.
Carson Benge
New York Mets · 0.156 hit rate · 0.178 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L106 / 10L2518 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 53% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 10 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 27%.
George Lombard Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.120 hit rate · 0.280 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L105 / 10L2514 / 25
Hit rate is down 45% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
80
Cody Bellinger
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
78
Francisco Lindor
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
77
Bo Bichette
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
77
Ben Rice
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
68
Carson Benge
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 2 hits in the last 25 plate appearances
68
A.J. Ewing
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 8th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Yankees bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.
Early edge Yankees Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 70th percentile in combined suppression.
- Mets are trending up; Yankees are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Yankees handle Nolan McLean's strikeout stuff?
Yankees have been a below-average contact team while Nolan McLean misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Yankees contact percentile: 11
Is Heliot Ramos the one to watch?
Heliot Ramos enters as Yankees' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 311% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 6 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 13%.
0.267 hit rate · 0.667 TB/PA · 0.095 hit rate · 0.162 TB/PA
Can Mets handle Carlos Rodón's strikeout stuff?
Mets have been a below-average contact team while Carlos Rodón misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Mets contact percentile: 32
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-11, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.