New York Mets
69-79 · 4th in NL East, 18.5 GB
Bats heating upRHP Christian Scott · Elite strikeout stuff
@
New York Yankees
85-63 · 2nd in AL East, 4 GB
Bats heating upRHP Cam Schlittler · Elite strikeout stuff · plus control
Team Identity
New York Mets
Season-to-date, 148 games, 5,738 PA.
A balanced offense without a standout strength or glaring weakness. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAverage57
ContactBelow Avg31
Plate DisciplineAverage48
SpeedBelow Avg28
RISPBelow Avg43
Recent FormTrending Up
Total bases per PA is up 26% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
New York Yankees
Season-to-date, 148 games, 5,744 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
PowerAbove Avg78
ContactWell Below11
Plate DisciplineAbove Avg74
SpeedAverage64
RISPBelow Avg29
Recent FormTrending Up
Hit rate is up 22% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
What This Game Is About
Biggest Advantage
Yankees' offense is defined by being power-hitting, and this game tests whether Mets can match it.
Swing Factor
Christian Scott strikes hitters out at a 27.5% clip (88th percentile); Yankees carry a 23.4% strikeout rate.
Momentum
Mets are trending up and Yankees are trending up over their last 10 games.
Key Matchups
Can Christian Scott miss enough bats?
Christian Scott strikes hitters out at a 27.5% clip (88th percentile); Yankees carry a 23.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · Christian ScottChristian Scott: 27.5% K rateYankees: 23.4% K rateHigh confidence
Can Cam Schlittler miss enough bats?
Cam Schlittler strikes hitters out at a 30.9% clip (96th percentile); Mets carry a 21.7% strikeout rate.
Edge · Cam SchlittlerCam Schlittler: 30.9% K rateMets: 21.7% K rateHigh confidence
Can Cam Schlittler limit Mets' power?
Mets rank in the 57th percentile in extra-base production, while Cam Schlittler sits in the 80th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Cam SchlittlerMets: 0.345 TB/PACam Schlittler: 0.281 TB/PA allowed (709 PA)High confidence
Can Christian Scott command the strike zone?
Yankees walk in 9.2% of trips; Christian Scott allows walks at a fairly typical rate (10.1%).
Edge · YankeesYankees: 9.2% walk rateChristian Scott: 10.1% walks allowedHigh confidence
Can Christian Scott limit Yankees' power?
Yankees rank in the 78th percentile in extra-base production, while Christian Scott sits in the 70th percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · YankeesYankees: 0.348 TB/PAChristian Scott: 0.300 TB/PA allowed (437 PA)High confidence
Pitcher Trends
Christian Scott
New York Mets · 8 starts
Strikeouts6.0/start
Hits allowed4.6/start
6+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 65 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 6
27% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Cam Schlittler
New York Yankees · 8 starts
Strikeouts7.9/start
Hits allowed3.2/start
7+ Strikeouts — 5 of last 64 or fewer Hits Allowed — 5 of last 6
31% K ratePer-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Player Trends
Brett Baty
New York Mets · 0.316 hit rate · 0.789 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L55 / 5L107 / 10L2515 / 256-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 169% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
A.J. Ewing
New York Mets · 0.325 hit rate · 0.525 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2515 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 72% over his prior baseline, with hits in 7 of his last 9 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 15%.
Spencer Jones
New York Yankees · 0.333 hit rate · 0.476 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2519 / 254-game hit streak
Hit rate is up 62% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Jose Caballero
New York Yankees · 0.059 hit rate · 0.059 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 4 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 29%.
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees · 0.200 hit rate · 0.200 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L106 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 53% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 4 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 40%.
George Lombard Jr.
New York Yankees · 0.088 hit rate · 0.206 TB/PA
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L104 / 10L2513 / 25
Hit rate is down 60% over his prior baseline, with hits in 3 of his last 8 games.
Players Positioned to Succeed
82
Francisco Lindor
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
81
Ben Rice
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
80
Juan Soto
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
80
Cody Bellinger
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
Bo Bichette
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 3rd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
74
A.J. Ewing
1+ Hit
New York Mets
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
Expected Game Shape
Power-orientedModerate confidence
Both lineups can change the game with one swing. Yankees bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.
Early edge Yankees Driver Extra-base damage Volatility Moderate
- Both probable starters grade around the 75th percentile in combined suppression.
- Mets are trending up; Yankees are trending up.
Storylines to Watch
Can Mets handle Cam Schlittler's strikeout stuff?
Mets have been a below-average contact team while Cam Schlittler misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Mets contact percentile: 31
Can Yankees handle Christian Scott's strikeout stuff?
Yankees have been a below-average contact team while Christian Scott misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Yankees contact percentile: 11
Is Brett Baty the one to watch?
Brett Baty enters as Mets' hottest bat. Total bases per PA is up 169% over his prior baseline, with hits in 6 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 11%.
0.316 hit rate · 0.789 TB/PA · 0.192 hit rate · 0.294 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-13, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.