Sports Today Tuesday, September 22
← Back to today’s slate MLB matchup · September 22, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays
95-60 · 1st in AL East
Offense cooling lately
RHP Drew Rasmussen · High-strikeout arm · plus control
@
New York Yankees
89-66 · 2nd in AL East, 6 GB
Bats heating up
LHP Max Fried · High-strikeout arm
MLB · Yankee Stadium · 4:05 PM PT

Team Identity

Tampa Bay Rays
Season-to-date, 155 games, 6,109 PA.
A contact-oriented, opportunistic offense that puts the ball in play and avoids empty at-bats, though it can be free-swinging. The offense has cooled off recently.
Power
Below Avg33
Contact
Elite94
Plate Discipline
Below Avg30
Speed
Above Avg68
RISP
Above Avg79
Recent Form
Trending Down
Hit rate is down 15% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.
New York Yankees
Season-to-date, 155 games, 6,025 PA.
A power-hitting, patient offense that does damage on extra-base hits, though it can be strikeout-prone. The bats have been heating up lately.
Power
Above Avg80
Contact
Well Below13
Plate Discipline
Above Avg73
Speed
Average63
RISP
Below Avg32
Recent Form
Trending Up
Total bases per PA is up 13% over the team's last 10 games versus its season baseline.

What This Game Is About

Biggest Advantage

Yankees bring the more power-hitting profile, while Rays lean on being contact-oriented.

Swing Factor

Max Fried strikes hitters out at a 24.0% clip (70th percentile); Rays carry a 17.6% strikeout rate.

Momentum

Rays are trending down and Yankees are trending up over their last 10 games.

Key Matchups

Can Max Fried miss enough bats?
Max Fried strikes hitters out at a 24.0% clip (70th percentile); Rays carry a 17.6% strikeout rate.
Edge · RaysMax Fried: 24.0% K rateRays: 17.6% K rateHigh confidence
Can Max Fried limit Rays' power?
Rays rank in the 33rd percentile in extra-base production, while Max Fried sits in the 92nd percentile at suppressing total bases.
Edge · Max FriedRays: 0.343 TB/PAMax Fried: 0.242 TB/PA allowed (417 PA)High confidence
Can Drew Rasmussen miss enough bats?
Drew Rasmussen strikes hitters out at a 24.1% clip (70th percentile); Yankees carry a 23.4% strikeout rate.
Edge · Drew RasmussenDrew Rasmussen: 24.1% K rateYankees: 23.4% K rateHigh confidence
How do Rays handle left-handers?
Rays have produced worse against left-handers this season (0.315 vs. 0.343 TB/PA overall).
Edge · Max Friedvs left-handers: 0.315 TB/PA (1935 PA)overall: 0.343 TB/PAModerate confidence
Can Drew Rasmussen command the strike zone?
Yankees walk in 9.2% of trips; Drew Rasmussen allows walks sparingly (4.3%).
Edge · Drew RasmussenYankees: 9.2% walk rateDrew Rasmussen: 4.3% walks allowedHigh confidence

Pitcher Trends

Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
Tampa Bay Rays · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts5.1/start
Hits allowed4.4/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 65 or fewer Strikeouts — 4 of last 6
24% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.
Max Fried
Max Fried
New York Yankees · 8 starts
SP
Strikeouts5.4/start
Hits allowed3.6/start
4 or fewer Hits Allowed — 4 of last 64 or fewer Strikeouts — 3 of last 6
24% K rate
Per-start form only — opponent lineup, park, and pitch count aren't modeled.

Player Trends

Austin Wells
Austin Wells
New York Yankees · 0.194 hit rate · 0.484 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L105 / 10L2511 / 253-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 95% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 9 games.
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.273 hit rate · 0.455 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L53 / 5L108 / 10L2515 / 252-game hit streak
Total bases per PA is up 50% over his prior baseline, with hits in 5 of his last 7 games. He has trimmed his strikeout rate to 9%.
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger
New York Yankees · 0.341 hit rate · 0.591 TB/PA
Heating up
recent games · 1+ hit
L54 / 5L108 / 10L2520 / 25
Total bases per PA is up 66% over his prior baseline, with hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.071 hit rate · 0.071 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L50 / 5L103 / 10L2514 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 19%.
Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees · 0.118 hit rate · 0.294 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L52 / 5L105 / 10L2513 / 25
On-base rate is down 51% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 5 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 59%.
Cedric Mullins
Cedric Mullins
Tampa Bay Rays · 0.067 hit rate · 0.067 TB/PA
Cooling off
recent games · 1+ hit
L51 / 5L103 / 10L2511 / 25
Total bases per PA is down 77% over his prior baseline, with hits in 1 of his last 6 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 27%.

Players Positioned to Succeed

78
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
75
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 1st, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Recent hit rate has cooled
74
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
70
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
1+ Hit
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it stands out
Batting 2nd, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
66
George Lombard Jr.
George Lombard Jr.
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 5th, confirmed lineup
No notable risk
64
Spencer Jones
Spencer Jones
1+ Hit
New York Yankees
Why it stands out
Batting 6th, confirmed lineup
Main risk
Ice cold — 3 hits in the last 25 plate appearances

Expected Game Shape

BalancedLow confidence

Competitive profile without a clear stylistic tilt. Yankees bring stronger recent momentum. Yankees bring more power. Starting pitching is likely to set the tone.

Early edge Rays Driver No single dominant factor Volatility Elevated
  • Both probable starters grade around the 80th percentile in combined suppression.
  • Rays are trending down; Yankees are trending up.

Storylines to Watch

Can Yankees handle Drew Rasmussen's strikeout stuff?
Yankees have been a below-average contact team while Drew Rasmussen misses bats at an above-average rate — a swing factor early.
Yankees contact percentile: 13
Does Yankees' power tilt the game?
Yankees bring a clearly stronger extra-base profile into this matchup.
Rays power pct 33 vs Yankees 80
Can Yandy Diaz snap out of it?
Yandy Diaz has cooled off. Total bases per PA is down 82% over his prior baseline, with hits in 2 of his last 9 games. His strikeout rate has climbed to 19%.
0.071 hit rate · 0.071 TB/PA · 0.259 hit rate · 0.400 TB/PA
Based on plate appearances before 2026-09-22, with today's posted lineups when available. Injuries, weather, bullpen availability, and park factors are not yet included.